X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Biggest Starting Pitcher Fallers (K-BB%) - Use Caution for Fantasy Baseball Drafts

Cristian Javier Shane McClanahan - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News, Starting Pitchers

Dan's fantasy baseball starting pitcher fallers (K-BB%) to consider avoiding for 2024 drafts. These SPs struggled with K-BB% last year and may struggle again.

In an age when we have a way to quantify just about anything that a baseball player can do on the field, one statistic that you'll find most analysts taking to heart when it comes to pitchers is their strikeout-to-walk ratio (K-BB%). It is often regarded as one of the most important and predictive statistics out there for evaluating pitchers.

Sometimes simple is good, even in the complex world of baseball statistics and sabermetrics. When it comes to K-BB%, the bigger the number, the better. The more strikeouts a pitcher can rack up, the less the ball is put into play. And fewer walks simply means fewer baserunners and less of a chance at giving up runs.

I examined all starting pitchers who threw at least 80 innings in each of the last two seasons to see which pitchers had the biggest decreases in their K-BB%. I don't want to come out and say fade every one of these pitchers -- because there is certainly a chance they could bounce back. But they're trending in the wrong direction and lower K-BB% usually means that higher ERAs and WHIPs are on the way.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Consistency of K-BB%

The main reason this stat is so helpful is that it has proven to be "sticky," meaning it usually stays relatively stable year to year.

If we look at all pitchers with 80+ innings starts in both 2022 and 2023 and then compare their K-BB% for both years, we see the average change from 2022 to 2023 was just -1.1%. And the overall average K-BB% was right around 15% if we want to establish a baseline.

If a pitcher sees a major increase or decrease in their K-BB% from year to year, it's a pretty clear indication of a major breakthrough (increase) or big-time trouble (decrease). In this article, we will be looking at some of the biggest decreases in K-BB% from the 2022 to 2023 season.

 

Biggest Decreases in K-BB% Last Season

Remember that to qualify for the list, pitchers had to throw at least 80 innings in both 2022 and 2023, that way we have at least a half-year's worth of starts in either season to use for our sample. Tony Gonsolin is coming off arm surgery and isn't someone you're considering drafts as well as Shane McClanahan, who is slated to miss all of the 2024 season after Tommy John surgery.

The rest of these guys are fair game, and I am going to make a case against drafting them at their ADP.

 

Ailing Astros Aces

It was just two years ago that Justin Verlander was underdrafted. He came off a major arm surgery at age 39 and won a Cy Young Award, going 18-4 across 28 starts. Last year, he struggled early in the season with the Mets before being dealt back to Houston and finding his groove.

And while he still finished with a solid ERA of 3.22, it was his highest ERA since 2017. The biggest noticeable difference was a huge decrease in his strikeout rate from 27.8% to 21.5%. His SwStr% dipped to just 11.1% and his BB% jumped two points to 6.7%.

He's now 41 years old and while his fastball velocity is still hanging around 94 mph, opposing hitters made much better contact off him last year. At an ADP of 134, I am out on Verlander when I could be taking a young pitcher who is still on the upward arc of their career.

Verlander's teammate Cristian Javier was one of the biggest busts of 2023. His strikeout rate plummeted from 33% to just 23%. His FB velocity dipped from 93.8 mph to 92.7 mph and as Corbin Young notes in the tweet above, he lost the good arm side run that he had in 2022. That could explain why hitters teed off on his fastball to the tune of 21 home runs allowed and a .455 SLG. For a guy who throws 60% fastballs, that's a huge problem as his offspeed stuff isn't anything special.

Reports from training camp are that he lost 15 pounds and feels great coming into the season, and he could certainly bounce back from his mediocre 2023 season to some extent. But my guess is that he was pitching over his head in 2022 and will likely settle in somewhere between his terrific 2022 season and his mediocre year last season.

At an ADP of 168, I'm not betting on him to reclaim his 2022 form when there are plenty of other pitchers on an upward trajectory in that area worth drafting (like Hunter Brown, for example).

 

Can Bieber, Burnes, or Brady Bounce Back?

Shane Bieber went to Driveline this offseason and it was reported that he gained up to 2.0 mph on his fastball as his average four-seamer was only 91.3 mph last season.

He better hope so because he's been on a downward trend now for several seasons. The last time his fastball averaged over 93 mph was in 2020, which was also when his trademark curveball was at its peak effectiveness (26.3% swinging strike rate, 83% ground ball rate).

His overall Statcast numbers from last season are...well, largely unimpressive as he finished with a 3.80 ERA and a measly 20% K% in 21 starts.

If anything, it speaks to Bieber's ability as a pitcher to continue to get decent results even with below-average velocity and only an 8.0 MPH difference in velocity between his fastball and curveball.

If there's any truth to his breakthrough with Driveline, then perhaps he can regain his form. But once again, we are looking at an ADP of 139 where I would much rather be investing in a more proven commodity than hoping for a bounceback.

Corbin Burnes is a victim of his own success. He was so good in 2022 that his numbers in 2023 (which were still really good) pale in comparison. A 25% strikeout rate with an 8% walk rate would be a huge year for most pitchers, but for Burnes, it represented a 5% drop in strikeouts and a 2% increase in walks.

His velocity on his cutter dropped from 95 to 94 mph and the SwStr% on his best pitch decreased from 13.3% to just 10.9%. He's now in Baltimore and set to be the ace of that young staff. I am sure he'll be fine, eat up innings, and pick up wins. But if can't pile up strikeouts like he once did, is he worth the 20th overall pick (his current ADP)?

Brady Singer followed the best season of his career (3.23 ERA, 24% K%) with his worst last season when his ERA ballooned to 5.52 and his K% plummeted to just 18.9%. The lack of strikeouts might have been okay if his ground ball rate had not also dropped to a career-low 50.6%, too.

Unlike the others, he does come pretty cheap at an ADP of 404, but you'd like to see the control come back and for him to have some positive results this spring before taking a shot on him bouncing back.

 

Angels Lefties Lack Control

I have a really hard time rostering pitchers with control issues. And both Tyler Anderson and Patrick Sandoval are those types of pitchers.

Tyler Anderson enjoyed a renaissance of sorts with the Dodgers in 2022 when he won a career-high 15 games and posted career lows in ERA (2.57) and BB% (4.8%). But last year, he struggled badly for the Halos as his BB% jumped all the way to 10.2%. As a pitcher who doesn't overpower anyone with a 90 mph fastball, Anderson relies on a really good changeup and his cutter to induce weak contact. All those extra walks really killed his WHIP (1.49) as he put himself in danger with runners on base far too often. Perhaps he could be serviceable if his control comes back, but he struggled with throwing strikes for much of his career before two solid seasons in 2021-2022. I'll pass.

I was once a big believer in Patrick Sandoval, as he flashed some really good strikeout upside (25.9%) back in 2021 during his first extended run in the majors. And in 2022, he finished with a 2.91 ERA despite a 1.34 WHIP, which may have been one of the more impressive feats for a starting pitcher.

He's been battling control issues for his entire career as his career BB% is 10.1%. He had his worst season in terms of throwing strikes last year as he saw his walk rate swell to 11.3% and his K% drop to 19.6%. The end result was an ugly 1.51 WHIP over 144 innings and 28 starts.

He has a devastating changeup that would be a tremendous out pitch; however, he hasn't been able to locate his fastball and slider early in the count to set hitters up. Instead, he's falling behind hitters and then trying to get by with a 93 mph fastball in hitters counts. And if he doesn't give in and throw a fastball, he's picking at the corners with offspeed stuff and walking hitters instead. There's still potential here with Sandoval, but he's a frustrating pitcher to roster and I'll let someone else roll the dice on him.

 

Other Pitchers on the "Watch List"

Here are some other pitchers who saw their K-BB% drop considerably in 2023, but didn't make the main chart. We have some big names here with guys like Kershaw, Cole, Scherzer, and Nola. And while I am not saying you shouldn't draft them, what I am saying is you should consider where you are drafting them as it's more likely that their best years are behind them.

Follow me for more pitching breakdowns and keep checking RotoBaller for the latest fantasy baseball advice this preseason!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Year In Review




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Michael Kim

Finishes Tied For 26 at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Staying with Nets
Colby Thomas

Called Up From Triple-A
Shea Langeliers

A's Reinstate Shea Langeliers From Injured List
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Jalen Williams

will Undergo Surgery on Right Wrist
Bryce Harper

Activated and Starting on Monday
Deandre Ayton

Finalizing Contract Buyout With Portland
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Lands on Injured List With Fractured Ribs
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Milwaukee Bucks

Bobby Portis Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden, Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Minnesota Timberwolves

Julius Randle Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers

Dorian Finney-Smith Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Milwaukee Bucks

Kevin Porter Jr. Declining Player Option
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Toronto Raptors

Garrett Temple Returning to Toronto
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless Innings in Fourth Win
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF