Champ or Chump: Dennis Santana, Jonathan India, Clay Holmes Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

April 8, 2025

Are Dennis Santana, Jonathan India, and Clay Holmes fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball values.

We've reached the second week of the 2025 MLB season, and as expected, Rafael Devers is not the worst player in the league. Players have twice as many games played (or more) than they did this time last week, but we're still working with tiny samples. You shouldn't blindly overreact to this season's stat lines.

However, trends are emerging that fantasy managers should consider. Most teams have established their lineups, and bullpen usage provides insight into who will get ninth-inning opportunities.

Three of the more intriguing names right now are Dennis Santana, Jonathan India, and Clay Holmes. Let's take a closer look at what they'll offer in fantasy!

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Dennis Santana (RP, Pittsburgh Pirates)

19% Rostered

With David Bednar optioned to Triple-A and Colin Holderman landing on the IL with a right knee sprain, Santana became the fantasy community's consensus choice for saves in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, there are two problems with this assumption. First, the Pirates didn't use Santana as a closer in his first appearance after Holderman went down. Second, Santana is bad.

Santana was summoned to face the top of the Yankees order on April 6, giving Ryan Borucki the save chance. Borucki blew it, but it seems that Pittsburgh sees Santana as more of a relief ace than a traditional closer. He'll still get the ninth sometimes, but even 60 percent of Pirates save chances aren't worth a roster spot in most leagues.

Relief aces usually bolster their fantasy value with outstanding ratios and strikeout totals, but the 29-year-old Santana isn't doing that. His career 21.9 percent K% and 10.6 percent BB% don't scream "high-leverage reliever!".

His 3.38 ERA in five 1/3 innings pitched doesn't look terrible, but his 13.6 percent K% and 13.6 percent BB% are atrocious. His 5.66 xFIP and 7.23 xERA reveal just how lucky Santana has been so far.

Furthermore, Santana is a stopgap at best. Bednar is probably Pittsburgh's preferred option, if only to flip him at the deadline. Holderman has over a strikeout per inning in his career, giving him a more traditional closer's arsenal. We don't know how bad his injury is yet, but he will likely become the guy when healthy.

Santana is a bad reliever on a bad team with minimal job security if he has the job at all. If you need saves, avoid this Chump and look to Seth Halvorsen (21 percent rostered) instead.

Jonathan India (2B/3B, Kansas City Royals)

59% Rostered

India became a villain in some circles for contributing to Cincinnati's infield logjam, but the 2021 Rookie of the Year didn't deserve that. India finds himself entrenched in the Kansas City lineup now and offers more fantasy upside than many realize.

India's strongest trait is his elite plate discipline. His 12.5 percent BB% is higher than his 10 percent K% this season, and he demonstrated similar skills last season with a 12.6 percent BB% and 19.6 percent K%. India's 2024 Baseball Savant profile helps put his plate discipline into context:

India's Chase rate and BB rate were elite, and his swinging-strike rate has improved in 2025 so far (5.3 percent vs. 6.6 percent last season). If you play in an OBP format, India should be universally rostered. India's superlative discipline should help his batting average if you don't.

India hit .248/.357/.392 with 15 homers and 13 steals in 2024, but he deserved a .266 average based on his average exit velocities and launch angles. His 28 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed is high enough to boost his BA too, creating more batting average upside.

Many assumed Kansas City would ruin India's fantasy potential, but Kauffman Stadium is a hitter's park that suppresses homers. Its 108 Statcast hits factor from 2023-2025 is the second-highest for right-handed batters, while Cincinnati ranks 15th with a perfectly neutral 100.

The Royals acquired India to lead off, allowing his strong OBP and batting average to turn into runs scored. He'll also log plenty of PAs, meaning his OBP and average will be more impactful than they would be for a seventh hitter.

He doesn't offer much power or speed, but he'll contribute some. India's career 36.5 percent fly-ball rate and 11.6 percent home run to fly-ball rate are roughly league-average, so a repeat of last season's 15 HR seems doable. Likewise, India went 13-for-15 (87%) on SB attempts last year, and Kansas City likes to run. Somewhere around 15 SB seems right.

Most importantly, the Royals have played India everywhere. He started with second base eligibility and already made five starts at third base, giving him eligibility at both spots, plus corner infield and middle infield in many leagues. If he doesn't have third base eligibility yet in your league, he will soon.

He also has four starts and six appearances in the outfield, further enhancing his flexibility. This Champ will soon have 2B/MI/3B/CI/OF eligibility and should help a lot in OBP/BA and runs while contributing to HR and SB, making him a great bench piece in daily formats.

Clay Holmes (SP/RP, New York Mets)

75% Rostered

Holmes has a 2.89 ERA in nine 1/3 IP, so you might think his conversion to SP is going well. It isn't. His 4.01 xFIP and 4.86 xERA are over a run higher than his ERA, while his 21.7 percent K% and 13 percent BB% are nothing special.

The biggest issue is that Holmes doesn't have a deep enough repertoire to start. In 2024, he was a pure sinker/slider guy, throwing the former 56.5 percent of the time and the latter 43.5 percent. This year, those rates are down to 37.4 percent and 32.2 percent, respectively, making room for a change (13.8 percent) and a cutter (13.2 percent).

The pieces don't fit together. Holmes's sinker is solid with a 7.7 percent swinging-strike rate and 56.9 percent zone rate this season, but his slider fell off a cliff. It has a career 17.8 percent swinging-strike rate but just a 5.4 percent swinging-strike rate so far this year, suggesting it doesn't play off of the new pitches very well.

The new pitches don't make up for it. His change has a 12.5 percent swinging-strike rate but a 41.7 percent zone rate and 35.7 percent chase rate, giving it no obvious use case. Similarly, his cutter has a 4.3 percent swinging-strike rate and a 56.8 percent swinging-strike rate, making it a bad fastball.

Holmes hasn't thrown five innings or 90 pitches in a start yet, and he'll probably have an innings limit after not starting a game since 2018. Given the low volume, he'll struggle to collect wins despite playing for a contending team. Starting on Opening Day also means Holmes will frequently match up with the opposing team's best starter, further hurting his win chances.

Holmes has faced Houston and Miami so far. The Astros have struggled, and Miami might have the weakest offense in the league. The Marlins get a second look at him tonight, and Holmes may not have the weapons to face even a weak lineup twice in rapid succession.

You could stream Holmes against the Marlins, but it's riskier than it might seem. Beyond that, Holmes is a Chump and is more likely to end up as an overpaid middle reliever than an important fantasy asset. He shouldn't be rostered in three-quarters of leagues.

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