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Welcome back to Rotoballer's series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and enlighten ourselves on the information and tools at our disposal. We've surpassed the quarter mark of the 2018 baseball season and with each additional... Read More

Home run distance is often bandied about as a stat meant inspire awe for today's most prolific sluggers. Upper deck moonshots and splashes in McCovey's Cove are quite possibly the most entertaining moments to watch for casual fans, but fantasy baseball owners reap no benefit for additional distance reached. Simply put, a homer is a... Read More

Welcome back to Rotoballer's series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and enlighten ourselves on the information and tools at our disposal. One of fantasy baseball's most gut-wrenching feelings is tuning into your pitcher starts only... Read More

As we enter the seventh week of the baseball season, there is a large enough sample size to rightfully pass judgment on a player's performance without expecting a sudden or dramatic change. While it's easy to glance at the HR leaderboard and determine that these players are tearing the cover off the ball, there are... Read More

When looking to confirm or refute fast starts, we can quickly turn to Statcast Leaderboards for information. While we could fill out a full search, the leaderboards are a quick way to see which hitters are barreling up balls in 2018. While sabermetrics don't always translate to fantasy leaders, they are often a great indicator of... Read More

Welcome back to Rotoballer's series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and I enlighten myself on the information and tools at my disposal. For Week 6, we'll continue our theme from last week arguing that by... Read More

We continue our RotoBaller series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and I enlighten myself on the information and tools at my disposal. With a month of baseball in the books, most starting pitchers have logged... Read More

We continue our RotoBaller series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and I enlighten myself on the information and tools at my disposal. My predictive confidence face-planted over the weekend as two of my calls in... Read More

RotoBaller embarks on a new series this year using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performance. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and I enlighten myself on the information and tools at my disposal. This week we'll focus on a popular batted-ball metric, Batting... Read More

This year, RotoBaller is embarking on a new series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over box scores to examine pitching performance. I'm honored to take the reins on this new endeavor. The structure of the series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings weekly and I gradually make myself smarter about... Read More

Once you've grown accustomed to having advanced tools to help make fantasy decisions, it can feel disorientating to be without them. Prospects are increasingly becoming a focal point in both real and fantasy baseball, but the minors simply do not have all of the data available for MLB players. For example, advanced plate discipline stats,... Read More

Previously, we looked at Barrels, a stat combining exit velocity and launch angle to measure how often a batter makes quality hard contact. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is some evidence that pitchers do not have the same influence... Read More

Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job conveying what spin rate really means. The result has been a ton of owners who know that spin rate exists, but... Read More

Conventional baseball wisdom harps on the importance of the first-pitch strike (F-strike%). As pitchers get ahead in counts, they gain an advantage on hitters and have more pitch choices at their disposal. However, smart people discovered a hitter's average with a 0-1 count (.321) is only marginally worse than a 1-0 count (.337). The pitch... Read More

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data... Read More

The league average batted ball distribution in 2017 was 20.3% liners, 44.2% grounders and 35.5% flies. We have previously seen how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls. Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.130 BABIP in 2017) consistently have lower BABIPs than worm... Read More

If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line. Ballpark Factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real life schedule.... Read More

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some... Read More

The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory that the metric is based upon, pitchers control only Ks, BBs (and HBP) and home... Read More

To this point, this series has focused exclusively on trying to predict and validate home runs and batting average. There is a reason for this--modern sabermetrics tend to reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats, and are unhelpful... Read More

Earlier in this series, we saw that fantasy owners generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air in order to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. Today we'll... Read More

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Adam Dunn and Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff a lot... Read More

Steals are an important statistic in fantasy baseball. They represent 10% of scoring categories in 5x5 leagues and earn an equivalent value or more to singles, runs and RBI in points leagues. Comparing runs and stolen bases, the fantasy significance of a steal is certainly overvalued versus its real baseball relevance. The Run Expectancy table... Read More

When it comes to predictive metrics, MLB's statcast has afforded the baseball community a wealth of data since its league-wide installation in 2015. One of the more intriguing metrics is expected wOBA, or xwOBA. This statistic gives us the expected wOBA for a player based on the hit probability of batted balls, calculated using exit... Read More

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution and the manner in which batters make contact. In... Read More

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the so-called Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures.... Read More

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many owners... Read More

Hello fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series attempts to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Twenty degrees... Read More

With spring training on the horizon, fantasy baseball draft season is in sight, as well. That means it’s time to pore over rankings, go through countless mock drafts, and do plenty of research trying to find that diamond in the rough other owners are undervaluing. Luckily, more statistics are available than ever before to determine... Read More

Last time, we looked at Barrels, a stat combining exit velocity and launch angle to measure how often a batter makes quality hard contact. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is some evidence that pitchers do not have the same... Read More

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