Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Targets, Avoids - Analyzing BB% and GB% Improvements

March 22, 2026

Frank's starting pitcher fantasy baseball targets, fades, sleepers based on notable BB% and GB% improvements. Read which pitchers he's targeting in 2026 drafts.

Even though strikeout-minus-walk rate (K-BB%) is considered to be among the most important pitcher metrics, it's also a good idea to take a look at walk rate (BB%) and ground-ball rate (GB%) to learn more about a starter's skill set. After all, it's helpful to have a pitcher with great command and the ability to keep the ball on the ground.

Pitchers with strong control can limit baserunners, which can lead to a better WHIP. Those who induce groundballs at a high rate can limit home runs. That means that you won't have to worry about a bloated ERA.

In this article, I dove into five starting pitchers who were among the biggest improvers in walk rate and ground-ball rate. I used the "Year to Year Changes" section of "Leaderboards" at Baseball Savant for this data. Do note that I only included pitchers who are entrenched in their respective rotations heading into the season. I also removed anyone who is currently on the injured list.

Starting Pitcher Improvers in BB% (Walk Rate)

Michael Soroka, Arizona Diamondbacks

Michael Soroka put up a 4.52 ERA last season, but his 3.78 SIERA indicates that he deserved a bit better. You have to like how he was able to trim his walk rate from 12.7% to 7.7%, putting him in a position to emerge as a matchup-based streamer for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 28-year-old righty is currently holding down the No. 5 spot in the D-Backs rotation.

It wouldn't surprise me to see him get some use as a one-week pickup in games against the Colorado Rockies.

VERDICT: Pick him up when he has a great matchup. In 50-round draft-and-holds, Soroka can be a decent depth piece at the end of your rotation.

Michael Lorenzen, Colorado Rockies

Michael Lorenzen did a great job bringing down his walk rate from 11.0% to 6.4% last season. This is a veteran who can be a dependable innings-eater at times. The problem is that he'll now be pitching at Coors Field after signing with the Colorado Rockies this season. However, you can find some utility with Lorenzen in road starts, perhaps in pitcher's parks like in Miami.

VERDICT: Pick up Lorenzen in road games with good matchups. In draft-and-hold, you can use your 50th round pick on him, as an innings-eater can act as good depth.

Edward Cabrera, Chicago Cubs

Edward Cabrera Leaning on his Fastball More https://t.co/BJIN9gyEj3

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) March 13, 2026

Edward Cabrera is one of the most intriguing names on this list. For years, we've been enamored with Cabrera's impressive stuff and strikeout upside, but the problem has always been his command. But now, with a walk rate that fell from 11.8% to 8.3%, you have to be excited about Cabrera. Not only that, but now he'll be pitching for one of the best teams in the National League, the Cubs.

It's also good news to see that Cabrera has a 4.0% walk rate in spring training so far.

VERDICT: Target in your drafts as an SP3 or SP4.

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

Trevor Rogers was terrific for the Orioles last season, putting up a 1.81 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 109.2 innings. While his 3.75 SIERA suggests much of this was "smoke and mirrors," you have to like how he trimmed his walk rate from 10.0% to 6.9%. Rogers can be an effective mid-rotation arm for you, especially pitching on an Orioles team that is likely to get back in the playoffs this season.

Just don't expect him to replicate last season, although it's encouraging to see his performance in spring so far.

VERDICT: Take Rogers as your SP4 or SP5, but temper your expectations.

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

Nick Lodolo finally stayed healthy last season, turning in a productive year that included a 3.33 ERA (3.57 SIERA) with an elite 4.8% walk rate. With Hunter Greene (elbow) sidelined and Chase Burns coming along slowly, the Reds desperately need Lodolo to build off last season. You have to like how he's put up a 29.0 K% and 4.8 BB% in spring training so far.

This is one of the more intriguing names on this list, along with Cabrera. In a league with flashier arms getting more attention, don't let the 28-year-old lefty go unnoticed.

VERDICT: Target Lodolo as your SP4, but remember that he still pitches in a bandbox that is Great American Ball Park.

Starting Pitcher Improvers in GB% (Ground-Ball Rate)

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

Tanner Bibee in Line for Resurgent 2026 Season? https://t.co/mvGJfsXRj0

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) February 8, 2026

Tanner Bibee was disappointing last season, putting up a 4.24 ERA (4.15 SIERA) and 1.23 WHIP in 182 1/3 innings. However, we saw some encouraging signs at the end of the year, when Bibee allowed a combined 2 ER in his last three starts, spanning 21 innings. Remember that Bibee is still only 27 years old. The disappointing surface stats have suppressed Bibee's price to the point where he's become an excellent value.

I like how he was able to increase his ground-ball rate by nearly 10% as well.

VERDICT: Target this underrated innings-eater to round out your rotation. Perhaps he can build off his strong finish to the year.

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

Braxton Ashcraft is one of the best sleeper pitchers to target in drafts this season. Not only is he in a pitcher-friendly environment, but the Pirates are also a much-improved team. You have to like the 3.61 SIERA and a 24.3 K% last year. The 58.5% ground-ball rate is intriguing because pitchers who can keep the ball out of the air can keep their ERA in check. Ashcraft has also been terrific in spring training, putting up a 29.1 K% and 1.8 BB%.

VERDICT: Terrific sleeper later in your draft.

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians

Slade Cecconi improved his ground-ball rate from 33.6% to 41.4%, which is big because he's not a prolific strikeout pitcher, as highlighted by a 20.0 K% last year. While his overall numbers were underwhelming last year, including a 4.19 SIERA, Cecconi can be a useful streamer in the right matchup. After all, the Guardians have established themselves as an organization that does a good job getting the most out of its pitchers.

VERDICT: Save him for the waiver wire for when he has a good matchup.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

Justin Verlander is still an extreme flyball pitcher, but it's interesting that he bumped up his ground-ball rate from 28.7% to 35.5%. Now back with the Tigers, perhaps we can still get some use out of this Hall of Famer, especially now that he's on a playoff contender. What's interesting about Verlander is that he had a strong finish to the season last year, allowing a combined seven earned runs in his last six starts.

VERDICT: Monitor Verlander on your waiver wire as a matchup-based streamer. You can also take him as a depth piece to round out your rotation in a draft-and-hold.

Zack Littell, Washington Nationals

Zack Littell is a dependable innings-eater who registered a 3.81 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 186.2 innings last season. While he'll be pitching for one of the worst teams in MLB in the Nationals, there's a reasonable chance that he's eventually traded to a contender at the deadline. Even though he's still a flyball pitcher, it's good to see that he bumped his ground-ball rate to 40.7%. Leave him on your wire, but if you're still doing draft-and-holds, he's a good depth piece.

VERDICT: Matchup-based streamer, monitor him on the wire in the hope that he gets traded to a contender.

More Fantasy Baseball Advice