X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Starting Pitcher Advanced Metrics Leaders for ERA-xERA - Statcast Studs and Duds (Week 2)

Shane Bieber - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News

Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose ERA-xERA could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 2.

Welcome to the first edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for the 2024 season! Statcast provides a ton of insightful advanced metrics that can be used to understand pitchers' performance and predict future fantasy performance. Diving into underlying stats is one of my favorite aspects of fantasy baseball and I am happy to be back doing that with you all for another season.

Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change. As we only have a few games of data, I will start by comparing pitchers' ERA to their expected ERA (xERA) from 2023. This comparison can generally be used to find pitchers who got lucky or unlucky based on their underlying performance.

I will take a close look at many metrics and aspects of pitch types throughout the season to hopefully help fantasy managers gain the edge in their leagues. For now, we'll start by reviewing a few pitchers who could be in line for regression compared to their performance last season. Once again, welcome back to the 2024 season and the Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds series!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

ERA-xERA Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, March 31, 2024.

Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees

3-8, 6.85 ERA, 5.34 xERA, 1.51 ERA-xERA

Carlos Rodon only pitched 64 1/3 innings in his first season with the Yankees due to a left forearm strain, and those innings were not pretty. The 31-year-old went 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 22.4% strikeout rate. A potential silver lining was his 5.34 xERA, which was still poor, but a run and a half lower than his ERA. Could a healthy start get him back to his 2022 ways?

The first issue is that Rodon's batted-ball profile is not conducive to Yankee Stadium. He has been a fly ball pitcher over the past several seasons and 2023 was no different. His 2023 average launch angle was 22.1 degrees and he gave up extremely hard contact. Consequently, he endured a career-high 2.10 HR/9 rate and a poor 15.2% HR/FB rate.

The second issue is that Rodon is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, so he has little room for error. His fastball and slider both had nearly identical velocities and spin rates in 2022 and 2023, but his fastball got much worse results. This is somewhat puzzling, as even his pitch location was similar. This oddity could partly be reflected in the difference between his ERA and xERA.

Rodon has always been considered a potential fantasy ace but only has two excellent seasons in his career. Last season's results may not have been indicative of his underlying performance, but his xERA was still uninspiring. He has had an erratic spring, which hasn't made things clearer. Overall, even if Rodon were to experience some positive regression, I would be very uncomfortable trusting him for 2024.

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

4-7, 4.82 ERA, 3.82 xERA, 1.00 ERA-xERA

Hunter Greene was considered a top fantasy prospect for some time and now has two big-league seasons under his belt. However, he has yet to live up to the hype. He posted a lackluster 4.82 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with a 30.5% strikeout rate in 112 IP in 2023. One glimmer of hope beyond the strikeout rate was his 3.82 xERA, which was a full run lower than his ERA. Can he finally reach expectations in 2024?

Greene’s 98.3 mph fastball paired with his slider should have all the makings of a dominant pitcher, and his strikeout rate and 13.4% overall swinging strike rate met expectations. What didn’t meet expectations was his poor batted-ball results.

He didn’t give up much contact at 72.5%, but what he did allow was very hard. Greene’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were both in the bottom 20 percent of baseball to go with a 17.4-degree launch angle. Consequently, Greene gave up a poor .339 BABIP and 14.3% HR/FB rate. His pitch location and high velocity may have led to such hard-hit metrics, as he tended to leave the ball in the middle of the plate.

Greene has yet to show his true potential, but there are enough signs to make me think he could put it all together in 2024. His two-pitch mix has the strikeout skills and his underlying skills were much better than his results. Given that he is still young, I think he can improve his pitch location and get closer to his expected results.

 

ERA-xERA Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, March 31, 2024.

Blake Snell, San Francisco Giants

14-9, 2.55 ERA, 3.77 xERA, -1.52 ERA-xERA

2023's reigning National League Cy Young Award winner finally found a new home in the same division. Blake Snell will join the Giants after compiling an excellent 2.55 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 31.5% strikeout rate in 180 IP with the Padres. His peripherals were strong, but his 3.77 xERA was mediocre and over one-and-a-half runs higher than his ERA. Could fantasy managers see a down 2024 season?

Snell has yielded erratic fantasy results throughout his career and several potential reasons stand out. The first is his lack of durability. Snell has never pitched 200 innings in his career and has thrown at least 180 just twice. He won Cy Young Awards in both of those seasons, but injuries have plagued him overall.

Injuries may have contributed to his uninspiring numbers, but his walk rate is definitely a factor. Snell owns a 10.9% career walk rate and ironically had a career-high 13.3% clip last season. Despite his upside, Snell's output is prone to considerable variability due to his career 1.24 WHIP. His batted-ball profiles have always been above average but have also varied over time.

Snell is an excellent strikeout pitcher, has ace-caliber upside, and will benefit from his new home park. However, he has experienced a roller-coaster career due to high walks and injuries.

The consistent variability he has experienced gives me pause to commit to him from a fantasy perspective, and the fact that he is coming off of such a strong season gives me particular concern. I expect him to be a fantasy contributor, but would not be surprised to see his 2024 ERA meet or exceed his 2023 xERA.

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians

6-6, 3.80 ERA, 4.83 xERA, -1.03 ERA-xERA

Like Snell, Shane Bieber has gotten varied results throughout his career while enduring numerous injuries. 2023 was no exception, as he managed just 128 IP with a 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 20.1% strikeout rate. These numbers were some of the worst of his career, but his 4.83 xERA suggested that he could have been much worse. Bieber is no longer being drafted like an ace, but should fantasy managers trust him in general?

The main trend does seem to be issues stemming from injury. Bieber's overall velocity dropped between 1.0 mph and 1.5 mph between 2021 and 2022 and persisted through 2023. Bieber managed to pitch successfully despite the lack of velocity in 2022, but his small margin of error became apparent in 2023 when he got hit extremely hard.

The good news is that Bieber actively worked on these issues this offseason with Driveline. As a result, he got his fastball back up to 93 mph and reworked his curveball, which was a key secondary pitch earlier in his career. He also looked sharp this spring with a 1.56 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 17 1/3 IP.

Bieber took a big step back in 2023 and had even more discouraging underlying numbers. However, he focused on improving key aspects of his game and the small sample of spring results suggests that he may have corrected them. Given the high fantasy impact he has provided in the past and his work this offseason, I am hopeful that Bieber can right the ship in 2024.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Kyren Williams

Rams Not Willing to Pay Kyren Williams Top-Market Money?
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Christian Kirk

the No. 2 WR in Houston?
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Jerome Ford

the Likely Starter for Cleveland to Begin 2025
Chig Okonkwo

"Poised" for Best Season of Career
Xavier Watts

Falcons High on Xavier Watts
Xavier Restrepo

Training With Star Wideouts
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF