March 3, 2026
This has perhaps been the longest that golf fans have been without seeing Justin Thomas inside the ropes of an official golf tournament. He last competed at the Ryder Cup last September, having undergone microdiscectomy surgery on his lower back shortly after to begin the recovering proccess as early as possible. With such a long layoff and a lone TGL match as the only competition he's seen in five months, there will inevitably be some rust to shake off. It's a tall task to make your first start at Bay Hill and do so with any confidence, which makes him an easy candidate to avoid for that reason alone. The former Tide golfer was not trending well from longer approach ranges to close out last season. Expecting anything from someone who is probably still familiarizing himself with how it feels to hold a club again is stressful business. Look for safer options this week.
--Todd McGillSource: Data Golf
March 3, 2026
After a whirlwind ending on the West Coast for Collin Morikawa that saw him secure his fifth PGA Tour victory at Pebble Beach and a T7 finish at Riviera, the 29-year-old is hitting this important stretch of golf in great form. He gained strokes on the greens in both of his last two starts. He's also leveled out his short game, which makes his overall game back to reaching levels seen when he was winning major championships. Since the beginning of the year, the former Cal Bear is up 20% in approach proximity over 200 yards (39'6"), putting him in the 84th percentile on the PGA Tour. He also has a powerful blend of power and accuracy going for him off the tee. If the switch-up in grass types doesn't throw a wrench in things, he should again be a major DFS contributor.
--Todd McGillSource: Data Golf
March 3, 2026
After the end of last year's regular season and the start of this new one, Tommy Fleetwood has been one of the most popular DFS plays. It will be no surprise to see him again be one of the most-owned players, but there is reason to be skeptical this week. While he doesn't have the worst track record at Bay Hill, it's certainly far from other names at the top of the board, who have continuously shown up at a layout that is among the highest on tour in predictive course history. He has also been subpar in approach play over 200 yards, with a -0.057 strokes gained per shot since the beginning of the year on both the PGA and DP World Tours. The Englishman has counteracted that with a tour-leading short game (+1.107 strokes gained around the green average). The problem isn't necessarily about having Fleetwood in a DFS lineup; it's committing to him beating the likes of Scheffler, McIlroy, and Henley--that is a big ask here.
--Todd McGillSource: Data Golf
March 3, 2026
Adam Scott was a feel good story last week at The Genesis Invitational. The Australian golfer had one bad round on Saturday but followed it up with a scorching 63 that vaulted him to a fourth place result. Scott has played pretty well in his four events this 2026. However, Bay Hill has been a place where he struggles often with par. Scott has been over par in three of his previous four appearances. His lack of birdie runs on the Florida course makes him tough to consider in DFS. Worse, his putter has kind of failed him early in events (30.25 putts per round - 149th). It is those starts which are troubling and can cause lost strokes at Bay Hill.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 3, 2026
Aldrich Potgieter, on the surface, seems to be a decent fit when it comes to Bay Hill. The American golfer hits some long drives (325.8 yds - 3rd) and comes off a T-5 at The Genesis Invitational. Potgieter shot all four rounds in the 60's. However, he is a +15000 longshot via DraftKings to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Potgieter has only one appearance on this course in Florida. He opened with a 79 last year and never fully recovered missing the cut. Potgieter missed the cut in his first three events in 2026. Any gains off the tee have been negated by losses on approach (+0.002 net). From a DFS and betting viewpoint, Potgieter remains a fade for Bay Hill.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 3, 2026
Sungjae Im was believed to be making progress and is now ready to make his 2026 debut at Bay Hill. The South Korean golfer has not played competitive golfer since the Genesis Championship in October. It has been a series of injuries and slow recoveries stemming from a muscle strain in his right hand/wrist. Im thinks he can give it a full go for four rounds at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The last five appearances have seen Im finish in the 18th-21st range with four times Im getting done in by one poor round. Im had three Top 5 results early in 2025 but struggled with form after. He will be one to watch especially to see more how he looks than how Im performs.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 3, 2026
Jordan Spieth is an intriguing golfer for this weekend's Arnold Palmer Invitational. The American has gained the third most amount of strokes when it comes to ball striking. Spieth has had three Top 30 results in four events in 2026. However, it can be anyone's guess how Spieth fares this week at Bay Hill. Even Spieth would say that. Still, the putter has been very good ranking 13th in strokes gained (0.862). Furthermore, Spieth is one of the best in 2026 in putts per round for Round 1 (27). If there are good odds on a first round leader, the American may be worth a look. Spieth is capable of firing in a 67 or 68 on Thursday but after that, DFS or betting options are more volatile.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 3, 2026
Harry Hall had his weekend cut short for the second time in 2026. The English golfer shot a Friday 74 at The Genesis Invitational. It was the same pattern as we saw at the WM Phoenix Open where Hall just could not make enough birdies. A big problem for Hall is that second round where he averages 30.2 putts per round. Worse, he cannot get shots close to the green on approaches. Hall ranks 170th on tour in proximity from greater than 200 yards. He only reaches 68.06% of greens in regulation (104th). Despite a solid putter, Hall truly has been up and down the past four events. He could be a great flier to take in DFS formats or for a Top 20 bet at Bay Hill.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 3, 2026
Ryan Gerard plays well enough to contend in events. The American golfer had consecutive runner-up results in January but has had a tough time starting tournaments since. The last three began 72-72-73. While this is not terrible, Gerard has had to play catch-up too often. He now ranks 123rd on tour in putts per round 1 at 29.67. That is a full putt above his average. Also, overall he is 14th in scoring average at 68.33 mostly on the strength of his January start. Thursday may be vital for him at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Gerard makes for a nice weekend option in DFS especially, however.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 3, 2026
From a tee to green perspective, Patrick Cantlay has been as solid as ever. He ranks 23rd in strokes gained tee to green (+0.983) this season, but has lost an average of -0.240 strokes gained putting. It's really been the one spot holding him back for much of the last couple of years. It hasn't kept him from high finishes, but he hasn't won since 2022. Luckily, Bay Hill can lend itself to more consistent ball striking and short game prowess, rather than making a ton of putts. The 33-year-old is the third-best player in proximity from over 200 yards, with a strokes gained average per shot of +0.150. Given this strength, it is surprising to see that he is the worst on par-5 scoring and birdie average than the other holes. He'll need to improve there to have a chance this week, and while he's usually a name that commands a healthy amount of attention, DFS players could be better off looking elsewhere, considering his price tag.
--Todd McGillSource: Data Golf
March 3, 2026
Jason Day was enjoying a solid start to the 2026 season. The Australian golfer almost won The American Express with a runner-up result. A couple weeks ago Day missed the cut at The Genesis Invitational after a 73-74 start. Day could not get off the tees far enough accurately and the birdie opportunities just did not fall. Day is still averaging 296.9 yards off the tee (142nd) with accuracy under 60% at 59. 69%. Approach and proximity are important at the Arnold Palmer. Bay Hill is a long course at 7,454 yards. This includes five Par 4's all longer than 450 yards. Day might be someone to stay away from in betting circles this weekend.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 3, 2026
Jacob Bridgeman comes off an impressive win at The Genesis Invitational. The young American golfer has been on fire with his putter gaining a tour-leading 1.276 strokes. Furthermore, Bridgeman is gaining almost across the board on all major metrics in 2026. That includes a surprising 15th in greens in regulation at 74.17%. Bridgeman's nerves do seem to tighten up on Sunday's though as he averages 29.8 putts per round. He finished T-15 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year where Bridgeman got better as the event went on. Bridgeman remains a solid DFS threat for this weekend and even into the weekend.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 3, 2026
Russell Henley fell behind early at The Genesis Invitational after an opening-round 76, ultimately missing the cut by two strokes. He now returns to the Arnold Palmer Invitational to defend his 2025 title, where he won by one stroke over Collin Morikawa. Henley was solid throughout the bag in the victory, especially around the greens (+6.38 strokes gained) and with the putter (+3.61). This season, he ranks 38th in total strokes gained (+0.872 per round) and 29th on approach (+0.526), though there have been some concerns. He sits only 106th around the green (-0.054) and has struggled with long-iron proximity, ranking 149th from 175-200 yards (37'8") and 102nd from 200-plus (52'0"), key distances that accounted for nearly 50% of approach shots here last year. With three top-19 finishes before the missed cut and a strong course history at Bay Hill, Henley profiles as a solid bounce-back candidate at $9,400 on DraftKings, though, with slightly more risk than what would normally be expected.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 2, 2026
A T6 finish last week for Nicolai Hojgaard was a solid accomplishment after making the cut on the number on Friday. Rounds of 66-65 on the weekend earned the Dane his third top 10 in his last four starts. He has missed the cut in both career appearances at the Arnold Palmer Invitational; however, he looks primed to change that this week. He hasn't struck the ball as well with his long irons as others throughout his bag, but his overall ability from tee to green vastly outshines that lone hiccup. He's currently the sixth-ranked player on the PGA Tour in strokes gained from tee to green (+1.681). Perhaps the biggest question is whether he can hang around on a more demanding golf course that is more about limiting mistakes than going pedal to the metal. Play him with confidence.
--Todd McGillSource: PGA Tour
March 2, 2026
There isn't much to say about what happened to Shane Lowry on Sunday at the Cognizant Classic. It was a bit unbelievable to watch in the moment, undoubtedly more so to be living it. The only thing the 38-year-old can do is move forward, and the look ahead to another week is the one constant (whether good or bad) that players can count on. He comes to Bay Hill having finished solo third and solo seventh in the last two years. Regardless of what happened in the Palm Beaches, Lowry is still an elite long iron player, ranking in the 95th percentile in strokes gained per approach shot over 200 yards (+0.127). His accuracy off the tee always gives him a chance around Arnie's place. The putter has also cooperated since coming to the States, averaging +0.733 strokes gained on the greens. Obviously, it's hard to know his headplace since leaving PGA National, but the stats give him as good a chance as any this week.
--Todd McGillSource: Data Golf
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