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Dave offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 18. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.
Well, we have reached the final weekend of the 2025-2026 NFL regular season. The playoffs will begin next weekend. For now, though, we have one more chance to grind out a profit on sides/totals and player props.
Week 18 is a notoriously tricky week for handicapping. Different teams have different motivations. It's not always clear who will and won't be playing their starters or shutting down their top stars. Fortunately, the NFL now configures the schedule in a way to motivate many teams to put their best foot forward in Week 18. This helps give us some clarity, but there are still instances where we aren't quite sure how teams will proceed. That means Week 18 is one where you shouldn't have a super large betting portfolio. Still, we'll do our best to navigate these murky waters and close the regular season on a high note.
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Let's discuss some of my favorite NFL bets and player props on Novig for Week 18.
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook. The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus
Use code BALLER, and you'll receive a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.
You also get a free month of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!
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How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
For example, if you set the odds of the Panthers to win on Sunday at +150, then anyone can flip the bet and take the Buccaneers to win at -150 on their end.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
NFL Week 18 Picks Against the Spread
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-101 NOVIG) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Risk 1.01 Units to Win 1 Unit
The Steelers beat the Ravens earlier this year by a score of 27-22. That game saw Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh passing offense completely exploit a porous Ravens secondary. However, with the Steelers missing D.K. Metcalf due to a suspension, that likely will not be the case this time around.
Lamar Jackson is expected to play, and that will only help the Ravens' outlook. Combine that with a healthy dose of Derrick Henry against a Pittsburgh team that's had its share of struggles defending the run, and this looks like a good spot for Baltimore to score a convincing victory and capture the AFC North title.
Los Angeles Rams -7.5 (+100 NOVIG) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Risk .5 Units to Win .5 Units
Rams head coach Sean McVay typically rests starters, but he was very adamant in last week's post-game press conference that the starters would play in Week 18.
Sean McVay: “This is a humbling league and we got humbled tonight.”
Says he won’t rest starters. “We need to play,” citing need for better football. pic.twitter.com/hB7rAEYIFE
— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) December 30, 2025
That doesn't sound like a man who intends to rest players. It's a smart move on McVay's part because the Rams are leaking oil heading into the postseason, and this is the time of year when you want to be playing your best ball.
The Cardinals are a sinking ship and have lost 13 of their last 14 games. If Los Angeles does play the majority of their starters for most of this game, they should have little issue handling Arizona.
Assuming Los Angeles plays everyone, I make the Rams nearly 14-point favorites in this spot. Look for Los Angeles to score a convincing victory to head into the postseason with some much-needed momentum on its side.
NFL Week 18 Passing Prop Bets
C.J. Stroud OVER 211.5 Passing Yards (-114 NOVIG)
Risk .57 Units to Win .5 Units
Stroud has been playing well lately and has eclipsed this total in seven of his last 10 games. The Colts rank 28th in PFF's pass coverage grade and have allowed the second-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this year.
Houston still has an outside shot at the AFC South title, and DeMeco Ryans has stated that Houston's starters will play. That's good news for Stroud's outlook. The Colts also allow the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, so this looks like a spot where Houston could be forced to rely on Stroud and the passing attack to build a large lead.
I'm expecting a strong effort from the Texans here. Look for Stroud to put together another good performance as Houston rolls into the playoffs.
NFL Week 18 Rushing Prop Bets
Travis Etienne Jr. OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110 NOVIG)
Risk .55 Units to Win .5 Units
Etienne has enjoyed a fine season and has a chance to set a new career-high in rushing yards this weekend. However, he's also been very inconsistent and has only eclipsed 80 rushing yards four times.
Despite these issues, this weekend is setting up as a potential boom game for the Jaguars' RB1. Tennessee ranks 23rd in defensive rushing DVOA and has allowed the 10th-most explosive rushing yards per Fantasy Points Data Suite.
With Jacksonville listed as 13.5-point favorites in this game, we are likely looking at a positive game script for Etienne. That should ensure plenty of volume. Playing time also shouldn't be a factor. Jacksonville clinches the AFC South title with a win and still has an outside shot at the AFC's top seed.
Look for Etienne to have one of his better rushing totals of the season as the Jaguars win going away.
Jordan Mason OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards (-119 NOVIG)
Risk .36 Units to Win .3 Units
With Aaron Jones Sr. being ruled out with a hip injury, that leaves Mason to function as the Vikings' RB1. It comes at a good time, as this is a matchup where Mason can excel.
The Packers only rank 23rd in PFF's rushing defense grade and allow over 116 rushing yards per game. Green Bay will also be resting several starters this week. That means Minnesota could build a large lead early, which would mean plenty of volume for Mason.
With this week basically a meaningless game for Green Bay, expect to see the Vikings take care of business and for Mason to enjoy a big game on the ground.
NFL Week 18 Receiving Prop Bets
Luther Burden III OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115 NOVIG)
.38 Units to Win .3 Units
Burden is coming off the best game of his career in Week 17 against the San Francisco 49ers. He caught eight receptions for 138 receiving yards and also scored a touchdown.
CALEB TO LUTHER BURDEN III.
CHIvsSF on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/6u5uwTe724— NFL (@NFL) December 29, 2025
The Lions do rank seventh in defensive passing DVOA, but have also allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to wide receivers this year. With Chicago in play to win the NFC's number two seed, we should see a strong performance from Caleb Williams and the Bears' offense. That would mean good things for Burden, and he is fully capable of taking advantage of this matchup.
Look for another big game from Burden as the Bears close out the regular season in style.
NFL Week 18 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Audric Estime Anytime Touchdown (+189 NOVIG)
Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.89 Units
Even though the Falcons upset the Los Angeles Rams last week, the team still allowed 115 rushing yards and 5.8 yards per carry. This remains one of the worst run defenses in the league.
Estime led all Saints running backs in touches last weekend and ran for 94 rushing yards and scored a rushing touchdown, too.
Audric Estime's first TD as a Saint is electric 🔥
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/WKndwcriyQ
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) December 28, 2025
After watching the Falcons' pass rush give Matthew Stafford fits last Monday night, we will likely see New Orleans rely on its ground game to help rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. That gives Estime a shot at having a big day on the ground, and he'll be live to score again.
That makes Estime a good value pick to find the endzone this weekend.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+186 NOVIG)
Risk .3 Units to Win .85 Units
Rodriguez is back in Washington's lineup this week. Before missing Week 17, it looked as though Rodriguez had cemented himself as Washington's RB1. Running mate Jacory Croskey-Merritt had a huge game in Rodriguez's absence in Week 17 and will probably have some kind of role this week.
However, Rodriguez has been the team's preferred goal-line back. With the Eagles resting starters, we could see the Commanders' offense have some success in this game. With Josh Johnson drawing another start at quarterback, most of Washington's offensive production will likely come through the ground attack. That makes Rodriguez live to score, and I like taking a shot on him at these odds.
Raheim Sanders Anytime Touchdown (+244 NOVIG)
Risk .3 Units to Win .74 Units
Even though Dylan Sampson played last week, he only outcarried Sanders by an 11-8 margin. Sanders is also a bigger body, and we've previously seen Cleveland use him as a goal-line back earlier in the year.
This weekend looks like a great time to take a flyer on Sanders scoring as the Bengals have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. Cincinnati ranks 29th in defensive rushing DVOA and has allowed the ninth-most rushing touchdowns this year.
This game could be closer than some people think. If that's the case, it will likely be due to Cleveland's success on the ground. That means Sanders is live to find the end zone, so I am comfortable taking a small shot on him here to do so.
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