X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

What Is Statcast Contact Quality for Pitchers? Fantasy Baseball Sabermetrics Glossary (2025)

Kevin Gausman - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

What is Statcast contact quality for pitchers and how to use sabermetrics for fantasy baseball? Definition includes Brls/BBE and average airborne exit velocity (EV) for pitchers.

Welcome RotoBallers to our overview of Statcast contact quality metrics for pitchers. This article is a deeper dive into the predictive value of metrics such as Brls/BBE and average airborne exit velocity (EV) for pitchers, and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball."

In this article, we'll discover which pitchers led MLB in barrels allowed, Brls/BBE, and average airborne EV in 2024. We'll also look at some of the past names atop those leaderboards, including fantasy mainstays you wouldn't want to cross off your list preemptively on draft day.

You can find our entire sabermetrics glossary, which includes links to many other sabermetric stats as part of this series. Each stat deep dive will be released over the next few days. Stay tuned!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Statcast Contact Quality Metrics for Pitchers

Statcast metrics such as barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a fantasy baseball batter's performance, so it is natural to assume that the metrics would also be predictive for pitchers. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet, there is evidence that pitchers do not have the same influence over barrels as a batter.

Aaron Judge recorded a league-leading 105 barrels in 2024. JP Sears copped the league lead among pitchers by allowing 57, a significantly lower number than Judge's total. This fits well with DIPS theory, which states that batters can do more to influence batted balls than pitchers can.

It's also not fantasy-relevant, as Sears isn't an appealing fantasy option. The next four names on the leaderboard include Austin Gomber, Carlos Rodon, Kevin Gausman, and Kutter Crawford, all tied with 52 barrels allowed. Are these numbers indicative of anything?

 

How to Interpret Statcast Contact Quality Allowed

Gausman is by far the most interesting name on that list for fantasy. He's a former ace, but his rate of Brls/BBE isn't the reason for his down 2024. His 9.7 percent mark was slightly better than his 2023 mark of 9.9 percent, though his ERA was much stronger in 2023 (3.16) than in 2024 (3.83). We can even go back to 2022 and see that an 8.1 percent Brls/BBE rate only produced a 3.35 ERA.

It doesn't look like Gausman's Brls/BBE has anything to do with his bottom-line performance. Using the Brls/BBE leaderboard might seem like a better bet than raw Barrel totals. Still, the Brls/BBE leaderboard is full of undraftable pitchers: Tanner Rainey (14.3 percent), Max Meyer (13.9 percent), Roddy Munoz (13.7 percent), Taijuan Walker (13.4 percent), and Triston McKenzie (13 percent).

We don't need a fancy stat to avoid those arms. Maybe we need to simplify this and use average airborne exit velocity. The top six in FB/LD EV allowed last season were Keaton Winn (96.7 mph), Camilo Doval (96.4), a tie between Ryan Pressly and Meyer (96), and another tie between Ben Brown and Bobby Miller (95.9).

There are some interesting names on that list, but nothing actionable in fantasy. Doval averaged 94.1 mph in 2023, while Pressly averaged 94.6, meaning looking at the 2023 numbers wouldn't have given you pause before their down seasons. We've struck out again in our search for something predictive.

 

A Case Study of Statcast Contact Quality Allowed

Robbie Ray, SP, San Francisco Giants

Extreme examples are often useful tools to examine broader trends. 2021 AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray always had a reputation for being hit hard. Ray's Statcast contact quality metrics weren't good in his Cy season, as his raw total of 46 Barrels allowed tied for the 10th-highest among qualified pitchers while his 9.8 percent rate of Brls/BBE ranked 15th that year.

It also didn't matter if his 2.84 ERA was any indication. Take a look:

Ray was in the 15th percentile for average EV allowed, 16th for Barrel%, and 17th for hard-hit%. He still "deserved" a batting average against of just .219, suggesting the contact quality metrics failed to capture much of anything.

Lest you dismiss Ray's 2021 season as "lucky," it's worth pointing out that his reputation for allowing hard contact isn't reflected in his career Statcast numbers. The following chart lists Ray's Brls/BBE and ERA from 2015-2022, exempting 2020 for sample size purposes:

Year          Brls/BBE          ERA

2015          5.1%                   3.52

2016          6.9%                  4.90

2017          5.1%                   2.89

2018         8.7%                   3.93

2019         10.6%                 4.34

2021         9.8%                   2.84

2022         7.9%                   3.71

Ray's Barrels allowed him to fluctuate wildly, with his best ERA corresponding to his second-worst Brls/BBE mark. In 2022, Ray's ERA ballooned by almost a full run despite dropping his rate of Brls/BBE by nearly two full percentage points. If there is anything predictive here, this author fails to see it.

Looking at contact quality metrics would have prevented you from rostering profitable arms. Past top-5 lists included names such as Justin Verlander, Luis Castillo, Shane McClanahan, Framber Valdez, and Nathan Eovaldi, all of whom have been fantasy stalwarts since their appearances. Ouch.

 

Conclusion

Ultimately, Statcast metrics such as barrels and average airborne EV should probably just be ignored for pitcher analysis. These metrics are great for evaluating batters, but this author can't get anything out of them for pitchers, even with the benefit of hindsight. That conclusion may make this seem like a worthless article, but it isn't.

Seemingly every fantasy analyst uses contact quality to credit pitchers, either through the Statcast numbers above or an approximation such as the Hard% posted on FanGraphs. This type of analysis may explain a pitcher's performance after the fact, but it seems to have zero predictive value. Therefore, you can gain a competitive advantage by ignoring it completely.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Sabermetrics & Statcast for Fantasy Baseball




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Matthew Stafford

Expected to Start in Week 1
Edward Cabrera

Heading to Injured List With Elbow Sprain
Najee Harris

Cleared for Contact, Could Play in Week 1
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Harry Ford

Called Up for Major-League Debut
Victor Scott II

Activated From Injured List
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Dealing With Hamstring Tightness, Expects to Play Monday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Agrees to a One-Year Contract with Milwaukee
Kyrie Irving

"Healing Up Great"
Dante Exum

Mavs Agree on a One-Year Deal
Jaylen Warren

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Steelers
De'Von Achane

Practicing Monday, on Track to Play in Week 1
Quinshon Judkins

Could Report to Browns This Week
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs, Trent McDuffie Not Expected to Finalize Extension
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Dameon Pierce

Ahead of Schedule, Ready for Season
Jordan Love

May Wear Thumb Brace During Season
Chicago Bears

Bears Head Coach Admits Offense Could Face Learning Curve
Matt Chapman

Leaves Early on Sunday, Expects to Play Monday
A.J. Brown

Says He'll Be Active For Season Opener
Luis Garcia

to Make Season Debut on Monday
Max Scherzer

Exits Due to Back Tightness
Taylor Ward

Exits Early After Collison
Braelon Allen

Says He Has a Lot Left to Prove
Sal Stewart

Reds Promoting Sal Stewart to Majors
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Randy Rodríguez

Randy Rodriguez to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic to Miss the Rest of EuroBasket
Denny Hamlin

Picking Up Where He Left Off At Darlington
Kyle Larson

The Sky Is The Limit for Kyle Larson at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

a Strong DFS Play at Darlington This Weekend
Tyler Reddick

Shouldn't Be Overlooked at Darlington This Weekend
Alex Bowman

An Easy Place-Differential Play in DFS This Weekend
Ty Gibbs

Could Be Strong at Darlington This Weekend
Erik Jones

Has Best Darlington Qualifying Effort Since Last Win
Zane Smith

Hopeful For Another Solid Run At Darlington
Aroldis Chapman

Agrees to Contract Extension
Juan Soto

Homers Twice in Loss
Nick Kurtz

Avoids Serious Injury
MacKenzie Gore

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Reaches 25-Homer, 25-Steal Milestone
Chris Sale

Activated on Saturday
Dansby Swanson

Homers Twice, Drives in Six in Win
Nick Kurtz

Leaves Game With Oblique Soreness
Joe Burrow

Bengals Feel Joe Burrow Just had "the Best Training Camp of his Career"
Randy Rodríguez

Tommy John Surgery Recommended for Randy Rodriguez
Corey Seager

Placed on Injured List
Jackson Chourio

to Return From Injured List on Saturday
Dallas Mavericks

Olivier-Maxence Prosper Waived by the Mavs
Lauri Markkanen

Dominant in Win Over Great Britain
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Leads Serbia to a Win
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Shines Versus Portugal
De'Von Achane

Should be Ready for Week 1
Jose Alvarado

"Good" After Recent Fall
Green Bay Packers

Packers Acquire Micah Parsons, Sign him to Four-Year Extension
Jauan Jennings

Remains Sidelined at Practice
Chris Godwin

to Miss First Month of Season, Possibly More
Quinshon Judkins

Not Considering Return to College
A.J. Brown

Returns to Practice, Expected to Play in Week 1
Jaylen Wright

Undergoes Surgery, Could be Back "Septemberish"
Tyreek Hill

on Track to Play in Week 1
Kyren Williams

to See Reduced Workload?
Lauri Markkanen

Torches Sweden
Neemias Queta

Dominates in EuroBasket Opener
Kawhi Leonard

Clippers Not Allowing Kawhi Leonard to Play Back-to-Backs
Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks Looking to Trade Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Tyrese Haliburton

Expects to Return in 15 Months
Terance Mann

Confident About Having a Big Year in Brooklyn
Zaccharie Risacher

Aims to Improve Ball-Handling Skills
NBA

Pistons And Timberwolves Join Race for Malik Beasley
John Tonje

Signs Two-Way Deal With Jazz
Max Strus

to Miss 3-4 Months After Surgery

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP