Champ or Chump: Nacho Alvarez and Edouard Julien Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

Injuries are unavoidable in professional sports, and fantasy managers are accustomed to scrambling for a replacement when a major player goes down. If there's a bright side, injuries often open up opportunities for intriguing players. For instance, Ozzie Albies is expected to miss at least eight weeks with a wrist injury. The Braves are calling... Read More

Champ or Chump: Willi Castro and Jurickson Profar Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

Nothing is better than seeing one of your sleeper picks named to a spot in the All-Star Game. Whether you're rewarded for your preseason draft prep or waiver wire savviness, it's confirmation that you're doing something right. Of course, first-half All-Stars can turn into second-half disappointments. Willi Castro might be an All-Star, but there's an... Read More

Champ or Chump: Brooks Lee and Jake Irvin Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

With the All-Star Game and MLB trade deadline rapidly approaching, now is the ideal time for fantasy managers to look at player performances. Importantly, surface stats rarely tell the whole story. For instance, Brooks Lee is a 23-year-old top prospect hitting .474/.476/.684 with a homer in his first 21 PAs for Minnesota. His peripherals suggest... Read More

Champ or Chump: James Wood Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Once again, a huge prospect made his MLB debut. James Wood, 21, is the No. 3 prospect in the game per FanGraphs and MLB.com, and his tools are comparable to Elly De La Cruz. He has crushed MiLB pitching, combining an advanced plate approach with eye-popping exit velocity numbers. Of course, many highly-touted rookies have... Read More

Champ or Chump: Spencer Horwitz and Ben Rice Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

Fantasy managers in on-base percentage or points formats are in luck. Two of the most interesting names broadly available on waivers, Spencer Horwitz and Ben Rice, have plate discipline as their carrying skills. Both offer multipositional eligibility and are off to hot starts. Both are also relative unknowns in fantasy circles, so managers probably don't... Read More

Champ or Chump: Jake McCarthy and Heliot Ramos Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

Mookie Betts fractured his left wrist on Sunday, leaving fantasy managers scrambling for a replacement. If you're using Betts in the middle infield, the preferred replacement is David Hamilton. Hamilton bizarrely lost playing time so the Red Sox could play center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela (four Outs Above Average) as a terrible shortstop (-6 OAA), but... Read More

Champ or Chump: Drew Thorpe and Mitchell Parker Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

They say that pitching wins championships. That might be true, but bad pitching loses championships far more quickly. While most leagues have only one offensive rate stat (batting average or OBP), there are two for pitching (ERA and WHIP). If your league has an innings cap and counts strikeouts, K/9 effectively becomes a third rate... Read More

Champ or Chump: Justyn-Henry Malloy and Mark Vientos Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

We're two months into the season, and MLB clubs are officially deviating from their preseason plans. Spencer Torkelson, Brett Baty, Reid Detmers, and Edouard Julien all figured to be major pieces in their organizations, and as of today, all four are in the minor leagues. Fantasy managers may also need to start making tough decisions... Read More

Champ or Chump: David Fry and Matt Waldron Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

Managing your fantasy baseball rosters can feel like work. You double-check your lineups, research waiver options, and watch your team daily. It's also easy to feel down if your teams aren't performing as expected. Wasn't fantasy baseball supposed to be fun? One solution to this is rostering "fun" players you'd like to follow anyway, but... Read More

Champ or Chump: Robert Gasser and Christian Scott Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

Fantasy managers never seem to have enough pitching, so it's easy to make a claim whenever an arm makes a promising debut. Sadly, many of these arms blow up our ratios, forcing us back to the wire to rinse and repeat. Of course, we cannot ignore waiver arms either. Wins, strikeouts, saves, and quality starts... Read More

Champ or Chump: Paul Skenes Fantasy Baseball Outlook

A new era dawned in Pittsburgh on May 11. Paul Skenes, age 21, made his MLB debut and racked up seven strikeouts in just four innings. The team won, and baseball fans were treated to the most anticipated debut of a prospect pitcher since Stephen Strasburg. Pirates fans are understandably excited, but what should fantasy... Read More

Champ or Chump: Josh Hader, Corey Seager, Corbin Carroll Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

The calendar has flipped to May, so it's time to assess your fantasy players. Players who aren't performing may force us to adjust our expectations moving forward rather than assume positive regression is coming. Of course, we don't want to cut bait on a superstar who goes supernova for five months, either. It's a delicate... Read More

Champ or Chump: Joey Loperfido and Pete Crow-Armstrong Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

This column is not exclusively about prospects, but most of the interesting names this time of year are prospects. Next week, we'll try to find something to look at other than prospects. That's not an option this week. Two more names of note have recently been called up: Pete Crow-Armstrong and Joey Loperfido. Both offer... Read More

Champ or Chump: Andy Pages and Jonatan Clase Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

Last week, we explored how prospect rankings don't always equate to immediate fantasy baseball value. You probably want to roster Jackson Holliday in 2028, but his chances of making a quick impact in our game are low. The converse is also true. Players who don't have much prospect pedigree may have just the skills your... Read More

Jackson Holliday: Fantasy Baseball Champ or Chump?

Well-regarded prospects are breaking camp with their clubs more frequently these days, which is why Wyatt Langford started with the Rangers and Jackson Merrill got a trip to South Korea. However, the fantasy community is greedy. We want every top prospect to debut on Opening Day. As such, many fantasy managers were disappointed when the... Read More

Champ or Chump: David Hamilton, Blaze Alexander, Justin Foscue Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

If your fantasy roster needs middle infield help, injuries give you several options. David Hamilton should receive everyday run after Trevor Story dislocated his shoulder, Blaze Alexander is the beneficiary of Jordan Lawlar and Geraldo Perdomo going down in Arizona, and Justin Foscue was expected to get at-bats after Josh Jung broke his wrist. With... Read More

Champ or Chump: Victor Scott II and Colt Keith Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

The 2024 fantasy baseball season is officially underway, and it's easy to overreact to one series of games. Everything is a small sample size that shouldn't change your preseason valuations much outside of playing time. That said, slow starts can create buying opportunities for intriguing players who would have cost much more a month ago.... Read More

Fantasy Baseball Champs or Chumps: Jackson Merrill, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wyatt Langford

The Orioles sent shockwaves throughout the baseball world by sending top prospect Jackson Holliday to Triple-A to begin the season, leaving fantasy baseball managers who rolled the dice on him scrambling for a replacement. It seems some teams prefer service time games to being good, even with the incentives in the new CBA. Fortunately, plenty... Read More

Hunter Brown - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Sleepers (2024)

BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 136 CURRENT ADP: ~156 overall ANALYSIS: A surface-level analysis would suggest that Hunter Brown is a great sleeper for 2024. His 5.09 ERA masked a 3.52 xFIP across his 155⅔ IP, his 26.8 K% and 8.3 BB% were solid, and his .330 BABIP, 68.8% strand rate, and 21% HR/FB appear primed... Read More

ADP Champ or Chump: Jose Leclerc, Anthony Santander, and Andres Gimenez

Once a fantasy baseball draft gets going, it's all too easy to fall into the trap of looking at a guy's numbers and trusting that's who he is. In truth, just as many players perform to their 30th or 70th percentiles as their 50th. You can't always believe what you see. Three examples on 2024... Read More

Tyler O'Neill - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Sleepers (2024)

BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 185 CURRENT ADP: ~276 ANALYSIS: Tyler O'Neill didn't have a great 2023, slashing .231/.312/.403 with nine homers and five steals over 266 PAs. Injuries cost him some time, but the Cardinals also benched O'Neill regularly when healthy. It prevented him from getting into a rhythm and showing what he... Read More

Rick Lucks' 2024 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions

Eric Cross kicked off our 2024 fantasy baseball bold predictions series, and now I'm going to build on that momentum and share 10 bold predictions of my own. As a reminder, bold predictions aren't supposed to be likely outcomes but long shots with a purpose. My predictions in particular all do one of two things.... Read More

ADP Champ or Chump: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Brandon Pfaadt, and Will Smith

As we approach peak fantasy baseball draft season, it's crunch time. You might think you know each player's value, but double-checking never hurts. We're back with three names of interest on draft day: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Brandon Pfaadt, and Will Smith. Chisholm was the cover athlete for MLB The Show 2023, Pfaadt looked like a... Read More

ADP Champ or Chump: Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Webb, and Maikel Garcia

Welcome to another year of Champ or Chump! In this column, we take deep dives into fantasy baseball player profiles to determine whether the player is a "Champ" worth adding or a "Chump" better left to someone else. We'll look at each player's NFBC ADP and whether they will likely justify their cost in this... Read More

Statcast xStats: Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Statcast is a valuable tool for fantasy baseball analysis, and it can be easy to look at a stat called "Expected Batting Average" and blindly use it as your projection. Of course, proper use of these metrics is a little more nuanced than that. First, a disclaimer: This article is about the "Expected Stats" found... Read More

Average Draft Position: Making Sense of ADP for Fantasy Baseball

ADP, or Average Draft Position, is one of the most commonly cited statistics in fantasy baseball discourse. It allows owners to look at a single number and quickly determine a player's market value, making it easier to identify potential value picks in a draft. Furthermore, fantasy analysts can use it to determine how a particular... Read More

Statcast Pitch Tracking: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

When you're evaluating a pitcher by Pitch Info on FanGraphs, sometimes you see pitches that don't seem to accomplish anything. If Pitch X is seldom a strike, rarely chased outside of the zone, and not generating whiffs or a favorable batted line against, why doesn't the pitcher scrap it entirely? Some pitchers could improve by... Read More

Spin Rate: Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job of conveying what spin rate really means. The result has been a ton of fantasy managers who know spin rate exists,... Read More

Pitcher Statcast: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Statcast metrics such as Barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a fantasy baseball batter's performance, so it is only natural to assume that the metrics would be predictive for pitchers as well. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet, there... Read More

Barrels and Brls/BBE: Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Previously, we looked at how exit velocity is only one piece of the fantasy baseball analysis puzzle. Baseball broadcasts commonly cite Launch Angle (LA) to complement their EV figures, but it is given in terms of degrees. Are we trying to find the hypotenuse of an isosceles triangle? Launch angle is basically a fancy way... Read More