X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Exit Velocity: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Rick Lucks discusses how exit velocity (EV) can be used to predict a fantasy baseball player's future performance in his ongoing series on making sabermetrics more accessible to fantasy managers.

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures. There is a relationship there, but it is not as clear-cut as you might think.

The hardest-batted ball of the 2022 season was struck by Oneil Cruz. It was clocked at 122.4 mph, but Cruz only got a single for his efforts. The hardest-hit home run was tied for the second-hardest hit ball overall: a 119.8 mph blast off the bat of Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton tied with himself, reaching on an error on the other batted ball clocked at 119.8 mph. Stanton also hit the fifth, sixth, and seventh hardest-batted balls of the season, with Cruz and Shohei Ohtani each appearing in the top 10 twice.

Most of the data in this article comes from the "Search" function on Baseball Savant but be warned that its interface is far from intuitive and that it can take several minutes to load your search results even with a strong internet connection. You may also get random error messages just because. With that out of the way, let's take a closer look at how the EV readings on Baseball Savant can give you an advantage in your fantasy leagues.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

How Can I Use EV to Predict BABIP on Ground Balls?

The best way to get a feel for how hard a given batter usually hits the ball is to look at his average exit velocity. The league average mark in 2022 was 88.6 mph, but that stat is of little value. The exit velocity on airborne balls (both flies and line drives but not pop-ups) is all you need when evaluating a player's HR/FB rate, while ground ball exit velocity is the best indicator of a high BABIP on ground balls. Sadly, a lot of analysts ignore context and use overall average exit velocity to evaluate both HR/FB and BABIP.

You really shouldn't do that unless you believe that a grounder has a chance of going over the fence. Hard% is even worse, as it assumes that all batted balls of at least 95 mph are equal and makes no attempt to differentiate ground balls from airborne ones. So how do you figure out what's useful among these sabermetric measures? As always, the answer lies in placing these numbers in their proper context.

Major league batters averaged an EV of 85.7 mph on ground balls in 2022, and every mph above or below that figure is very important. For instance, hitters produced a batting average of just .155 on balls in the 82-84 mph bucket in 2022, dramatically affecting results even though the velocity doesn't seem that much lower than the league average.

As we've previously seen, players who can be shifted should be expected to struggle on grounders regardless of EV, while faster players can punch above their weight. Much like broader BABIP, it is a good idea to compare a player's current BABIP on ground balls to his previous work to account for these factors. As such, average exit velocity on grounders should be seen as one piece of a larger puzzle instead of the end of your BABIP analysis.

 

How Can I Use EV to Predict HR/FB?

In 2022, the average airborne exit velocity in Major League Baseball was 92.7 mph. All other things being equal, a batter with an average airborne EV in the same area would be expected to be near the league-average HR/FB. Six qualified hitters matched the league-average EV on airborne batted balls last year: Brandon Drury, Nolan Arenado, Yoan Moncada, Tommy Edman, Tim Anderson, and Elias Diaz.

Of these, Drury crushed the league's 11.4% HR/FB with a 17.9% figure that should be expected to regress holding everything else constant. Arenado should be safe since his 12.3% HR/FB was essentially league average, and the rest posted below-average HR/FB marks last year. Importantly, none of Moncada, Edman, Anderson, and Diaz are known as power hitters and most should have seen their HR/FB boosted by their home parks. This isn't a group to look for power upside in.

While airborne EV is an important power metric to look at, other variables can prove more important. Ironically, airborne exit velocity's most important use may be to confirm whether a player besting his career BABIP on fly balls and/or line drives can continue to do so.

 

Conclusion

Hitting the ball hard is obviously a good thing, but limiting your fantasy analysis to just exit velocity is asking for trouble. Variables such as strong pull tendencies and foot speed can trump raw EV in a player's BABIP on ground balls, while home park, launch angle, and Pull% can all support elevated HR/FB figures even if the EV doesn't. Oh, and for the love of the fantasy baseball gods, please don't use Hard% for anything! Stay tuned for more tips on how to leverage sabermetrics in your fantasy analysis!

More Sabermetrics & Statcast for Fantasy Baseball




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Scratched on Monday
Matthew Stafford

Expected to Start in Week 1
Edward Cabrera

Heading to Injured List With Elbow Sprain
Najee Harris

Cleared for Contact, Could Play in Week 1
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Harry Ford

Called Up for Major-League Debut
Victor Scott II

Activated From Injured List
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Dealing With Hamstring Tightness, Expects to Play Monday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Agrees to a One-Year Contract with Milwaukee
Kyrie Irving

"Healing Up Great"
Dante Exum

Mavs Agree on a One-Year Deal
Jaylen Warren

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Steelers
De'Von Achane

Practicing Monday, on Track to Play in Week 1
Quinshon Judkins

Could Report to Browns This Week
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs, Trent McDuffie Not Expected to Finalize Extension
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Dameon Pierce

Ahead of Schedule, Ready for Season
Jordan Love

May Wear Thumb Brace During Season
Chicago Bears

Bears Head Coach Admits Offense Could Face Learning Curve
Matt Chapman

Leaves Early on Sunday, Expects to Play Monday
A.J. Brown

Says He'll Be Active For Season Opener
Luis Garcia

to Make Season Debut on Monday
Max Scherzer

Exits Due to Back Tightness
Taylor Ward

Exits Early After Collison
Braelon Allen

Says He Has a Lot Left to Prove
Sal Stewart

Reds Promoting Sal Stewart to Majors
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Randy Rodríguez

Randy Rodriguez to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic to Miss the Rest of EuroBasket
Denny Hamlin

Picking Up Where He Left Off At Darlington
Kyle Larson

The Sky Is The Limit for Kyle Larson at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

a Strong DFS Play at Darlington This Weekend
Tyler Reddick

Shouldn't Be Overlooked at Darlington This Weekend
Alex Bowman

An Easy Place-Differential Play in DFS This Weekend
Ty Gibbs

Could Be Strong at Darlington This Weekend
Erik Jones

Has Best Darlington Qualifying Effort Since Last Win
Zane Smith

Hopeful For Another Solid Run At Darlington
Aroldis Chapman

Agrees to Contract Extension
Juan Soto

Homers Twice in Loss
Nick Kurtz

Avoids Serious Injury
MacKenzie Gore

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Reaches 25-Homer, 25-Steal Milestone
Chris Sale

Activated on Saturday
Dansby Swanson

Homers Twice, Drives in Six in Win
Nick Kurtz

Leaves Game With Oblique Soreness
Joe Burrow

Bengals Feel Joe Burrow Just had "the Best Training Camp of his Career"
Randy Rodríguez

Tommy John Surgery Recommended for Randy Rodriguez
Corey Seager

Placed on Injured List
Dallas Mavericks

Olivier-Maxence Prosper Waived by the Mavs
Lauri Markkanen

Dominant in Win Over Great Britain
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Leads Serbia to a Win
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Shines Versus Portugal
De'Von Achane

Should be Ready for Week 1
Jose Alvarado

"Good" After Recent Fall
Green Bay Packers

Packers Acquire Micah Parsons, Sign him to Four-Year Extension
Jauan Jennings

Remains Sidelined at Practice
Chris Godwin

to Miss First Month of Season, Possibly More
Quinshon Judkins

Not Considering Return to College
A.J. Brown

Returns to Practice, Expected to Play in Week 1
Jaylen Wright

Undergoes Surgery, Could be Back "Septemberish"
Tyreek Hill

on Track to Play in Week 1
Kyren Williams

to See Reduced Workload?
Lauri Markkanen

Torches Sweden
Neemias Queta

Dominates in EuroBasket Opener
Kawhi Leonard

Clippers Not Allowing Kawhi Leonard to Play Back-to-Backs
Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks Looking to Trade Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Tyrese Haliburton

Expects to Return in 15 Months
Terance Mann

Confident About Having a Big Year in Brooklyn
Zaccharie Risacher

Aims to Improve Ball-Handling Skills
NBA

Pistons And Timberwolves Join Race for Malik Beasley
John Tonje

Signs Two-Way Deal With Jazz
Max Strus

to Miss 3-4 Months After Surgery

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP