RADIO
Matt McCarty Comes to Austin After a Month Off
Matt McCarty last played golf early in October at the Baycurrent Classic. The American golfer bounced back with a final round 65 after a third round 75. Overall, both Fall events just did not see McCarty impress much (T-53 in Utah and T-50 in Japan. McCarty briefly touched +10000 at DraftKings but has come back to +9600. One of the big worries with the golfer is bogey avoidance (16.61% - 139th). Basically, McCarty ends up bogeying or worse once every six holes. Also, his scoring average in Rounds 1 and 2 is 70.69 which ranks 144th. He is another golfer who probably gets faded here in a more stacked field than usual for the Fall.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Chris Kirk Riding a Fall Wave of Momentum Heading to Texas
Chris Kirk has not won an event this Fall but he has contended several times. The American golfer has three Top 12 results in four events. Kirk's best result was a T-6 in Bermuda but one has to wonder what might have been. Asheville and Bermuda were his best efforts where every round wound up in the 60's. Kirk has been on the plus side in every event when it comes to around the green and approach. Last week, those approach shots set up quite a few extra opportunities at the World Wide Technology Championship. Kirk is a risky wager for bettors but bettors have him pegged sixth at +3000 via DraftKings to win. Kirk is a reasonable +255 for a Top 10 result and that may be something to ponder.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Mackenzie Hughes an All-or-Nothing Possibility at Austin Championship
Mackenzie Hughes wants to bounce back from the World Wide Technology Championship. The Canadian golfer almost won in Mexico (T-4) It has been an up-and-down Fall for Hughes who has three Top 25 results during the Fall season. This is a long course at 7.451 yards. Around the greens has been not great for Hughes and off the tee has been not great in terms of driving accuracy (59.67% - 120th). The hilly course could be a challenge for Hughes. The putter fell flat at El Cardonal and that concern is quite valid for Austin. It may be a plan to fade Hughes from a DFS and betting perspective.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Tom Hoge Heads to Austin Championship After Another Missed Cut
Tom Hoge has had a nightmare of a Fall season. The American golfer has missed three cuts in six events. Hoge even shot an 81 in the opening round of the Baycurrent Classic. Last week, it was a second-round 76 where errant shots and worse started to happen. The final five holes saw Hoge lose five strokes to par. Bogeys on two Par 5's had to raise alarm bells heading into Austin. Overall, Hoge lost 2.05 strokes to putting last week. Only the 2.29 lost at the Valero in April was worse. It may truly be for the best to stay away from the American this week at a new event such as Austin.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Eric Cole Must Watch Out for That One Bad Round in Austin
Eric Cole has had a recurring theme in his three Fall events. The American golfer has had that one bad round that derails any hope. Asheville was a final-round 73. Utah featured a third round of 73, and Bermuda had that windswept 74. He has the ability to start off really well. Cole has fired a 67 or better in six of his previous seven opening rounds. If Cole finds any driving accuracy with rhythm, then look out. He loses half a stroke off the tee alone (157th). For early DFS options, Cole could be utilized, and maybe betting-wise as well early on.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Daniel Berger Returns After Long Layoff in Austin
Daniel Berger has not played competitive golf in almost four months. The American golfer struggled before the layoff including missing cuts in four of the last five tournaments played. Berger's big red flag was the putter. He ranks 121st in strokes gained to putting at -0.187. It gets worse when one dives deeper. Berger ranks 144th in putts per round with 29.45. Worse, his one-putt percentage is 163rd at a mere 36.39%. Second rounds are probably the ugliest where Berger averages 30.22 putts per round. With the uncertainty here, it may be wiser to fade Berger from a DFS or betting standpoint.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Matthieu Pavon Searching for a Much-Needed Breakthrough in Mexico
Matthieu Pavon has struggled for much of the season, making just 11 of 23 cuts with only four top-25 finishes. His recent results follow the same pattern, as he made just one cut in three fall events, finishing T53. He now heads to the VidantaWorld Mexico Open, where he is making his tournament debut. Vidanta Vallarta is a wide-open course with little penalty for missing fairways, so players who hit the ball long off the tee and are strong with their long irons should find success. Pavon ranks 80th in driving distance but 143rd in proximity from over 200 yards, a range that accounted for more than 43% of approach shots here last year. His overall profile is not encouraging either, as he ranks 130th in total strokes gained (-0.402 strokes per round) and 152nd on approach (-0.498), while losing a combined -0.041 strokes per round around the greens and putting. There is little to be excited about in Pavon's game right now, and he is best left out of lineups until he shows signs of a turnaround.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Andrew Novak Looking to Make Another Run in Mexico
Andrew Novak came out firing at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, posting an opening-round 64 before cooling off and ultimately finishing T44. He now turns to the VidantaWorld Mexico Open, where he has recorded finishes of T15, T49, and T8 in three appearances. Success at Vidanta Vallarta typically hinges on distance off the tee and long-iron approach play. Novak ranks 99th in driving distance and 96th in proximity from over 200 yards, a range that accounted for more than 43% of approach shots here last year. He does have a strong overall profile, ranking 62nd on approach (+0.218 strokes per round), 32nd around the greens (+0.225), and 43rd in strokes gained tee to green (+0.497). If he can get his putter to cooperate (158th, -0.492 strokes per round), Novak has a chance to put together another strong tournament in Mexico.
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
Billy Horschel Hoping to Carry Momentum Into Mexico
Billy Horschel has put together a solid run lately, posting finishes of T13 and T21 in his last two starts, and looks to keep it going at the VidantaWorld Mexico Open. This run can be attributed to Horschel's approach game clicking, as he has gained strokes in nine of his last 12 events while ranking 52nd on the season (+0.278 strokes per round). Vidanta Vallarta typically rewards players who are long off the tee, and Horschel ranks just 119th in driving distance. He also sits in just the 54th percentile in proximity from over 200 yards, a range that accounted for more than 43% of approach shots here last year. Despite the questionable course fit, Horschel has momentum on his side and could be an intriguing dark horse option to contend this week.
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
Rasmus Hojgaard in Search of Form at This Week's Mexico Open
It's been a year to forget for Rasmus Hojgaard, who failed to get inside the top 100 on the FedEx Cup points list and has had a withdrawal and a missed cut since the fall swing began. Despite his incredible length off the tee and putting proficiency, the Dane has been abysmal with the irons. He's averaging minus-0.180 strokes gained on approach (ranked 122nd) on the year, and lost a whopping eight-and-a-half strokes over his last two starts. That won't get it done on any professional golf circuit, let alone the PGA Tour. And until he shows some sort of rebound, he's an impossible DFS recommendation.
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
Emiliano Grillo Hoping to Get Back on Track in Mexico
Emiliano Grillo has not been at his best during the fall slate, recording a T52 in Bermuda, a T43 in Utah, and a missed cut at the Biltmore Championship. He looks to get things going again at the VidantaWorld Mexico Open, where he has just one finish better than T33 in four attempts, a T5 in 2023. Success here typically hinges on distance off the tee and long-iron approach play. Grillo ranks just 131st in driving distance, but ranks 58th in proximity from 200+ yards (48'8"), a distance that accounted for more than 43% of approach shots here last year. While Vidanta Vallarta is widely considered a bomber's paradise, Grillo plays a more precision-based game, ranking eighth in driving accuracy and 56th on approach. His short game is also a concern, as he ranks 126th around the greens (-0.135 strokes per round) and 115th in putting (-0.209). Grillo has been struggling as of late, and his lack of distance makes him a risky play in Mexico.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Christiaan Bezuidenhout a Risky Play at Vidanta
Christiaan Bezuidenhout finished T17 at the Baycurrent Classic, his seventh top-25 finish of the season. He now looks to keep it going at the VidantaWorld Mexico Open, where he is making his tournament debut. Vidanta Vallarta is a wide-open course with little penalty for missing fairways, so players who hit the ball long off the tee and are strong with their long irons should find success. Bezuidenhout ranks just 142nd off the tee (-0.343 strokes per round), mainly due to a lack of distance, where he ranks 156th. He is also 150th in proximity from over 200 yards, a distance that accounted for 43.9% of approach shots here last year. His saving grace may be his short game, where he ranks 31st around the greens (+0.233 strokes per round) and 17th in putting (+0.443). Bezuidenhout's lack of distance and poor long-iron play make him a difficult option to trust this week.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Tom Kim an Intriguing Start at Mexico Open Debut
It was a bounce-back season for Tom Kim in 2026, in which he picked up his first victory since 2023 and had a slew of top-20-or-better finishes down the closing stretch. The South Korean was one of the best ball strikers this season, ranking seventh in strokes gained on approach (0.653). Much of his success came when the putter began cooperating, as he spent the first half of the season losing an average of -0.490 strokes on the greens. Compare that to the 0.290 flip to the positive side over his closing 11 events, and it's clear where the boost in his game and tournament finishes came from. He's coming to Vidanta Vallarta for the first time this week, where he'll need both the iron play and flat stick to be sharp. It's a bigger ballpark that has plenty of long approach shots, but Kim should find plenty of birdie-making opportunities to be a useful DFS asset
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
Pierceson Coody Not Getting the Fall Swing Results
Pierceson Coody has not finished better than 50th in three Fall Swing events. The American golfer has two Top 10 results but the last one was way back in February at the WM Phoenix Open. Coody has largely struggled since the start of the summer aside from the US Open and the OPEN Championship. However, the Fall has brought even more issues. Coody floundered during the middle rounds in Asheville (72-71) and Japan (75-72). His numbers have been interesting given how well he has started off (66-67-65). The problem is Round 2 so Coody has DFS potential for the opening round but maybe a fade the rest of the event.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Kevin Roy a Question Mark at the Vidanta World Mexico Open
Kevin Roy endured a tough weekend at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. The American golfer never truly got going, and the 73 in the third round was troubling given all the missed putting chances. Roy did drive the ball solidly (7.2 yards above field average). The Mexican course stands at over 7,400 yards. Roy ranks 69th in driving distance (307.7 yards) and 46th in driving accuracy (64.18%). Did the conditions impact the golfer more in Bermuda, or was it his putter? That is the big concern, as maybe fading Roy from a betting and DFS perspective could be prudent in Mexico.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
