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About Rick Lucks - RotoBaller
Hello fellow Rotoballers!
I'm a guy that was reading fantasy baseball magazines before I was old enough to legally play. Now that I am, lets win some leagues together!
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Rick Lucks - RotoBaller has written 322 articles so far, you can find them below.
Prospecting can be an excellent way to find value on draft day and beyond, but every year a couple are hyped to the point that you need them to reach their full upside just to break even on your investment. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seems to be that guy in 2019, as he is currently being... Read More
If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the so-called Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures.... Read More
Champ or Chump began the year with two positive outlooks because it's always a good idea to begin your draft prep with a dose of optimism. However, you won't win your league on draft day no matter how many players you like end up on your roster. You can lose your league on draft day... Read More
Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many owners... Read More
Hello fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series attempts to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Twenty degrees... Read More
The new year is upon us, which means that it's officially time to start preparing for your 2019 fantasy baseball drafts (if you haven't yet). This column will take a deep dive into two player profiles to attempt to predict how players will perform for their fantasy owners before they take the plunge. We'll start by... Read More
When fantasy owners invest an early draft pick in a player, they generally assume that the player in question is a lock to put up excellent fantasy stats. Joey Votto has been a model of consistency throughout his career, slashing .320/.454/.578 with 36 bombs in 2017. Unfortunately, he only produced 12 HR for his owners... Read More
We continue our 2019 fantasy baseball preview with two names who could not have had more different seasons in 2018. Gary Sanchez entered last draft season as the consensus top catcher on the board. Unfortunately for his owners, he's been struggling with the Mendoza line all season. Meanwhile, Mookie Betts has gone nuts for the... Read More
The Tampa Bay Rays would be leading three of baseball's six divisions with their current record, success largely the result of the successful "opener" strategy and Blake Snell's breakout campaign. It'll probably take fantasy owners all winter to figure out how to use openers to our advantage, but Snell's skills should be easy enough to... Read More
We begin our ridiculously early look at the 2019 fantasy baseball landscape with two of the bigger breakouts of the 2018 season. Trevor Story has gone from a barely top-100 asset to a potential MVP candidate, returning tremendous value to anyone who drafted him in March. Ronald Acuna Jr. should probably win the National League's... Read More
This will be the last column of the year that pays any attention to 2018 forecasts. With H2H playoffs winding down and roto leagues all but locked up, there just isn't that much that statistical analysis can do over a sample size of two weeks. We'll keep at it though by examining some of the... Read More
Recently, some unheralded minor leaguers have been making noise at the MLB level. Toronto's Rowdy Tellez is a 23-year old first baseman with an 80-grade name and more extra base hits over his first 15 PAs than anybody in baseball history. His MiLB resume suggests some power and an advanced feel for the strike zone,... Read More
We are in the final stretch now, and the sad truth is that the fates of most fantasy teams have already been sealed. The players below are available in at least 30 percent of leagues, but our focus will begin to shift toward 2019 draft prep. With so much data available on so many players,... Read More
The August waiver deadline has come and gone, leaving several brand name players with new home addresses. Gio Gonzalez joins Milwaukee's rotation even though the team already had plenty of bad pitchers. He's a total random number generator who might ruin your team's WHIP by walking six in three innings or your ERA by allowing... Read More
Last time, we looked at a couple of widely available waiver wire options who could help owners get the steals or homers they need to move up in the standings. It's also possible that you need to improve your batting average (or OBP), but rate stats can be more difficult to make a dent in... Read More
By this point in the season, some roto leagues have effectively been decided. Most of the field is almost certainly thinking about next year, but it's possible that a few teams are still competing for a money spot. If there is still a battle going on, it almost certainly boils down to one or two... Read More
We're taking a closer look at two names who would be nearly universally owned if they put up their current numbers earlier in the MLB season. The 24-year-old Nick Williams has looked like a hitter for Philadelphia, slashing .264/.332/.454 with 17 long balls in 383 PAs on the season. His peripherals don't quite support that... Read More
Of all player profiles, Chris Archer's has to be the most bizarre. His raw stuff and strikeout totals suggest an ace, yet his ERA never seems to match up with metrics such as xFIP. Analysts like to say that he's consistently hit hard, but his career BABIP and HR/FB align almost perfectly with the league... Read More
If David Bote and Jacob Nix had gotten off to the starts they've had in May, they would be nearly universally owned as fantasy owners pounce on the next big thing. However, it's August. The vast majority of fantasy baseball rosters have been abandoned in favor of the real-life pennant chase, hockey, basketball, and that... Read More
This column doesn't usually venture into relievers, as I generally believe that their small sample sizes and dependence on saves (a stat that basically measures how much a manager trusts a given guy for whatever reason) make a quantitative analysis moot. However, I (and many others) have struggled with Houston's decision to give up real... Read More
We've reached a point of the year where choosing players for this column becomes more difficult. There's still plenty of season left, so it's too early to shift gears to 2019. Yet fantasy trade deadlines are rapidly approaching, making it impossible to acquire any player not currently on your roster or on a waiver wire... Read More
We're back to cover a few more guys who moved at the Trade Deadline. I didn't mention Lance Lynn before, but his acquisition by the Yankees was strange. The ball flies out of Yankee Bandbox, and Lynn had a severe case of gopheritis in Minnesota. He's not an option in any competitive format. This column... Read More
The Trade Deadline has passed, but the dust is yet to settle for fantasy purposes. The Brewers acquired Jonathan Schoop to apparently share two positions with Travis Shaw and Mike Moustakas. You probably don't want to count on anybody in the timeshare until it's clear how often everyone will play. Jonathan Villar figures to get... Read More
The moves just keep on coming. Joakim Soria no longer has an obvious path to saves, so he can be dropped in most formats. Luke Voit, Chasen Shreve, Jonny Venters, and Ryan Pressly are not fantasy-relevant in most formats regardless of their home park. Eduardo Escobar is heading to the desert, where a superior lineup... Read More
The moves continue to trickle in. Zach Britton is heading to the Bronx, where he figures to have zero fantasy value as the team's sixth-best reliever (if he proves he's healthy). Brad Brach got the first save opportunity in Baltimore after Britton left, but the team has a bunch of arms who could receive ninth... Read More
The Trade Deadline moves started early, with Manny Machado heading to Hollywood. Elite players are likely to remain elite regardless of where they play, but Machado's fantasy value is probably due for a slight hit. Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia are the other notable fantasy options on the move, and both figure to see a... Read More
It's officially the All-Star Break, a time when it's always fun to take a closer look at who was on the rosters. You have surefire studs like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. You have guys who came out of nowhere such as Blake Snell and Jesus Aguilar. Finally, you have elder statesmen like Nick Markakis... Read More
Several rookie pitchers have been sent down to the minors in recent days, including a few that we've previously examined in this column (Walker Buehler, Freddy Peralta). Teams are just manipulating their rosters in light of the upcoming All Star break though, so there's no need to panic if you've invested in them. Speaking of... Read More
I tried to give up the prospect beat in this space last time, but then the Giants summoned Steven Duggar from the minor leagues. He had some buzz during Spring Training, so he probably warrants a closer look even if he's a little older than the average prospect (age 24). Jorge Polanco also returned from... Read More
This column has spent a lot of time covering prospects so far in 2018. We've had some calls that proved correct (Shane Bieber, Ronald Acuna, Fernando Romero) and others that don't look as great in hindsight (Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres). The Astros called up top prospect Kyle Tucker prior to Saturday's action, so we'll take... Read More
