Champ or Chump: Nick Kurtz and Sandy Alcantara Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

April 29, 2025

Are Nick Kurtz and Sandy Alcantara fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball values.

Fantasy managers need diverse skill sets to succeed in today's game. Top prospects can make a huge fantasy impact, but even mediocre names are frequently hyped up, and prospect lists don't emphasize the same need for immediate gratification that fantasy managers do. Is Nick Kurtz worthy of a roster spot?

Figuring out when to cut bait on a struggling veteran can be just as challenging. It's still only April, but replacements might be more readily available now than in June. Should we pull the plug on Sandy Alcantara, or will he recapture his former glory?

Let's take a deep dive into the fantasy viability of these two hot names!

Nick Kurtz (1B, Athletics)

41% rostered

Kurtz is hitting .250/.235/.250 in 17 PA since making his big league debut, which is obviously way too small a sample to draw conclusions from. Kurtz was the fourth overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, giving him enough prospect pedigree to dream on. Unfortunately, his first stint in the majors will likely be short.

Scouts rave about Kurtz's power potential and all-fields approach, as evidenced by the FanGraphs and MiLB.com scouting reports below:

The FanGraphs scouting report is more illuminating for fantasy purposes because it differentiates between a player's current grade (the first number) and what it's expected to become in the future (the second). Both reports see Kurtz as a plus-power, plus-hit guy with plus defense at 1B who can't run.

However, Kurtz has 35 grades on his present-day hit and game power in the FanGraphs report, suggesting he needs some polish to reach that level. The write-ups also praise Kurtz's plate discipline, even though it isn't included in the traditional five tools.

Kurtz hasn't had a chance to get that polish yet, and it shows in his numbers. He received 50 plate appearances last season, split between two levels, giving us two sample sizes too small to work with.

Kurtz started the 2025 season with Triple-A (Las Vegas) and crushed the ball, slashing .321/.385/.655 with seven homers in 97 PA. His 25 percent chase rate and 10.3 percent walk rate suggested his plate discipline was as advertised, though his 26.8 percent strikeout rate, despite a 12.6 percent swinging-strike rate, also suggested some passivity at the plate.

We shouldn't take Kurtz's line at face value, either. The Pacific Coast League is notoriously hitter-friendly, and Las Vegas is among the biggest offenders. Kurtz's .377 BABIP and 33.3 percent HR/FB are at least as much a product of his environment as his skills, especially with fewer than 100 PA to work with.

The performance earned Kurtz an MLB opportunity, but his skills haven't translated. His 41.2 percent strikeout rate would be alarming under any circumstances, and he hasn't walked yet.  Worse, his 34.6 percent chase rate as a major leaguer is pedestrian, while his 25 percent swinging-strike rate is rooted in a 61.9 percent zone-contact rate.

His overall line is being propped up by a .400 BABIP that won't last.

The sample is tiny, but the 22-year-old with 32 MiLB games in his career looks overmatched right now. He's swinging at pitches he shouldn't, whiffing on offerings in the zone, and trying to do too much too fast.

The Athletics haven't trusted Kurtz with an important lineup role, hitting him seventh or eighth in every game. That limits his counting stat upside, even if he performs well.

Furthermore, you can easily argue that the Athletics are better in 2025 without Kurtz on their roster. His presence forced previous first baseman Tyler Soderstrom into left field. Soderstrom was already stretched defensively at first, so moving him to the outfield has disaster written all over it.

Soderstrom's move to left field also pushed Miguel Andujar to the bench. That may not sound bad, but Andujar is hitting .307/.346/.440 with two homers in 81 PA. Other potential solutions include giving Soderstrom time at catcher or using Brent Rooker in the outfield, neither of which seems to appeal much to the Athletics.

Considering the awkward roster fit, Kurtz has to produce or he'll find himself back in Las Vegas. He isn't hitting, doesn't have an important role, and probably could benefit from additional minor league seasoning. That sounds like a Chump in redraft leagues, though Kurtz offers legitimate long-term upside.

Sandy Alcantara (SP, Miami Marlins)

84% rostered

Alcantara has struggled thus far in 2025, going 2-2 with a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 IP. His ERA estimators are a little better with a 4.82 xERA and 4.21 xFIP, but still far short of what fantasy managers expected from the 2022 NL Cy Young winner. Maybe his ERA will regress, and he'll eventually be traded to a contender?

Don't count on it. Alcantara has a five percent K-BB rate (17 percent strikeout rate, 12 percent walk rate) that isn't MLB-caliber. Additionally, all of his pitches have lost efficacy relative to 2023. His sinker's swinging-strike rate is down from 5.3 percent to 3.8 percent. His change went from a 44.3 percent chase rate to 32.1 percent. His fastball fell from a 14.2 percent swinging-strike rate to 6.5 percent, and his slider from 16.8 percent to 11.4 percent.

Alcantara's stuff is mostly unchanged by Stuff+, as his 109 nearly matches his 110 from 2023 and his career average. However, his Location+ is way down at 93, compared to 105 in 2023 and 104 over his career. This makes sense, as command and control are often the last things to return following Tommy John surgery, if they ever do.

Alcantara probably won't magically get back where he was overnight.

You could hope for positive regression based on his ERA estimators, but Alcantara's Statcast metrics suggest he's been lucky to date. He hasn't deserved his .235 BABIP considering his .270 xBA is way higher than his .218 batting average against, and his slugging numbers tell a similar story (.345 SLG vs. .464 xSLG). Regression is likely, but won't be kind.

Alcantara also has a terrible team context. loanDepot park is a good place to pitch, but the team cannot score or hold leads. The Fish also play in a brutal division, so it'll probably be a long season in Miami.

All of this may sound like a lot of doom and gloom for a guy with a Cy Young on his mantle. It is still April, and you shouldn't abandon your studs this early in the year. That brings us to a question that may seem blasphemous: Was Alcantara ever a true fantasy ace?

His 2022 was great, but Alcantara only has two seasons where his xERA, FIP, and xFIP were below 3.50, and 2021 only barely qualifies. What constitutes a fantasy ace is nebulous, but 3.50 doesn't seem like an unreasonably high bar.

Alcantara has a career 21.3 percent strikeout rate, so he's never been elite on a per-inning basis. His strikeouts are down, but wouldn't move the needle in fantasy even if they returned, since he was never a strikeout machine. Instead, Alcantara derived fantasy value with sparkling ratios unsupported by his ERA estimators and a large workload.

Alcantara is averaging less than five innings per start in 2025, so he isn't piling up 200+ innings this year. Nobody would want this version of Alcantara in a playoff series, which means Miami will probably struggle to get their asking price in trade.

That probably means he remains a Marlin. Alternatively, a trade to a team like the Yankees would force him to deal with a hitter's park with diminished command.

Nearly any pitcher is streamable in the right matchup, but you'd be insane to start Alcantara against the Dodgers tonight. After that, his next start is tentatively scheduled for May 5 against the Dodgers again. Yikes!

Outside of one phenomenal year, Alcantara has never lived up to his reputation in fantasy. His control and command are clearly works in progress, harming his WHIP while nullifying his ability to work deep into games. His strikeout stuff is diminished, and it never was that high, to begin with, and his upcoming schedule is daunting.

Why is this Chump still rostered in 84 percent of leagues?

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