October 19, 2025
Chase Elliott became a long shot to advance to the Championship 4 after a disappointing day at Las Vegas, where he suffered a penalty for a runaway tire, then was minorly involved in the late race 11-car pileup, which resulted in an 18th-place finish. Since he's now 23 points behind his fellow Chase (Briscoe) for the final playoff transfer spot, Elliott might need to win, and he only starts 25th. But Elliott has already won at Talladega twice, and he might be the best driver here. At a track where raw speed doesn't matter as much as passing, Elliott's top-notch passing ability makes him a contender nearly every time out here. He seemed more dominant with the Gen 6 car than the Next Gen, but he has actually not crashed out in a Next Gen race yet, making him one of the few. There are no sure things at Talladega, but Elliott is certainly the best DFS option probabilistically.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
After months of complacency, William Byron now may be approaching a must-win scenario as his crash at Las Vegas coupled with Denny Hamlin's win will make it a lot more difficult to make the Championship 4. He might not need to win if he doesn't crash at Talladega and one of the other playoff contenders does. Although Byron has not yet won at Talladega (unlike Daytona or Atlanta), he's probably been more consistent here as he has finished seventh or better in 7 of his last 10 starts including his last five. Although often he doesn't lead much, he's pretty consistently been one of the drivers in the hunt for the lead. He's been consistent enough that he's actually a pretty solid option for DFS play, especially since he only starts 13th. However his teammate Chase Elliott is just as consistent, starting even worse, and cheaper so you should start him instead.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Qualifying dominance on other tracks doesn't necessarily carry over to Talladega, but it did for Chase Briscoe, who qualified second to earn his 12th front row start. Although Briscoe only finished 15th in the spring, he led 20 laps and his 15-lap stint out front from laps 26-40 was the second-longest such stint in the race behind his teammate Ty Gibbs. That isn't necessarily a good thing though as in the cases of both Briscoe and Gibbs, the fact that they burnt more fuel while in the lead probably hurt their finish relative to drivers who keep passing and re-passing each other for the lead who are more likely to win. Briscoe has sometimes been awkward on drafting tracks as he won the pole for the Daytona 500 before causing the big one, being penalized, then having that penalty rescinded. Briscoe is unusually cheap, but not a good option since he'll likely finish way worse than second.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Although Kyle Larson isn't particularly known as a drafting-track master -- he has yet to win any races either using the classic restrictor plates or the more recent tapered spacers -- he is improving and finished fourth and second in the last two Talladega races despite not really contending for the win. The Hendrick cars are always fast at Talladega, although Chase Elliott and William Byron usually tend to be faster. Larson led 32 laps in the first Next Gen race here in 2022, but aside from that, he's never led more than eight. In an era when there aren't nearly as many crashes as there used to be, Larson will probably finish better than his 19th-place starting position, making him likely to be both a top-tier DFS option and to advance to the Championship Round in the NASCAR playoffs.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Tyler Reddick won the spring race at Talladega in 2024, but it was a little cheap as the Toyotas were the first manufacturer to make their final pit stop in that race, which vaulted Reddick into the lead after the crash John Hunter Nemechek triggered took out most of the others. Since that allowed him to restart on the front row, he simply maintained his position en route to win, but that had more to do with manufacturer strategy than Reddick's own driving. Unlike his teammate Bubba Wallace, he hasn't really been a consistent threata on drafting tracks and indeed that win was the only time he finished bette than seventh, or bette than 14th in the Next Gen era. In a year when he has lost a lot of his top-end speed, he probably won't win and he'll likely finish worse than his starting position of 15th, making him a mediocre option for DFS play.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Although Trackhouse Racing's speed has seriously stagnated on ovals lately, that doesn't matter at Talladega, where many races aren't decided on speed. Ross Chastain won here once in 2022 when he almost stumbled into the lead and led only one lap after Erik Jones' drafting help crashed behind him. He factors for the lead more often than not, but his fourth-place finish in the 2022 fall event was the only other time he earned a top-10 finish. Still, he is always fast at drafting tracks, and at 24th, he starts worse than most of the drivers you could argue are better than him, which means he'll likely earn a fair amount of place-differential points. Additionally, at $8,100, he's cheaper than most of those same drivers, so although there's never a truly great option for DFS at Talladega, Chastain is as safe as it gets.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Although he has seemed a lot slower this year than in previous seasons, Chris Buescher's greatest strength is that he arguably crashes less than any other driver on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit. This year, he has only crashed out of a race once, but that came in this spring's race at Talladega when a failed bump draft from Denny Hamlin sent Hamlin's teammate Christopher Bell into his fellow Chris as they battled for the lead, sending both into the inside retaining wall. That crash was pretty unavoidable, but Buescher's knack for avoiding wrecks in general is his greatest asset. However, despite that, he has surprisingly only finished in the top ten at Talladega three times and the to five only once in 2023. The RFK Racing Fords don't seem to have Team Penske's speed and since Buescher starts in the top half of the field in 14th, you probably don't want to start him.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Ty Gibbs starts 18th at Talladega on Sunday, a track where he has never finished better than 13th. However, he had a great deal of speed in the spring race, leading a race-high 32 laps before the extra fuel he burnt running out front caused many other drivers to jump him after the final exchange of pit stops. Gibbs also led 32 laps at Atlanta, so he is becoming a skillful drafter. Whether he contends for the win will almost certainly depend on whether Toyota has the right strategy for this race, since it seems like whoever leads after the final round of pit stops will win. Austin Cindric utilized a killer strategy to get out of the pits first in the spring race after botching the strategy at Daytona and Talladega, so if Gibbs' crew chief Tyler Allen is paying attention, he might be able to replicate that feat, but don't count on it.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
After Justin Haley was released from Spire Motorsports this week, many observers are expecting Daniel Suárez to be his replacement. One way of likely ensuring that would be if he wins at Talladega today. The Trackhouse Racing cars have tended to consistently have speed on these tracks, what with Ross Chastain winning the first Next Gen race here in 2022 and Suárez leading 28 laps in that race and earning top ten finishes in four of the six races since, but he's neve finished better than eighth here and over half his career laps led came in that one race. Suárez has a knack for emerging at the finish of these races, so he might be worth considering for Place Differential points, especially because he starts a mere 26th. He certainly has a lot on the line.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Considering the dominance the Fords in general and the Penske Fords in particular have shown on drafting tracks in recent years, it wouldn't come as much surprise if Josh Berry won at Talladega on Sunday, especially after the inferior Harrison Burton already won at Daytona in the Penske-aligned Wood Brothers car last year. However, in general, you don't want to start drivers who start near the front for DFS play on drafting tracks since finishes are far less predictable at this track type than any other, meaning drivers are far more likely to lose positions when starting at the front here than anywhere else, and Berry starts sixth. Furthermore, even if you were considering him for lap-leader points, Talladega races have fewer laps than any other oval (188), so Berry is probably not a good choice, especially since he's never finished better than 16th here.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 19, 2025
Although Austin Dillon has won two drafting-track races, both of those came at Daytona, where he roughed up the leader. Although theoretically anyone could win at Talladega, Dillon seems like he would have only the remotest chance because to win at Talladega, you still need to be able to put yourself in the lead, and even though Dillon has earned seven top-10 finishes at Talladega, including each of the last two races, he has only led four career laps here. Since the last few Talladega races haven't even been very crash-prone, the likelihood of him backing into a win is less likely than you would think as well. He may still be worthy of consideration for place-differential points since he only starts 21st, but there are probably better choices starting worse.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 13, 2025
Although Christopher Bell has not been as dominant as in previous years, he's having arguably his most consistent season with a series-best 11.4 average finish. Those trends continued in yesterday's race at Las Vegas as he never led in a race where his teammate Chase Briscoe won the pole and his other teammate Denny Hamlin won the race while he finished third, but he consistently ran in the to ten for nearly the entire race and his average running position of 7th was not much worse than Hamlin or Briscoe's. Bell has arguably been a little too complacent this year in going for consistency over wins in a championship format where he will likely need to win at Phoenix to win the championship. However, he's definitely had a knack for clutch victories when he has a significant opportunity to win. Because he had no bad luck while other drivers did, he sits third in points, 20 ahead of William Byror for the final transfer spot in the Championship Round. With no bad luck (which is definitely a questionable thing to say entering Talladega), he should likely advance but it's by no means guaranteed.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 13, 2025
Chase Briscoe did what he needed to do to hold serve in the NASCAR playoffs on Sunday. After qualifying second, he blew around his teammate Denny Hamlin on the opening lap and led the first 35 laps until William Byron beat him out of the pits on the first green-flag pit cycle. Briscoe consistently ran in the top 10 (falling no worse than eighth outside of pit cycles), but resurfaced in the lead when he took two tires on the race's final caution. Although Joey Logano beat him to the start-finish line on the restart, Briscoe outdueled Logano before Hamlin returned the favor and passed Briscoe for the win with four laps remaining on his four fresh tires. Briscoe fell to fourth, where he also sits in the standings. Thanks to the bad luck other drivers faced, Briscoe now holds a 15-point lead on Byron for the final transfer spot to the championship round.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 13, 2025
Although Joey Logano has a knack for winning the first race of the penultimate round of the NASCAR playoffs en route to the championship, he perhaps surprisingly wasn't much of a factor in Sunday's Las Vegas race. After starting ninth, he consistently ran in the back of the top 10 until a pit stop during the Stage 2 caution relegated him to the middle of the pack. He never really recovered until a two-tire stop on the race's final caution elevated him to second. He ultimately fell to sixth when the cars that took four tires passed him, leading one lap when he beat Chase Briscoe to the line on the final restart. However, while he benefited from William Byron and his teammate Ryan Blaney's crashes, he was so far behind on playoff points to begin with that he remains a long shot to make the Championship 4, especially since he's a lot less likely to win than Blaney or Byron are. He now sits 48 points out of the points lead and 24 points below the playoff cut line.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 13, 2025
Ryan Blaney had a nightmare situation befall him in the first race of the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs on Sunday at Las Vegas. After qualifying 14th, Blaney did not make much progress, consistently running between 12th and 14th, until a blown tire sent him straight into the wall with nine laps remaining in Stage 1. The car could not be prepared, resulting in a last-place finish in 38th. Moreover, the fact that he scored no stage points while the other seven remaining playoffs drivers all did, left him in a precarious position in eighth in points, 55 points behind eventual winner and points leader Denny Hamlin, and 31 points behind Chase Briscoe for the final transfer spot. Blaney is already in a situation where he will likely need to win at either Talladega or Martinsville to advance to the championship round, but he could definitely do it.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
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