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Starting Pitcher Dynasty Rankings for Fantasy Baseball

As the 2021 MLB season approaches, it's a good time to take stock of the dynasty landscape. We've examined hitters at first base, second base, third base, shortstop, and outfield. Now it's time to dive into the player pool for starting pitchers.

Starters are increasingly difficult to project long-term with the steadily-increasing limitations being placed on young arms. We may not see the same level of pitch count or innings restrictions as we did in 2020, assuming the COVID chaos ever ends, but teams are still being cautious with their prospects. I tend to prioritize players with a greater likelihood to contribute sooner than future value, so bear that in mind.

Here are my dynasty SP rankings along with some thoughts on key players as spring creeps ever closer.

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Dynasty Starting Pitcher Rankings

Ranking Tier Player Name Overall
1 1 Jacob deGrom 15
2 1 Gerrit Cole 17
3 1 Shane Bieber 19
4 2 Walker Buehler 29
5 2 Aaron Nola 33
6 2 Jack Flaherty 39
7 2 Lucas Giolito 40
8 2 Luis Castillo 44
9 2 Trevor Bauer 46
10 2 Yu Darvish 48
11 2 Jesus Luzardo 49
12 2 Max Fried 50
13 2 Blake Snell 53
14 2 Brandon Woodruff 55
15 2 Zac Gallen 56
16 2 Max Scherzer 58
17 2 Tyler Glasnow 59
18 3 Sixto Sanchez 67
19 3 Chris Paddack 69
20 3 Stephen Strasburg 71
21 3 Ian Anderson 72
22 3 Dustin May 73
23 3 Kenta Maeda 75
24 3 Dinelson Lamet 80
25 4 Clayton Kershaw 91
26 4 Jose Berrios 94
27 4 Zach Plesac 96
28 4 Corbin Burnes 98
29 4 Casey Mize 101
30 4 Frankie Montas 103
31 4 Sonny Gray 107
32 5 Nate Pearson 109
33 5 MacKenzie Gore 110
34 5 Jose Urquidy 112
35 5 Zack Greinke 113
36 5 Zack Wheeler 115
37 5 Hyun-Jin Ryu 116
38 5 Lance Lynn 119
39 5 Julio Urias 122
40 5 Shohei Ohtani 124
41 5 Patrick Corbin 126
42 5 Triston McKenzie 131
43 5 Luis Severino 134
44 5 Mike Clevinger 138
45 5 Mike Soroka 140
46 5 Sandy Alcantara 142
47 6 German Marquez 148
48 6 Kyle Hendricks 150
49 6 Noah Syndergaard 153
50 6 Tarik Skubal 155
51 6 Carlos Carrasco 158
52 6 Framber Valdez 160
53 6 Tony Gonsolin 162
54 6 Dylan Bundy 180
55 7 Spencer Howard 187
56 7 Justin Verlander 189
57 7 Eduardo Rodriguez 190
58 7 Luis Patino 191
59 7 Justus Sheffield 196
60 7 Griffin Canning 197
61 7 Forrest Whitley 198
62 7 Brady Singer 199
63 7 Kyle Wright 200
64 7 David Price 201
65 7 Trevor Rogers 206
66 7 Reid Detmers 207
67 7 Pablo Lopez 209
68 7 Dane Dunning 213
69 7 Chris Sale 214
70 7 Lance McCullers Jr. 221
71 8 Charlie Morton 222
72 8 Matt Manning 223
73 8 Deivi Garcia 226
74 8 A.J. Puk 229
75 8 Robbie Ray 230
76 8 Mitch Keller 233
77 8 Carlos Martinez 236
78 8 Tyler Mahle 242
79 8 Domingo German 250
80 9 Joe Musgrove 252
81 9 Cristian Javier 254
82 9 Max Meyer 256
83 9 Aaron Civale 257
84 9 Corey Kluber 259
85 9 Madison Bumgarner 269
86 9 Michael Kopech 270
87 9 Luke Weaver 273
88 9 Brendan McKay 276
89 10 Kris Bubic 282
90 10 Zach Eflin 289
91 10 Kevin Gausman 291
92 10 Sean Manaea 295
93 10 Jameson Taillon 296
94 10 Kwang Hyun Kim 302
95 10 Marcus Stroman 303
96 10 Andrew Heaney 309
97 11 Clarke Schmidt 312
98 11 Adbert Alzolay 317
99 11 Marco Gonzales 318
100 11 Alec Mills 321
101 11 Adrian Morejon 323
102 11 Hunter Greene 325
103 11 John Means 326
104 11 Jon Gray 329
105 11 Caleb Smith 330
106 11 Matthew Boyd 334
107 11 Yusei Kikuchi 336
108 11 Asa Lacy 339
109 11 Drew Smyly 346
110 11 Nick Lodolo 347
111 11 Zach Davies 349
112 11 Dylan Cease 355
113 11 Mike Foltynewicz 357
114 11 Taijuan Walker 358
115 12 Dean Kremer 363
116 12 Michael Pineda 365
117 12 David Peterson 369
118 12 Dallas Keuchel 370
119 12 Johnny Cueto 373
120 12 Jake Odorizzi 379
121 12 Keegan Akin 381
122 12 James Paxton 383
123 12 Kyle Gibson 386
124 12 Bryse Wilson 387
125 12 Mike Minor 388
126 13 Elieser Hernandez 389
127 13 Logan Gilbert 392
128 13 Danny Duffy 394
129 13 JT Brubaker 407
130 13 Nathan Eovaldi 408
131 13 Anderson Espinoza 414
132 13 Jordan Balazovic 418
133 13 Miles Mikolas 421
134 13 Kyle Freeland 425
135 13 Joey Lucchesi 436
136 13 Jordan Lyles 439
137 13 Brent Honeywell Jr. 442
138 13 Steven Matz 443
139 13 Nick Neidert 444
140 13 Tyler Beede 451
141 13 Justin Dunn 461
142 13 Ross Stripling 463
143 14 Merrill Kelly 467
144 14 Daniel Lynch 468
145 14 Michael Fulmer 471
146 14 Josiah Gray 475
147 14 Jose Quintana 476
148 14 Brad Keller 480
149 14 Yonny Chirinos 481
150 14 Ranger Suarez 483
151 14 DL Hall 488
152 14 Matthew Liberatore 490
153 14 Adrian Houser 491
154 14 Jose Urena 492
155 14 Reynaldo Lopez 496
156 14 Brent Suter 497
157 15 George Kirby 503
158 15 Rich Hill 511
159 15 Cade Cavalli 513
160 15 Kyle Funkhouser 523
161 15 Chris Bassitt 529
162 15 Jackson Kowar 531
163 15 Brailyn Marquez 535
164 15 Logan Webb 537
165 15 Joe Ross 538
166 15 Kendall Graveman 543
167 15 Vince Velasquez 545
168 15 Grayson Rodriguez 548
169 15 Jordan Montgomery 558
170 15 Jon Duplantier 560
171 15 Simeon Woods-Richardson 562
172 15 Ryan Yarbrough 569
173 15 Asher Wojciechowski 574
174 15 Tejay Antone 575
175 15 James Kaprielian 576
176 15 Anthony DeSclafani 578
177 15 Dillon Tate 580
178 15 Trent Thornton 582
179 15 Corbin Martin 588
180 15 Logan Verrett 589
181 15 Touki Toussaint 592
182 15 Austin Gomber 598
183 15 Mick Abel 603
184 15 Kolby Allard 604
185 15 Erick Fedde 605
186 15 Braxton Garrett 606
187 15 Yadier Alvarez 609
188 15 Sean Newcomb 616
189 15 Jeff Hoffman 617
190 15 Adam Plutko 623
191 15 Riley Pint 625
192 15 Anthony Kay 629
193 15 Austin Voth 633
194 15 Jorge Guzman 637
195 15 Randy Dobnak 640
196 15 Edward Cabrera 645
197 15 Eric Lauer 664
198 15 Josh Lindblom 668
199 15 Joey Wentz 671
200 15 Spencer Turnbull 672
201 15 Kohei Arihara 674
202 15 Adam Wainwright 684
203 15 Daniel Ponce de Leon 693
204 15 Chad Kuhl 698
205 15 Carlos Rodon 699
206 15 Trevor Williams 702
207 16 Cal Quantrill 705
208 16 Alex Wood 708
209 16 Jakob Junis 709
210 16 Michael Wacha 711
211 16 Cole Hamels 712
212 16 Shane McClanahan 715
213 16 Franklin Perez 717
214 16 Jake Arrieta 718
215 16 Jhoan Duran 719
216 16 J.B. Bukauskas 720
217 16 Tyler Anderson 722
218 16 Dakota Hudson 725
219 16 Sean Reid-Foley 726
220 16 Collin McHugh 728
221 16 Luis Medina 738
222 16 Jordan Yamamoto 740
223 16 Emerson Hancock 747
224 16 Garrett Richards 748


Preseason Thoughts

First things first - age has no bearing on the top three starters and the order is the same regardless of redraft or dynasty. Shane Bieber might have a few years on Cole and deGrom but there's no way I can comfortably forecast him to repeat his 2020 performance or assure that he'll match the production of those two over the next couple of seasons. The short season and Centralized schedule (read: weaker offensive competition) do have some bearing on this but the projection systems agree. Bieber is forecast by ATC to post a mortal 3.19 ERA with an 11.39 K/9 that is slightly less than Cole and deGrom. Projecting wins is tricky but the Indians are trending down while the Mets and Yanks are in full win-now mode, so give the nod to the other two there as well.

There is some question as to whether Jack Flaherty is a legitimate ace but there shouldn't be. His 2020 ratios are ugly for an SP1 (4.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) but one outlier start against the Brewers single-handedly accounted for half of the runs he allowed all season; he didn't allow more than three ER in any other start. His batted-ball numbers took a dip in the shortened season but his Whiff rate remained strong as ever.

At 25 years old, Flaherty should hover around the top-five for a while.

Sixto Sanchez is a perfect example of how quickly fantasy players move on to the next shiny new toy. The top prospect for Miami debuted early in 2020, pitched to a 3.46 ERA, 1.21 WHIP in his first seven Major League starts, and showed his trademark velocity while commanding the strike zone with a 7% BB%. Yet, some are jumping ship on him ever becoming an ace because his strikeout rate was slightly below league average in a 39-inning sample. Some are going so far as to make a Sandy Alcantara comp as a hard-throwing pitcher who doesn't induce enough whiffs. His 13% Swinging Strike suggests positive regression in K-rate. Plus, the whole being 22 years old and barely tasting the bigs might leave some room for improvement. He can't be treated like a surefire ace yet but this may be the time to buy rather than sell.

I really want to rank Dustin May higher because every time I watch him pitch, I feel like he's going to strike out the side. That hasn't been happening nearly at the clip we'd like to see, though. This is another case where fantasy managers are left wanting more but must be patient. He may start the year in the minors now that the Dodgers have a glut of starting pitchers but this also presents an opportunity to pounce on him in the trade market.

Jose Urquidy is a sabermetric enigma. His standard stats were great in 2020: 2.73 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and a 6.9% walk rate well below league average. His Statcast page screams "Fraud!"

While this may suggest luck was involved, other advanced indicators disagree with that notion. According to the Quality of Stuff metric developed by Ethan Moore and Eno Sarris, Urquidy's 114 QOS+ (league-average is 100) is among the best in the majors. His 110 Command+ is also superior. Although his strikeout rate took a nosedive last season, his track record indicates that shouldn't be a concern. Urquidy's value could be all over the place in fantasy leagues heading into 2021, so it's hard to assess the best course of action other than to hold if you have him.

Tyler Mahle is one of my favorite breakout candidates and I'm not the only one. Eric Samulski does a fantastic job breaking down his pitch profile here. At 26 years of age with just over 300 MLB innings of work under his belt, this is a strong hold in dynasty.

Luis Patino has an electric arm but will need to reel it in big-time to be an effective starter. He should be able to work on his control in the minors before getting another call-up, this time with the Rays. The biggest prize of the Blake Snell trade, Patino flashed his fastball that can top 100 on the radar gun while striking out 21 batters in 17 innings last year. He also walked 14 in that span. It will take some time before he effectively replaces Snell both in Tampa and in fantasy value but he has the stuff to do it. The concern is that he doesn't put it together consistently enough and gets relegated to the bullpen. If there's a team that can get the most out of its pitchers, however, it's the Rays.

Aaron Civale doesn't get the juices flowing like Zach Plesac, but maybe he will soon enough.

Civale will have to keep his ratios pretty low for the fantasy world to take notice because he isn't getting it done in the strikeout department. Civale's superb 5.9% BB% is offset by the meh of his 21.3% K% after two MLB seasons. His 106 Command+ is promising but nowhere near Zach Davies (120) or Kyle Hendricks (115) level, so he may not be the second coming of these undervalued SP. There isn't enough swing-and-miss in his minor league track record to suggest a big bump in K-rate either. Plesac's command was beyond superior last year, registering a 2.9% BB% bested only by Marco Gonzales and... Kyle Hendricks. Can he repeat his 91.7% strand rate? That remains to be seen but don't be surprised if slight regression comes to impact his ratios. His advantage over Civale remains the increased Ks.

At this point, Pirates fans probably don't even care anymore so we might as well orchestrate a trade out of the Steel City for Mitch Keller. Another promising pitching prospect who has flopped in the bigs, Keller posted a league-worst 6.94 SIERA and 20.7% BB% that was higher than his 18.9% K%. That's right, a negative K-BB%. He was one of only two starters with at least 20 IP in 2020 to pull off that feat. Maybe a new pitching coach and an improved infield defense (let's not discuss run support) will do the trick. Keller is supposedly tweaking his changeup to incorporate it more as well. Right now, Keller is nothing but a buy-low target that could be worth a flier.

Clarke Schmidt was a promising name entering spring training but he has an injury similar to "tennis elbow" that will shut him down for four weeks and eliminate any chance he might crack the rotation by Opening Day. The good news is that his UCL is clean and the injury is simply one from overuse and not an indication of a serious issue. His value will be depressed momentarily as a result of this injury but that may simply serve to make him a trade target in dynasty. The 25-year-old is the Yankees' No. 2 prospect.


Deeper Options to Watch

One of my favorite late-round sleepers this year is unsurprisingly one of my favorite dynasty targets as well. Adbert Alzolay isn't the top pitching prospect for the Cubbies - that would be Brailyn Marquez. He is the one that will make a splash in the majors first, though. Alzolay has fanned 42 hitters in his first 33 2/3 innings of work in the majors and will continue to parlay his fastball-slider combo into whiffs. His 112 QOS+ ranks 11th out of 200 in Eno Sarris' starting pitcher ranks. If the walk rate gets reduced, we have a potential frontline fantasy starter.

Hunter Greene is one of the hardest-throwing prospects out there, topping 100 MPH on the regular before TJS came calling in 2019. He was able to throw at Cincinnati's alternate site last season, however, and should be ready to get back on the mound full-time in 2021. His first spring appearance was noteworthy because he topped triple digits on the radar gun with each of his first three pitches. Then he gave up a single, HBP, and three-run blast. There will be command issues to iron out and the offspeed stuff needs to catch up to his heat in terms of effectiveness, but the ceiling remains sky-high and the lost year has suppressed his value.

Adrian Morejon projects as a starter long-term but should work in long relief for the Padres and their suddenly stacked rotation. Morejon relies mostly on his 97 MPH heater but also works in a curve-change-slider mix to keep hitters off balance. He struck out 31.6% of batters over 19 innings last year and has the ability to maintain that rate but it could also come with a high walk rate as evidenced by his minor league track record. In his first spring outing, Morejon issued three free passes over two innings, which is a bit ominous. Patience is key here.

The Cardinals sure hope Matthew Liberatore turns into something special, considering one of the players traded for him was Randy Arozarena. The 6'4" lefty is another prospect whose arrival will be delayed due to the cancellation of last year's minor league season. He has a strong four-pitch mix that includes a wicked curveball. Unlike many other pitching prospects, there are no current health concerns with Liberatore.

Cole Winn has similar stuff to Liberatore but from the right side. He potentially has four plus-pitches but his four-seamer and curve lead the way. Winn is just 21 and yet to pitch above Single-A so a late-2022 debut is the earliest I can imagine him sniffing the majors. He is a stash candidate to keep in mind, especially considering the way the new Globe Life Park plays more favorably to pitchers.

D.L. Hall is also yet to reach Double-A but at 22, he could advance quicker for a pitching (talent)-starved franchise. He was touted as the second-best lefty of the 2017 draft class behind Mackenzie Gore, boasting a fastball that reaches 99 now. Those looking to accumulate high-upside arms should seek out Hall now.

The Phillies will start Spencer Howard in the minors to work on the command issues that plagued him in 2020. There are a couple of other pitching prospects worth monitoring as well, though. Adonis Medina dominated the lower-level minors before taking a step back in Double-A, especially in strikeout rate. His offspeed stuff plays up but his mediocre fastball movement may cap his ceiling. Enyel De Los Santos doesn't have the ceiling of some of the blue-chip prospects listed above but he is a player worth watching. His early Major League experience hasn't been encouraging with a 5.70 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 8.7% K-BB% over 30 innings. He has the frame to hold us as a starter and command isn't an issue. Mick Abel ranks as the organization's No. 2 prospect but he won't arrive until 2024, so extreme patience is required.

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Javonte Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 Free Agency Preview: Biggest Positional Needs for the Denver Broncos

The duo of Russell Wilson and Sean Payton wasn't enough to bring Denver out of mediocrity and because of that, the organization is looking at making a massive move this offseason -- cutting Russell Wilson. His play doesn't justify the contract, that's true, but Wilson wasn't the problem. He played pretty well, all things considered.... Read More

Caleb Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

2024 NFL Mock Draft - Making All 32 Fan Bases Happy

Predicting the first round of the NFL Draft is a futile exercise. The “best” mock drafts have a hit rate lower than Kyle Schwarber’s batting average, which probably explains why there are so many of them floating about. Here, we won’t be trying to predict the future of the 2024 NFL Draft. Instead, we will... Read More

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buys and Sells - 2023 Rookie Class Edition

As dynasty managers turn their attention to the 2024 NFL Draft, now is the perfect time to look back at the 2023 rookie class. Bijan Robinson was the clear top prospect and the 1.01 in both non-Superflex and one-quarterback leagues. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the top wide receiver in the class, while Anthony Richardson battled Bryce... Read More

Will Levis - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

2024 Free Agency Preview: Biggest Positional Needs for the Tennessee Titans in 2024

It's a new day in Tennessee. We just don't know yet if it's a sunny day, a gloomy day, or a day filled with thunderstorms and a potential tornado. They're making the right decision moving on from Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. Moving on from Mike Vrabel...that one we cannot answer yet. This trio has... Read More

Michael Pittman Jr -Fantasy-Football-Rankings-Draft-Sleepers-Waiver-Wire-Pickups-icon-rotoballer

2024 Free Agency Preview: Biggest Positional Needs for the Indianapolis Colts in 2024

The Colts were impressive in Shane Steichen's first year as a head coach. While they missed the playoffs, the team finished with a winning record and were in playoff contention through the entire season. Their first-round draft pick, quarterback Anthony Richardson, played just four games, making the team's performance even more of an accomplishment. Given... Read More

2024 NFL Draft Top 10 TE Rankings: Pre-Combine Rookie Tight Ends Analysis

The Super Bowl might be over, but football season never ends at RotoBaller! The countdown is on for 2024 fantasy football drafts with NFL teams and fantasy football fans preparing for the 2024 Combine and upcoming Draft. Matt Donnelly discusses his favorite tight ends in the 2024 NFL Draft class and ranks his top-10 pre-combine... Read More

Michael Penix Jr. - CFB DFS Picks, Daily College Fantasy Football, NFL Draft Rookies

Will Michael Penix Jr. Be A First-Round Pick? 2024 NFL Draft Outlook

Former Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will be a popular name in the 2024 NFL Draft. After spending his first four college seasons at Indiana (2018-2021), Penix revived his career by transferring to Washington and putting up big numbers. The gun-slinging lefty finished eighth in Heisman Voting in 2022 and then as the runner-up to... Read More