MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 8/5/26)

August 5, 2026

Get Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 8/5/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange -- see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

It's another fantastic MLB slate today, with plenty of quality pitchers to target for strikeouts and some really favorable spots for several offenses. We also have a couple of really good spots for NRFI bets, as we have at least one potential pitchers' duel in both leagues today.

If you're reading this, I'll assume you also bet on baseball regularly. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy baseball and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge to use their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similar to how investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager you win, and users can usually find better value on bets (in terms of the prices offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds the market offers or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NRFI (No Runs First Inning) Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 8:00 AM ET

Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (-115)

The first of our top pitching matchups happens today at Camden Yards as we get a battle of surging left-handers. Trevor Rogers got hit around a bit by Detroit in his last start, but has been in good form for the most part for over a month and is riding a 10-game NRFI streak.

Meanwhile, Reid Detmers makes his first start for the Halos since NOT being traded to Chicago (the deal fell through). He's coming off a dominant outing against Houston and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three straight starts. His NRFI record sits at 7-3 over his last ten starts, and he has arguably the best matchup on the board as the Orioles post-deadline lineup is looking quite exploitable (more on this later).

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (-144)

The Pirates need a win badly to stop the bleeding as they've dropped to four games out of the Wild Card. They'll turn to Paul Skenes, who is supposed to be their ace, but who has looked fairly human this year. He has been pretty effective in the first inning; however, it's been the second or third time through the order where he's run into a lot of his trouble.

The Brewers counter with Kyle Harrison, who was enjoying the best start to a season of his young career before being sidelined for the last month. He is 9-1 on NRFIs over his last ten starts, and I like his chances of blanking the Bucco bats, which have gone pretty cold lately, in the first frame here.

MLB Team Totals

Houston Astros over 4.5 runs (-104) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Jameson Taillon)

The Houston offense has been surging of late, scoring at least five runs in five of their last six games. They may have the best hitter in baseball in Yordan Alvarez, and added another solid lefty at the deadline by acquiring Daulton Varsho from the Jays.

Yordan Alvarez is unstoppable.

His 4th hit of the game to put the Astros ahead 7-3! pic.twitter.com/6mFWp5HRGb

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) August 2, 2026

They'll face Taillon, who came over from Chicago, where he struggled to a 5.92 ERA and 5.87 xERA. He allowed at least four earned runs in five of his last seven starts, and I'm not sure why we'd expect much better from him with a change of scenery. It's not as if Toronto can "fix" him in only a week, and his issue isn't control related; it's really a matter of him just not having the type of stuff that he once had back in Pittsburgh before his arm injuries.

San Diego Padres over 4.5 runs (-122) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Mitch Bratt)

This is the third straight week that we are riding the Padres' team total in this article! If it ain't broke, don't fix it! San Diego continues to hit the ball this month, and they've now scored five or more runs in seven of their last ten games. When we expand that to games where they faced left-handed starters, the hit rate goes up to 80% over their last ten games!

Mitch Bratt has not been good so far in the majors, and that's an understatement! His SIERA of 6.59 is even worse than his 5.23 ERA, and he's walking more hitters (15.3%) than he's striking out (12.2%). I look for the Padres to feast on the rookie in this spot and continue to pile up runs as they make their push for the playoffs.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER to receive a $25 purchase match (50% off up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

You also get six months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 8:00 AM ET

Reid Detmers OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Detmers is the top play on the board, but we are paying some juice at these odds. I'm fine with it, because just LOOK at these K-rates from the Orioles against lefties this season!

Detmers is definitely playable at over 7.5, too, as he's an elite strikeout pitcher when he has his best stuff. I try not to read too much into any narratives surrounding him not getting traded, and I tend to think he's going to want to strike everyone out today just as he would in any other start.

Trevor Rogers OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Staying in this game, we can't ignore the strikeout potential for lefty Trevor Rogers either. We saw Cade Povich whiff seven Angels last night, and the Halos no longer have Jo Adell (traded) or Jorge Soler (demoted) in this lineup.

Jose Siri is a strikeout machine, and as much as I like Mo Ballesteros, he's sporting a high K-rate, too. Guzman and Meckler both check in with K-rates well over 30%, too, yikes!

Rogers has six or more strikeouts in three straight and I like his chances of extending that streak today.

Sean Burke OVER 17.5 OUTS (-120)

Whoa, is Dan feeling okay? Aren't we betting on Sean Burke's strikeouts today? Well, you still can, but his prop has moved to 6.5 now, and he's facing a Boston lineup that has been heating up.

I like his outs prop a bit more today. He's gone six innings or more (18+ outs) in five straight starts and seven of his last eight. He's cut down on walks in a big way, and it has led to more efficiency from him as well as more trust from his manager to let him pitch through some sticky situations in the middle innings.

Will Warren OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+102)

I am not a big Warren fan, but I can't help but like his K prop today at such a low number and good odds. He's coming off a seven-strikeout performance against the Cubs, shutting them out for nearly seven innings, and should see at least four righties in the St. Louis lineup, which favors his strikeout splits (27% vs. RHP this season).

Christian Scott OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-133)

These are odds you can't find anywhere else, and you'd have to take Scott at 5.5 on other books. Take the discount, even if it means paying a bit more juice as Scott has been nearly automatic for five strikeouts this season (hit the over in 13 of 14 starts), but if you expand it out to six or more, that hit rate drops to 64% (9/14)

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