February 4, 2026
Joel Dahmen, who started the Farmers Insurance Open as an alternate, took full advantage of the opportunity and finished T7. He'll look to carry that momentum into the WM Phoenix Open, where he has made seven appearances but has yet to finish inside the top 40. Success here typically hinges on strong off-the-tee and approach play. Through two events this season, Dahmen ranks 45th in strokes gained off the tee (+0.418 per round) and 93rd on approach (+0.059). Where he can struggle is from 150-200 yards, ranking in just the 30th percentile in proximity over the last 12 months, a key range that accounted for over 40% of approach shots here last year. At $6,900 on DraftKings, Dahmen is likely to be a popular option, but he'll need improved approach play to return value.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
February 4, 2026
Corey Conners has not played poorly at the WM Phoenix Open. However, the Canadian golfer has not finished inside the Top 15 in his previous five appearances. Conners' best result came back in 2021 (T-17). Last year, he opened with a 67 then watched things snowball the wrong way. A 73-76 weekend dropped him all the way to a T-70. Conners had several aspects of his game break down at the worst possible time. His betting odds have moved all the way to +7000 on DraftKings (was +5500). Conners' final round 71 at the Sony Open was concerning. Three bogeys on a reasonable Back 9 along with several errant shots cause some nerves even from a DFS standpoint.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
February 4, 2026
Sepp Straka got his 2026 season started with a lackluster performance at The American Express. The Austrian golfer saw plenty of rust two weeks ago via a 72-74 start. His third round 68 was not enough to play on Sunday but did show a little improvement. Last year, Straka started slow and built up to a T-15 result at Scottsdale. His final round 66 was one of the best on Sunday. Straka gained a ton of strokes last year in a two month run with six Top 15 finishes in seven events. If the Austrian shook off the rust, bettors are starting to believe he has. His number to win the WM Phoenix Open expects to shorten (+8000 via DraftKings). A Top 10 result is +500 which makes Straka an intriguing potential contender.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
February 4, 2026
Jordan Spieth has not won a PGA Tour event in four years. The American golfer has battled a litany of issues and injuries over the past several seasons. Going into the offseason last year healthy and coming into 2026 without mishaps was his biggest win. Spieth ended the Sony Open well and finished T-24 after a birdie-birdie finale. His driving distance was 12% better than average in Hawaii. Accuracy was a little in question at -7%. However, Spieth has been adjusting his swing and refining things. Driver and woods/iron accuracy may take time. With Spieth trending down to +5500, winning is out of the question. He is more focused on improving his overall game which means a potential fade here.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
February 4, 2026
Keith Mitchell has been improving each week as the WM Phoenix Open looms. The American golfer nearly climbed into the Top 10 last week at the Farmers Insurance Open (T-11). His solid weekend (68-69) paved the way to a nice success and nearly $200,000 payday. The one nagging concern with Mitchell has been putting so far in 2026. Small sample sizes can skew things but since late 2023, Mitchell has been outside the Top 100 in ranking metrics. This is starting to look like the 2024 campaign where Mitchell missed putts at an alarming rate. It pushed his putts per round then to 29.33. Now, that is 30.08. His 3-putt avoidance has been outside the Top 150 since 2023 as well. Mitchell is a DFS play if and only if the putter is even near tour average.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
February 4, 2026
Tom Hoge has truly been up and down in more ways than one to start of 2026. The American golfer has won once on the PGA Tour. His WM Phoenix Open results over the last five years is literally its own roller coaster. He has altered missed cuts with Top 20 results. A logical pattern dictates another good weekend finish. Hoge's 2026 so far features a T-40, T-8, and T-70. One bright spot is putting where Hoge has gained strokes compared to average every week. This is in contrast to the Fall Swing where Hoge struggled mightily putting (Sanderson Farms and The RSM Classic). January saw Hoge lose 2.1 strokes around the greens. That may be the bigger concern at Scottsdale for the golfer and a reason to still fade him.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
February 4, 2026
Rickie Fowler brings the fans and loves the atmosphere at the WM Phoenix Open. The American golfer is capable of contending but the last five appearances have left fans wanting more. Fowler has one WD and three missed cuts. He performed well at The American Express sliding inside the Top 20 (T-18) behind a final round 68. Fowler is the truest definition of a risky play from a DFS or betting standpoint. It is a bit surprising he has shortened to +3900 via DraftKings (was +4500 to +5000 last week). People forget Fowler found a way to net consecutive Top 10 results last August before taking time off. The start will be vital for Fowler. Last year, that +3 (74) caused him to abandon ship.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
February 3, 2026
Xander Schauffele played well at last week's Farmers Insurance Open but disappointingly missed the cut. Schauffele is set to make his second appearance of the 2026 season at this week's Waste Management Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, Arizona. Schauffele skipped last year's edition and the 2024 edition but has played well here in the past. He finished tied for 10th in 2023 and tied for third in 2022. Over the past 12 months, Schauffele ranks in the 95th percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway. This is important because, last year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, over 40% of approach shots came from this distance.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
February 3, 2026
Collin Morikawa missed the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii three weeks ago, and that has been his only appearance so far in the 2026 season. Morikawa will need to find his stroke on the greens if he's going to have a chance to compete. He lost 1.62 strokes putting but gained 0.68 strokes on approach at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Morikawa missed the 2025 and 2024 editions of the Waste Management Phoenix Open but missed the cut in his last appearance in 2023. Over the past 12 months, Morikawa ranks in the 95th percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway. This is important because, last year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, over 40% of approach shots came from this distance.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
February 3, 2026
Hideki Matsuyama continued to show the excellent form he's been in to start the 2026 season, finishing tied for 11th at last week's Farmers Insurance Open, which was followed by a tied for 13th finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Matsuyama has been outstanding with his approach play so far this season, gaining at least 1.25 strokes in both of his starts. Matsuyama has been excellent in his recent appearances at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, finishing tied for 25th in 2025 and tied for 22nd in 2024. Over the past 12 months, Matsuyama ranks in the 97th percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway. This is worth pointing out because at last year's Waste Management Phoenix Open over 40% of approach shots came from this distance.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
February 3, 2026
Max Homa missed the cut at last week's Farmers Insurance Open, which was disappointing considering how well he's played there in the past and how well he played at the American Express the week prior. Homa hasn't had much recent success at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, missing the cut in 2025 and 2024. Over the past 12 months, Homa ranks in the 48th percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway. This is worth mentioning because, last year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, over 40% of approach shots came from this distance.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
February 3, 2026
Ben Griffin finished tied for 24th at the American Express, and that was followed by a tied for 19th finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii the week prior. Griffin has been excellent around the greens so far this season, gaining over 0.85 strokes in his first tournaments. Griffin has played well at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, finishing tied for 36th in 2025 and tied for 28th in 2024. Over the past 12 months, Griffin ranks in the 53rd percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway. This is important because, last year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, over 40% of approach shots came from this distance.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
February 3, 2026
Harris English secured a T22 finish at last week's Farmers Insurance Open, which followed a T27 finish the week prior at the American Express. English was excellent on approach last week, gaining 1.68 strokes, and will need to replicate that form to have a shot at competing at this week's Waste Management Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, Arizona. English skipped last year's tournament but finished tied for 17th in 2024. Over the past 12 months, English ranks in the 85th percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway. This is important because, last year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, over 40% of approach shots came from this distance.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
February 3, 2026
Wyndham Clark finished tied for 65th at last week's Farmers Insurance Open, which was a disappointing finish to the week, especially after coming off a tied for 13th finish at the American Express the week before. Clark lost strokes across the board except off the tee, gaining 0.12 strokes last week. Clark finished tied for 16th in the 2025 Waste Management Phoenix Open and tied for 41st in 2024. Over the past 12 months, Clark ranks in the 76th percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway. This is worth pointing out because at last year's Waste Management Phoenix Open over 40% of approach shots came from this distance.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
February 3, 2026
Akshay Bhatia missed the cut at last week's Farmers Insurance Open and has missed the cut in each of his first two starts in the 2026 season. Bhatia has lost his stroke putting and on approach in both of his starts. Last week, he lost over 3.50 strokes putting and 0.23 strokes on approach. Bhatia finished tied for 32nd in last year's edition but missed the cut in 2024. Over the past 12 months, Bhatia ranks in the 90th percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway. This is worth mentioning because, last year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, over 40% of approach shots came from this distance.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
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