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Are Garrett Whitlock, Shelby Miller, and Chase Burns fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value.
Every fantasy manager wants quality pitching, but many overlook potential sources of it. The bidding for top prospect Chase Burns is likely to be intense now that the Reds have announced he's making his MLB debut tonight, and his upside is unreal. However, he lacks experience, and there's no guarantee he performs right away or even gets a second start.
Meanwhile, your waiver wire could be overflowing with quality options. Garrett Whitlock has been outstanding for the Red Sox and is an excellent play in leagues that incentivise relievers in SP slots. Shelby Miller is closing and should offer more job security than you'd expect from a closer on waivers this late into the year.
Let's take a closer look at three pitchers who could make an impact over the rest of 2025!
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Garrett Whitlock (SP/RP, Boston Red Sox)
11% Rostered
Whitlock is 5-0 with a save and a 2.82 ERA over 38 1/3 innings pitched this season. His ERA estimators are solid with a 3.21 xERA and 3.40 xFIP, while his 30.2 percent K% delivers the strikeouts fantasy managers crave.
That K% is no fluke. The 29-year-old has a career-best 15.3 percent SwStr% after eliminating his fastball and cutter in favor of a three-pitch mix: sinker, slider, and changeup.
Sinkers aren't usually great for strikeouts, but Whitlock's has been outstanding with a 12.7 percent SwStr% and 60.4 percent Zone%. Its 25.7 percent GB% isn't what you expect from a sinker, but it's getting Whitlock ahead in the count and putting hitters away occasionally.
Whitlock has two great secondaries to choose from. His slider has a 17.6 percent SwStr% and 40% chase rate with a solid 43.7 percent Zone%, giving him a way to elicit swing-and-miss or steal a strike. If batters make contact, they're only hitting .091/.194/.145, making Whitlock's slider an excellent put-away pitch.
Whitlock's changeup performs similarly with a 17.4 percent SwStr% and 40.4 percent chase rate, though its 34.7 percent Zone% isn't as high as his slider's. Whitlock gets in trouble if hitters hit his changeup with a triple-slash line of .303/.324/.394, but it's still a great secondary that prevents batters from looking for the slider.
Whitlock has started and relieved throughout his career, but he posted a 27.2 percent K% with a 1.96 ERA in his rookie season of 2021, the only other season he didn't appear as a starter. We don't have much data on Whitlock, the full-time reliever, but what we do have suggests an effective option.
Whitlock is locked in as Boston's top set-up guy behind Aroldis Chapman, and there are two pathways to adding saves to his fantasy profile. First, the team could use the left-handed Chapman against lefties, freeing up saves for Whitlock if the big opposing lefties come up in the seventh or eighth. Alternatively, Boston could trade Chapman at the deadline.
Boston's position in the standings doesn't scream, "SELL!" but that didn't stop them from trading Rafael Devers. If a franchise icon who signed a long-term extension is available, a journeyman closer could certainly be on the move, too.
You can probably wait a couple of weeks before speculating on a Chapman trade, but Whitlock's best fantasy use case is in leagues that count holds. If you have a limited number of RP slots, rostering Whitlock allows you to run an extra arm, accumulating them. That's a substantial competitive advantage in the category, and Whitlock is by far the best SP-eligible reliever right now.
Whether you're speculating on saves or searching for holds, Whitlock is a Champ who should be rostered in more leagues.
Shelby Miller (RP, Arizona Diamondbacks)
36% Rostered
Most fantasy managers know Shelby Miller as a middling starter, but the 34-year-old has reinvented himself as a late-inning reliever. He's 3-2 with eight saves and a 2.03 ERA in 31 IP. Miller's 3.86 xERA and 3.64 xFIP suggest some ERA regression is forthcoming, but he should remain a worthwhile fantasy asset for the rest of the year.
Miller has a 27.8 percent K% and 8.7 percent BB% this season, suggesting solid underlying skills. A velocity spike and a pitch mix change support the performance.
Miller's fastball is averaging 95.1 mph after just 93.5 in 2024, and the extra velo is dramatically improving it. Its 14.8 percent SwStr% is nothing short of elite, while its 60.8 percent Zone% sets up the rest of Miller's arsenal.
Miller is also throwing more splitters (18.8 percent to 28 percent) at the expense of his slider (20.4 percent to 7.7 percent) this year, and it's a positive change. His slider has an 8.1 percent SwStr%, 48.6 percent Zone%, and 15.8 percent chase rate that don't move the needle for our purposes.
Meanwhile, his split boasts a superlative 20.7 percent SwStr% and a 44.1 percent chase rate, which renders its 31.1 percent Zone% moot. Relievers need a good fastball and an elite secondary, and Miller offers both.
Miller's job security should be high as well. A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez were co-closers for the Diamondbacks coming into the year, but they're both out for the year after Tommy John surgery. Arizona's remaining set-up options are simply not ninth-inning material.
Jalen Beeks has a 22.6 percent K% and a career ERA of 4.27. He's also left-handed, incentivising the D-backs to save him for opposing lefties rather than the ninth inning.
Ryan Thompson has a 4.97 ERA and a 21.4 percent K% this season, and his career 8.0 percent K-BB% against left-handed batters suggests he's best deployed as a righty specialist.
At 39-38, Arizona shouldn't be motivated to buy a more established closer or sell from their MLB roster. The team should remain strong enough to produce a reasonable number of save chances while trusting Miller to convert them.
A full-time closer on a decent team should be rostered in more than 36 percent of leagues, making Miller a Champ.
Chase Burns (SP, Cincinnati Reds)
42% Rostered
Burns was selected second overall in the draft last season, and scouts see great potential in the 22-year-old. Check out his FanGraphs scouting report:
Burns's fastball touches triple digits, and he complements it with two MLB-caliber breaking pitches. His changeup gives him a fourth pitch to keep hitters off-balance, and his write-up compares his pitch sequencing to prime Justin Verlander. The only downside is that his fastball is relatively flat despite its velocity, making it hittable if it isn't located well.
His MiLB scouting report is similar:
This one is slightly higher on his curve and change but slightly lower on his fastball. The net result is similar, though the write-up again mentions that his fastball is hittable in the middle of the zone and below.
It's tough for the second overall pick's stock to improve in his first professional season, but Burns dominated on the farm this year. He posted a 1.29 ERA and 1.72 xFIP over 42 IP for Double-A (Chattanooga) with a 36.4 percent K% and 2.6 percent BB%. His 17.1 percent SwStr% was sensational, giving the Reds no choice but to promote him to Triple-A (Louisville).
He only made two starts in Louisville, and he posted a 2.19 ERA and 3.05 xFIP in 12 1/3 IP. He was slightly less dominant with a 30.4 percent K% and 15.5 percent SwStr%, and his BB% increased to 8.7 percent. Still, he was as good as could've been expected.
Burns may have succeeded on the farm, but he has little experience at the highest level. His hittable fastball may produce gopheritis against advanced hitters, and Great American Ball Park's Statcast HR factor of 128 is the highest in baseball. That could hurt his ERA.
Moreover, the Reds aren't giving him a soft landing spot. The Yankees have been slumping lately, but underestimating the Bronx Bombers is a terrible fantasy strategy. Burns may not make another start, but his slot lines up in Boston on June 30, which wouldn't be an easy assignment either.
Burns's upside is too high not to speculate on, but his success isn't guaranteed. His heater is widely expected to play down despite excellent velocity, his home park won't help him, and his opponents aren't a cakewalk. Let's call him a Champ with the caveat that he might not be for you if you're trying to protect ratios.
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