Statcast xStats: Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Statcast is a valuable tool for fantasy baseball analysis, and it can be easy to look at a stat called "Expected Batting Average" and blindly use it as your projection. Of course, proper use of these metrics is a little more nuanced than that. First, a disclaimer: This article is about the "Expected Stats" found... Read More
Statcast Pitch Tracking: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
When you're evaluating a pitcher by Pitch Info on FanGraphs, sometimes you see pitches that don't seem to accomplish anything. If Pitch X is seldom a strike, rarely chased outside of the zone, and not generating whiffs or a favorable batted line against, why doesn't the pitcher scrap it entirely? Some pitchers could improve by... Read More
Spin Rate: Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job of conveying what spin rate really means. The result has been a ton of fantasy managers who know spin rate exists,... Read More
Biggest Starting Pitcher Fallers (K-BB%) - Use Caution for Fantasy Baseball Drafts
In an age when we have a way to quantify just about anything that a baseball player can do on the field, one statistic that you'll find most analysts taking to heart when it comes to pitchers is their strikeout-to-walk ratio (K-BB%). It is often regarded as one of the most important and predictive statistics... Read More
SIERA vs. ERA: Starting Pitcher Risers and Fallers for Fantasy Baseball (2024)
So far this offseason, we've taken a look at pitchers who attacked the strike zone the most, who improved their Stuff+ the most, and who saw the biggest increases in K-BB%, amongst others. This article will take yet another slice of the data to see what there is to see. In this case, we'll take... Read More
K-BB% Winners and Losers - Starting Pitcher Picks for Fantasy Baseball Drafts (2024)
Strikeouts and walks play a pivotal role in nearly every scoring format of fantasy baseball. In points leagues, that tends to be a direct effect of points for strikeouts and subtractions for walks. In leagues with category-based scoring, strikeouts (sometimes per nine innings) is a common category, with walks often incorporated into something like WHIP.... Read More
Pitcher Statcast: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Statcast metrics such as Barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a fantasy baseball batter's performance, so it is only natural to assume that the metrics would be predictive for pitchers as well. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet, there... Read More
Biggest Barrel Risers for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Hitters (Barrel %)
For the hitters in our fantasy baseball lineups, we want the best possible outcome from each one of their plate appearances in 2024. One of the best ways to predict hitters with the best outcomes is with Barrels. When MLB introduced the stat in 2016, they showed that Barreled balls result in an average of... Read More
Barrels and Brls/BBE: Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Previously, we looked at how exit velocity is only one piece of the fantasy baseball analysis puzzle. Baseball broadcasts commonly cite Launch Angle (LA) to complement their EV figures, but it is given in terms of degrees. Are we trying to find the hypotenuse of an isosceles triangle? Launch angle is basically a fancy way... Read More
Exit Velocity (EV): Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball
If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the Statcast era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures. There... Read More
Kings Of Candy: Biggest Sweet Spot Risers for Fantasy Baseball Year-Over-Year (Swt-Spt%)
We recently looked at hitters who increased their BB% the most year-over-year, but now we want to look at hitters whose sweet spot percentage increased the most. Why this metric? Well, by looking at who has increased their sweet spot percentage, you might find hitters who may be hitting the ball at a better angle,... Read More
Park Factors: Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball
If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on a home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line. Ballpark factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real-life schedule.... Read More
Using SIERA to Identify Overachievers Worth Fading in 2024 Fantasy Baseball
With spring training rapidly approaching, it's time for part one of my two-part series on using SIERA to identify pitchers with an ERA that was not truly reflective of their overall effectiveness. SIERA attempts to quantify the skills that underpin a pitcher's ERA. It attempts to consider how specific skills (strikeouts, walks, ground balls) interact... Read More
Starting Pitcher Stuff+ Improvers for Fantasy Baseball (2024)
At this time of year when fantasy baseball managers are preparing for drafts, it's wise to look at trends to see which players might be heading in a positive direction and which ones are on a downward path so that strategies are properly adjusted for these signals. If a player is on an upward trend... Read More
Pitch Info: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has many statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a public pitch tracking system providing a lot of data to help fantasy managers... Read More
The Biggest Starting Pitcher Risers for Fantasy Baseball: K-BB%
How can you uncover a potential hidden gem late in a draft or determine which players warrant drafting them ahead of their ADP? You analyze the data, of course. OR, you let us do that for you! In this article, we'll look at pitchers that had the most dramatic increases in K-BB% from 2022 to... Read More
The Biggest Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Fallers of 2023: K-BB%
Uncovering trends and identifying a potential hidden gem late in a draft or identifying a player you should draft ahead of their ADP will help you be prepared when it comes time to make your selections. Of course with better preparation, the better chance you have to win. So, conversely, knowing which players to shy... Read More
Batting Order: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
You may be wondering why there aren't any advanced stats aimed at predicting a player's counting stats like runs and RBI. The answer is simple: modern sabermetrics reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in ascertaining... Read More
Pull%: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
We have previously determined that fantasy managers generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. One way to illustrate this is... Read More
Five Infielders To Target In 2024 Fantasy Baseball OBP Leagues
Many rotisserie or category fantasy baseball scoring formats have switched out batting average (AVG) for on-base percentage (OBP) or have simply included it as an additional category. While on the surface, it may not significantly affect your pre-draft ranking, several players should be moved a bit higher up your board. If you are new to... Read More
Pitcher BABIP: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy managers should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some of... Read More
FIP/xFIP: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
While we've only examined how to evaluate hitters using advanced stats thus far, sabermetrics are just as useful for pitchers. The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy managers encounter is Fielding Independent Pitching or FIP. FIP measures a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to DIPS (Defense... Read More
Plate Discipline: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy managers have known for years that players like Joey Gallo are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players who whiff a lot tend to continue... Read More
Hitter Batted Ball Distribution: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy baseball managers want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not always the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution. The league average batted ball distribution in... Read More
HR/FB: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Batting average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. Most fantasy managers find the long ball sexier, though. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI.... Read More
Batter BABIP: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
The most accessible of the fantasy-relevant advanced stats is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It simply measures a player's batting average on balls in play, with outcomes such as strikeouts and home runs removed from consideration. In general, the league average hovers around .300, a nice round number to remember. However, it... Read More
Introduction: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball 2024
Hello fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series will attempt to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy managers may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Multiple... Read More
MLB Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - Season Recap
Welcome back to the final edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I have selected one advanced metric, chosen two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyzed what those values may mean for future performance. Sadly, we have come to the end of another fantasy baseball... Read More
Breakout Hitters Watch for Fantasy Baseball - Bo Naylor, Davis Schneider, Gabriel Moreno
Welcome RotoBallers to our fantasy baseball breakout hitters article for Week 26. As always, we are here to bring you a few MLB hitters whose advanced metrics are popping out. My name is Joshua Costello, and I will be giving you 3-4 hitter names that seem to have sustainable improved production this season. Most of... Read More