X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Lineup Slots: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

You may be wondering why there aren't any advanced stats aimed at predicting a player's counting stats like runs and RBI. The answer is simple: modern sabermetrics reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in ascertaining a given player's real value.

That might work for statheads, but fantasy managers frequently see 40% or more of a player's value tied to his RBI and run totals. We have to care about them. Drafting hitters from strong offenses can help pad the totals, but as you'll see, an even bigger advantage can be found by looking at a player's slot in the batting order.

Don't believe it? Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber slugged 46 HR in a lineup good enough to reach the World Series last year but managed only 94 RBI since he generally led off (123 games) or hit sixth (17 games). Here is a closer look at how to analyze a batter's lineup slot for fantasy purposes.

Featured Promo: Get your 2023 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our preseason Draft Kit, #1 accuracy rankings, #1 ATC projections, Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Lineup Slot & Counting Stats

In the table below, each batting order slot's PA, Runs, and RBI are presented from the 2022 season. The final number is simply R + RBI, an approximate measure of that slot's overall value to a fantasy team.

Slot PA R RBI RBI+R
1st 22,274 2,921 2,063 4,984
2nd 21,734 2,802 2,412 5,214
3rd 21,267 2,544 2,692 5,236
4th 20,803 2,342 2,676 5,018
5th 20,308 2,181 2,412 4,593
6th 19,793 2,091 2,061 4,152
7th 19,222 1,998 1,934 3,932
8th 18,360 2,009 1,885 3,894
9th 18,017 1,929 1,753 3,682

Each batting order slot loses around 500 PA compared to the slot before it. If we divide this total by the 30 current MLB clubs, we get a difference of around 17 PA between consecutive hitters on one team. That may seem insignificant, but it compounds. For example, there is an average of 34 PA separating a team's leadoff man from the three-hitter. Counting stats like Runs and RBI requires an opportunity to accumulate, and hitters earlier in the batting order have more opportunities.

RBI is highest from the 3 and 4 spots, and trends downward in both directions from there. Leadoff hitters only get more RBI than the guys at the bottom of the order despite the largest PA total. This is because they never have runners on base before their first PA of the game, and need to rely on the weaker eighth and ninth hitters to get on in front of them after that. Since good hitters are usually clustered early in the order to maximize their PAs, leadoff men get minimal help from their teammates in producing RBI.

Runs peak at the leadoff slot and mostly decrease from there. This decrease is not linear, as 258 separate second and third while only 93 separate sixth and seventh. For this reason, fantasy managers want to stick to the early batting order slots where teams cluster their best hitters if possible. Leadoff guys have the most opportunity and the team's best hitters hitting behind them, so they score a lot of runs for the same reason they do not register many RBI.

Finally, the R+RBI column refutes the idea that a team's heart of the order is 3-4-5. It is actually 2-3-4, the only lineup slots to eclipse 5,000 combined R+RBI. The first slot is great for runs scored, and the fifth spot offers a respectable 4,593 R+RBI. After that, production falls off a cliff even among strong offenses.

This means that a player in the middle of a weaker offense is likely to outproduce a player on the periphery of a stronger one. Platoons, injuries, and lineup shuffling can change these numbers, but in general, the earlier the slot, the better for fantasy purposes.

 

Conclusion

To conclude, counting stat production depends on opportunity and team support. Players that bat early in the order tend to get more of both, though leadoff men give up RBI potential for increased runs scored. If you would like to learn more about how to apply sabermetrics within a fantasy context, stay tuned!




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Marc-Andre Fleury3 hours ago

Takes Loss Against Flyers
Matthew Boldy3 hours ago

Scores Twice Against Flyers
Bryce Young3 hours ago

Impresses At Pro Day
Eddy Piñeiro3 hours ago

Panthers Re-Sign Eddy Pineiro To Two-Year Deal
Tony Jones Jr.3 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Broncos
Alex Cobb4 hours ago

Might Not Be Ready For Opening Day
Franz Wagner5 hours ago

Won't Return On Thursday
Bradley Beal5 hours ago

Won't Suit Up On Friday
Tyrese Haliburton5 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Friday
Eric Gordon5 hours ago

Gets Starting Nod On Thursday
Kelly Oubre5 hours ago

Jr. Won't Return On Thursday
Deandre Ayton5 hours ago

To Miss Next Two Games
Terry Rozier5 hours ago

Doubtful To Return On Thursday
Mychal Givens5 hours ago

Resumes Throwing
Josh Winckowski5 hours ago

To Begin Season In Bullpen
Drey Jameson6 hours ago

Roughed Up On Thursday
Michael Soroka6 hours ago

Optioned To Minors
Drew Rucinski6 hours ago

Resumes Throwing
Daniel Lynch6 hours ago

Removed Early On Thursday
Rhys Hoskins6 hours ago

Tears ACL
Spencer Steer7 hours ago

Expected To Be Reds Opening Day 3B
Will Brennan7 hours ago

Standing Out This Spring
Brice Turang7 hours ago

Impressing This Spring
Jared Shuster7 hours ago

Having Torrid Spring
Logan O'Hoppe7 hours ago

Could Make Angels Opening Day Roster
Mitchell Robinson7 hours ago

To Play On Thursday
Jalen Brunson7 hours ago

Officially Out For Thursday
LeBron James8 hours ago

Begins On-Court Activity
Jalen Brunson8 hours ago

Uncertain For Thursday
Jalen Duren8 hours ago

Removed From Injury Report
Esteban Quiroz9 hours ago

Phillies Acquire Esteban Quiroz From Cubs
Kyle Tucker9 hours ago

Expects To Be Ready For Opening Day
Will Levis9 hours ago

Meeting With Panthers Thursday
Ryan Succop9 hours ago

Buccaneers Release Ryan Succop
Ezekiel Elliott9 hours ago

Narrows His List Down To Three Teams
Hunter Brown9 hours ago

Still Not Throwing
Brandon Nimmo9 hours ago

Triples In Minor-League Game
Jared Spurgeon9 hours ago

Returns From Illness Thursday
Anthony Duclair9 hours ago

Available Again Thursday
Jason Heyward9 hours ago

Officially On Opening Day Roster
Ville Husso9 hours ago

Out With A Lower-Body Injury
Jimmy Nelson9 hours ago

To Open Year On Injured List
Tom Murphy10 hours ago

Back In Lineup
Darcy Kuemper10 hours ago

Back In Capitals Crease Thursday
Jarred Kelenic10 hours ago

Back In Lineup
John Carlson10 hours ago

Set To Return Thursday
Josh Anderson10 hours ago

Out On Thursday
Oliver Ekman-Larsson10 hours ago

Not Expected To Return This Season
Lukas Dostal11 hours ago

In Goal Thursday For Anaheim
Logan Thompson11 hours ago

Starting Thursday Against Flames
Joel Hofer11 hours ago

Guards Cage Against Detroit
Scottie Barnes11 hours ago

Could Be Out Again Friday
Jeremy Swayman11 hours ago

Confirmed Starting Goalie Thursday
Precious Achiuwa11 hours ago

Regarded As Questionable For Friday
Jake Allen11 hours ago

Between The Pipes Against Boston
Gary Trent12 hours ago

Jr. Questionable For Friday
Tommy Sweeney12 hours ago

Giants Signing Tommy Sweeney
Marc-Andre Fleury12 hours ago

Protects Crease Thursday
Norman Powell12 hours ago

Misses A Ninth Consecutive Game
Zay Flowers12 hours ago

To Meet With Saints, Giants
Bryce Young12 hours ago

Meets With Raiders
Mark Williams12 hours ago

Remains Out On Thursday
DeAndre Hopkins12 hours ago

Bills Headline Trade Market For DeAndre Hopkins
Ty Johnson12 hours ago

Jets Bring Back Ty Johnson
Mitchell Robinson12 hours ago

Questionable For Thursday
KJ Hamler12 hours ago

To Miss 4-6 Months With Torn Pec
Jamison Crowder12 hours ago

Giants Agree To Terms With Jamison Crowder
Mecole Hardman13 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
San Francisco 49ers14 hours ago

49ers Sign Austin Bryant To One-Year Deal
Maycee Barber14 hours ago

Can Continue Her Flyweight Ascent
Andrea Lee14 hours ago

In Need Of Victory To Keep Momentum Going
Detroit Lions14 hours ago

Jalen Reeves-Maybin Returns To Lions
Damien Harris14 hours ago

James Cook, Damien Harris To Share Backfield
MMA14 hours ago

Manel Kape On The Hunt For Fourth Straight Victory Saturday
Tony Pollard14 hours ago

Signs Franchise Tag
Alex Perez14 hours ago

Seeking First Victory Since 2020
Cincinnati Bengals14 hours ago

Bengals Have Had Trade Talks Centered Around Jonah Williams
Albert Duraev14 hours ago

Can Rebound With A Victory
C.J. Ham14 hours ago

Vikings Give C.J. Ham A Two-Year Extension
Chidi Njokuani14 hours ago

Hopes To Get Back In Win Column
Odell Beckham Jr.14 hours ago

Jets Interest In Odell Beckham Jr. "Very Real"
Nikola Jokic15 hours ago

Leads Nuggets To 14-Point Win
Pascal Siakam16 hours ago

Leads All Scorers In Losing Effort
Jaren Jackson16 hours ago

Jr. Scores Season-High 37 Points In Win
J.T. Compher16 hours ago

Grabs Two Points Against Pittsburgh
Sidney Crosby17 hours ago

Makes History By Reaching 30 Goals
Jeff Carter17 hours ago

Pots Two Goals In Victory Over Colorado
Nick Schmaltz17 hours ago

Posts Two Assists Wednesday
Clayton Keller17 hours ago

Stays Hot With Two Goals
Leon Draisaitl17 hours ago

Hands Out Four Assists
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

A Hard Fade In Austin
Sam Burns2 days ago

Hard To Trust At WGC Dell Match Play
Max Homa2 days ago

A Strong Contender In Austin
Tom Hoge3 days ago

A Bracket-Buster In Match Play
Hideki Matsuyama3 days ago

Doesn't Perform In Match Play
Kamaru Usman3 days ago

Unsuccessful In Bid To Recapture Title
Leon Edwards3 days ago

Defends Crown At UFC 286
Viktor Hovland3 days ago

Has Struggled In Match Play
Rafael Fiziev3 days ago

Has Strong Showing But Takes Loss
Justin Gaethje3 days ago

Puts On Another Highlight-Reel Performance
Tyrrell Hatton3 days ago

The Favorite In His Group
Bryan Barberena3 days ago

Suffers Second Straight Submission Loss
Gunnar Nelson3 days ago

Scores Impressive Finish At UFC 286
Will Zalatoris3 days ago

Needs Birdies At WGC Match Play
Jordan Spieth3 days ago

Can Advance At WGC Match Play
Matt Fitzpatrick3 days ago

May Struggle At WGC Match Play
Chris Kirk3 days ago

Draws A Bit Unlucky At WGC Match Play
Patrick Cantlay3 days ago

Has Good Chance At WGC Match Play
Brian Harman3 days ago

Has Putter's Chance To Contend At WGC
Tommy Fleetwood3 days ago

Has Challenge At WGC Match Play
Casey O'Neill4 days ago

Takes First Defeat Against Former Champion
Jennifer Maia4 days ago

Earns Decision Win Over Undefeated Opponent
Roman Dolidze4 days ago

Suffers Setback With Decision Loss
Marvin Vettori4 days ago

Picks Up Decision Win
Kyle Busch4 days ago

Finishes In Top 10 At Atlanta
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Finishes Strong In Atlanta
Erik Jones4 days ago

Gets His First Top-10 Finish Of The Season
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Bounces Back From Speeding Penalty
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Has A Strong Showing
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Hangs in For Fifth Place At Atlanta
Corey Lajoie4 days ago

Corey LaJoie Uses Course To Advantage On Sunday
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Ends Up With Another Top Five Result
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Brad Keselowski Noses Christopher Bell Out For Second
Joey Logano4 days ago

Goes From Pole To Win Sunday
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Starts 23rd
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Starts 24th At The AmBetter Health 400
AJ Allmendinger5 days ago

Eyes Another Strong Finish
NASCAR5 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Eyes Back-To-Back Superspeedway Wins
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

May Be Overlooked
Erik Jones5 days ago

Is A Value Play At Atlanta
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Seeks Better Results
Noah Gragson5 days ago

Might Surprise At Atlanta Motor Speedway
Austin Dillon5 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Atlanta
Ty Dillon5 days ago

Hoping To Keep Car Running At Atlanta
NASCAR5 days ago

J.J. Yeley Starts 34th Sunday At Ambetter Health 400
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF