Hitters Advanced Metrics Leaders for Brls/PA % - Fantasy Baseball Studs and Duds (Week 3)

April 15, 2024

Statcast batter leaders in Week 3 of the 2024 MLB season according to Brls/PA %. Joshua Costello evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.

Hello, RotoBallers! As another week of baseball wraps up, I will recap which hitters had the most impactful plate appearances in the past few days. Using Statcast's Barrels per Plate Appearance stat, or Brls/PA %, we can narrow our view to the hitters who are the most locked in to begin the season.

Statcast's Brls/PA % works by dividing the total number of barrels by the number of plate appearances within the given period. The higher the Brls/PA %, the more often the hitter makes ideal contact with the baseball. We will also examine other stats, but the Brls/PA % will be the main focus of this piece.

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Brls/PA % Leaders

Notable Players

Shohei Ohtani has leaped to the top of this list within the past week and has earned every bit of it. The Dodgers slugger had his Brls/PA% jump from 11.8% to 17.7%. Ohtani also leads the majors with 14 barrels and 33 BBE of at least 95 mph. The Japanese superstar also has a bright red Statcast page to back up his success at the beginning of the year.

To begin the season, Ohtani ranks in the 98th percentile for xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. The two-time AL MVP could be destined to take home the hardware for the National League if he keeps up his pace. Batting in one of the most stacked lineups in major league history also helps his opportunities to score and drive in runs.

Michael Busch is also off to a hot start to the year. The Cubs' first baseman is batting .327 with 16 hits and five home runs so far. The former Dodgers top prospect had shown his potential in the minor leagues but struggled to establish a permanent place in the Dodgers' ever-changing lineup. A fresh start in Chicago seems to be doing the trick for Busch.

The hard-hitting lefty has a Brls/PA% of 11.5% with six barrels in 34 BBE this season. Busch is also in the 95th percentile or better in barrel rate, xSLG, and xwOBA. Busch had a 33.3% strikeout rate last season in his 81 plate appearances, but that number dropped to 23.1% through 56 plate appearances in 2024. With his stellar minor league track record and improved strikeout rate to begin the year, Busch is well worth an add since he is available in more than half of leagues.

Although the headlines this past week focused on the promotion of the Orioles' top prospect, Jackson Holliday, another Baltimore prospect, stole the show. Colton Cowser displayed why the Orioles have one of the best farm systems in baseball. From Tuesday to Sunday, Cowser had 23 at-bats. The Orioles outfielder turned those 23 at-bats into 10 hits, 12 RBI, six runs, four home runs, and two stolen bases.

Cowser hit .435 this past week, which is lower than his season-long batting average of .441 to begin the year. The 24-year-old came in at 14 on our top-25 list this week, with a Brls/PA% of 11.8%. His pace is unsustainable, but considering his prospect pedigree, Cowser is worth rostering in most leagues. One thing to keep an eye on is his 30.5% whiff rate, which could come back to bite him once the bat cools off, but I suggest continuing to ride with him for now.

Edouard Julien is another new face on the leaderboard, but one that I fear may not be there for long. Julien had a strong week, especially on Wednesday when he cranked two opposite-field home runs against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Twins second baseman also went yard on Saturday to bring his total for the week up to three. Despite being eighth on the leaderboard this week, Julien has several concerning stats to zero in on.

Despite his hot week, the 24-year-old has a .196 batting average this season. Julien's low batting average is also supported by his .208 xBA, which ranks in the 18th percentile. His quality of contact has been poor, along with his strikeout rate. The Twins hitter has an alarming strikeout rate of 36.2% this year. Now is the time to capitalize on his recent success and sell if another manager thinks Julien is breaking out.

The last hitter I want to highlight is Evan Carter. Carter had an excellent stretch with the Rangers last season, batting .306 with a 1.058 OPS in 75 plate appearances. Coming into this season, many assumed Carter would pick up where he left off last year, but that has not been the case. Carter is batting .245 with a .852 in 60 plate appearances this season, but several stats suggest that he could take a step forward as the year goes on.

Last season, Carter had a strikeout rate of 32% with a whiff rate of 30.2%. This season, Carter has a strikeout rate of 12.5% with a 16.3% whiff rate, both of which are in the 90th percentile. Despite his .306 batting average last year, the Rangers rookie had an xBA of just .249. Carter's xBA sits at .288 this season, suggesting that the young hitter's best is yet to come. If the buy-low opportunity presents itself, Carter is a player to go after.

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