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Kevin gives you his surprise fantasy baseball breakouts. His biggest surprises at every position in Fantasy Baseball for the 2025 season, including Nick Pivetta, Pete Crow-Armstrong, George Springer, more.
The 2025 fantasy baseball season is in the books, so it's time to look back on some of the biggest surprise stars and performances.
These aren't just the players who provided the greatest value surplus compared to their draft cost. These are the players that, as I was looking back on their season, really made me do the Shaq meme- "I owe you an apology. I wasn't really familiar with your game."
Did you have any of these players on your team in 2025? Can we expect them to repeat these performances in 2026?
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Catcher: Cal Raleigh
Starting off with a layup here. I don't think anyone could've predicted the season Cal Raleigh had this year. The most HRs by a catcher in a season. The most HRs by a switch-hitter in a season. The Big Dumper had an incredible 60 HRs and has given Aaron Judge a serious challenge for AL MVP.
CAL RALEIGH'S 60TH HOMER OF THE SEASON GOT OUT IN A HURRY 😱 pic.twitter.com/P47l5L4Pjp
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 25, 2025
This season, Raleigh combined the pulled fly ball approach of Isaac Paredes with very strong quality of contact metrics. He was second in the league in pulled air percentage at 38.4 percent, which was .1 percent lower than Paredes but was over six points higher than third-place Spencer Torkelson at 31.8 percent. He also had a 99th percentile barrel rate and an 85th percentile hard-hit rate.
Raleigh might sneak into the first round of the draft next season. It's just too enticing to pass up that much power from the catcher position (he also chipped in 14 SBs). While I don't think he'll replicate his magical 2025 season, I wonder if he can still hit over 40 HRs but with a better batting average.
Raleigh really sold out for power in the second half as he was chasing Judge's AL HR record and a potential league MVP. He hit .259 in the first half while only hitting .229 in the second half. With a little more balanced approach in 2026, Raleigh can still easily be the C1 even without hitting a record-breaking number of HRs.
HM: Hunter Goodman
First Base: Nick Kurtz
Ok- I'll start with two layups. I was actually really high on Nick Kurtz coming into the season. I wish I had published prospect rankings before his call-up, so I could have actually proven that, but he was at the top of my "Prospects to Stash" article series, along with Roman Anthony, up until his debut.
However, I don't think even those who were his biggest fans as a prospect could've predicted the rookie season he had. The likely AL Rookie of the Year had 36 HRs in only 117 games with a 170 WRC+, which was third in the league amongst players with at least 400 PAs. This also put him in historic company for all-time rookie seasons.
Highest wRC+ by a rookie in Major League history.
(Min 400 PA)1. Joe Jackson (1911) 184
2. Aaron Judge (2017) 174
3. NICK KURTZ (2025) 170 pic.twitter.com/CVxPFANmiB— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) September 29, 2025
I have no questions about Kurtz's power going forward, especially considering he'll be playing half of his games in the band box in West Sacramento. However, I do have some questions about whether he can maintain such a high average. He hit .290 while striking out over 30 percent of the time, which seems unlikely to be replicated.
However, even if his average drops to around .260, his power upside should have him going in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts for years to come.
HM: Josh Naylor's Speed
Second Base: Brice Turang
Brice Turang, being the top second baseman in fantasy this season, was surprising enough, but what made it more surprising was that he accomplished this while only stealing 24 bases. In 2024, Turang stole 50 bases and did... not much else.
In 2025, Turang hit .288 with 18 HRs and a 124 WRC+. All these marks were way higher than what he did in 2024 (.254 BA, seven HRs, 88 WRC+). How did Turang flip the script on his fantasy profile to such a great season? The answer seems to be as simple as he hit the ball harder.
While Turang isn't sporting a savant page as red as some of the top players in fantasy, he went from an icy blue page in 2024 to a mostly light red page in 2025. This is most notable in his jumps in Avg. EV (from 87.0 MPH to 91.1 MPH) and hard-hit rate (from 29.7 percent to 47.4 percent).
I think Turang will probably regress a bit in 2026, but he'll still be a solid hitter, and if he can go back to stealing bases at a higher level, he'll still be an excellent fantasy second baseman.
HM: Jorge Polanco
Third Base: Colson Montgomery
Cheating a little bit here to include both Montgomery and the guy I put at shortstop, considering Montgomery only played 12 games at third base this season.
I must admit, I was completely off on Montgomery as a prospect before his call-up in the middle of this season. I did not include him in my top 100 prospect list. I remember a Redditor asked me about him in one of my posts, and I said I was fully out on him. Well, there's plenty of egg on my face there, as he had a great rookie season after getting called up.
I don't know how a player can go from having an 81 WRC+ across a full season in Triple-A in 2024 and a 79 WRC+ across half a season this year to having a 129 WRC+ in half a season in the majors. It genuinely seems impossible, but Montgomery managed to do it.
Montgomery also struck out a high but palatable 29.2 percent of the time in the majors after striking out 33.0 percent of the time in the minors this season. I'm not sure what black magic the White Sox performed on Montgomery when they sent him back down to the complex before his MLB promotion, but it clearly worked.
Montgomery's 21 HRs made him one of the most prolific power bats in the sport after the All-Star break. In fact, the only players who had more home runs than Montgomery after the All-Star break were Ohtani, Raleigh, Schwarber, and Caminero.
I don't fully believe in the Montgomery breakout. Still, it's hard to ignore the power upside he can provide from the middle infield position (he'll only be SS eligible going into 2026 in most leagues). If he can continue to keep the K's at a reasonable level, he'll be plenty valuable in all leagues.
Colson Montgomery crushes the 21st homer of his rookie campaign! pic.twitter.com/SrtYHFfnkU
— MLB (@MLB) September 27, 2025
HM: Eugenio Suarez
Shortstop: Geraldo Perdomo
WHO was second in the NL in fWAR? That's right- Geraldo Perdomo was second in the NL in fWAR this season (7.1), only behind Shohei Ohtani. And yes- Perdomo will rightfully finish top five in the NL in MVP voting this season. I know fWAR isn't a fantasy stat, but I just had to bring that up when talking about what an incredible season Perdomo had.
When Perdomo was named an All-Star in 2023 after a hot start, I thought he was likelier to be a career utility infielder than to become an All-Star again. In the second half of 2023 and in 2024, that seemed like a reasonable opinion.
When the Diamondbacks signed Perdomo to an extension, I was unsure why they signed this low-upside player to block their top prospect, Jordan Lawlar. In 2025, Perdomo proved all of his doubters (myself included) very wrong.
After back-to-back seasons as a borderline league-average bat, Perdomo had a 138 WRC+ in 2025 with career averages in basically every category. He had 20 HRs and 27 SBs while hitting .290 at the top of the Diamondbacks lineup.
I'm actually very intrigued by how drafters will view Perdomo in 2026. Career years should be taken with a grain of salt, but nothing Perdomo did in 2025 seems too far-fetched. He walked more than he struck out, and his xwOBA of .361 was not much higher than his wOBA of .370 and was in the top 20 percent of the league.
HM: Trevor Story
Outfielder: Pete Crow-Armstrong
When Crow-Armstrong was starting to break out offensively early this season, I was trying to do some rough math on where he'd end up from an fWAR standpoint at each level of offensive production. We knew that he would be one of the best defensive center fielders in the league, so if he was even a league-average hitter, he could probably be a five fWAR player.
Well, he had a 131 WRC+ in the first half of the season, which was putting him neck and neck in the MVP discussion with Ohtani. He fell off quite a bit offensively in the second half with only a 72 WRC+, but his final season stats were still great, especially for fantasy. When you hit 31 HRs with 35 SBs, your fantasy managers are going to be very happy with you, no matter what other noise there is in your profile.
PETE CROW-ARMSTRONG IS THE FIRST CUBS PLAYER IN HISTORY TO HAVE 30 HOME RUNS, 30 STEALS & 30 DOUBLES 🤯
— Cubs Zone (@CubsZone) September 26, 2025
That being said, the noise in his profile isn't great. He's horrible against lefties with a 59 WRC+ against them. He also has a poor approach at the plate, with a second percentile chase rate and a fourth percentile walk rate. Crow-Armstrong is an intriguing player who will likely always be a good real-life player due to his defense. He will provide good power and speed for fantasy, but will likely hover around being a league-average bat for most of his career.
Outfielder: George Springer
I'm not sure any player has beaten my "washed allegations" like George Springer did this season. After his 2024 season, when he hit .220 with a 94 WRC+, I thought for sure that Springer was washed and didn't want anything to do with him in fantasy.
However, the king of Springer Dingers had a career year at the ripe age of 35, with an absurd 166 WRC+, which was third in the league among qualified hitters, only behind Ohtani and Judge. He also hit a career high of .309 with 32 HRs, which was his highest total since 2019.
While I'm unsure if Springer can replicate these heights again as a 36-year-old, his expected stats back up his performance, as he had a 98th or 99th percentile xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA.
I don't think I can write him off again.
Outfielder: Juan Soto's Speed
Juan Soto's 38 stolen bases might be the single most shocking stat from the 2025 MLB season. I suppose that since he secured his massive free agent contract, he has no fear of potentially getting hurt, but I don't think anyone could've predicted that the star slugger would steal that many after his prior career high was only 12.
Can he repeat this thievery in 2026? Honestly- who knows. Soto was in the 13th percentile for sprint speed in 2025, so he wasn't getting steals from his blazing speed. Perhaps the player with the best eye at the plate is also one of the best at reading pitcher movements when looking to steal.
I'd set the over/under for stolen bases for Soto for next season at 20, but his willingness to run makes him an even more elite fantasy option going forward.
HM: Ramon Laureano, Byron Buxton, Kyle Stowers
Starting Pitcher: Trevor Rogers
I owe Trevor Rogers an apology and a thank you. When Stowers was first breaking out this season, I vocally mocked the Orioles for trading him and Connor Norby for Rogers, who was looking like a shell of the player he once was early in the season.
When Rogers started pitching well in the majors, I scooped him up as a streamer in my dynasty league, and he just kept pitching too well for me to send him back to the waiver wire. He was an integral part of my championship because he just cooked every time he was on the mound.
Across 109 2/3 innings this season, Rogers had an absurd 1.81 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. For players in QS leagues, you got 13 QS from Rogers out of his 18 starts this season. He wasn't a dominant strikeout pitcher, but his 24.3 percent K-rate was still very solid, especially paired with his 6.9 percent BB-rate.
Before his rough last start against the Yankees (which hopefully your league was over for), Rogers' run prevention was historic.
Lowest ERA through a pitcher's first 17 starts of a season - MLB's "Live Ball" Era (1920-present):
1.01- Luis Tiant (1968)
1.13- Bob Gibson (1968)
1.20- Al Benton (1945)
1.24- Mort Cooper ('42)
1.27- Gaylord Perry ('74)
1.29- Don Drysdale ('68)
1.35- @Orioles Trevor Rogers (2025) pic.twitter.com/D5iUdtaw53— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) September 20, 2025
I don't fully believe in Rogers for next season, but I wouldn't expect any pitcher to have an ERA and WHIP like he did in 2025. His xFIP was 3.64, and he had an unsustainable .226 BABIP and an 84.2 percent LOB rate. However, if he can have an ERA in the low-to-mid 3's, he'll still be an excellent starter for our fantasy teams next season.
Starting Pitcher: Nick Pivetta
Nick Pivetta has been looked at as a potential breakout pitcher for the last decade, it seems like, and he's never really broken out. That's until this season, where he finally had his breakout season at 32 years old. Before 2025, Pivetta had never had a season with a sub-4.00 ERA or a sub-1.10 WHIP. This season, he had a 2.87 ERA with a .99 WHIP.
Do I believe Pivetta is a better pitcher than he was previously? Perhaps a little, but a lot of his improvement can likely be attributed to pitching half of his games at Petco Park. Petco Park is the second-hardest park to hit by Statcast Park Factor. He also had a career-best BABIP and HR/FB rate (both by wide margins) in his first season in San Diego.
Pivetta should probably experience some regression going into 2026, but as long as he's pitching for the Padres, I think he will still be a very strong pitcher for fantasy purposes.
Starting Pitcher: Bryan Woo's Ability to go Six Innings
Hand up, I gave up Bryan Woo in the middle of last season. I've always liked Woo as a talent, but in the first half of last season, he was constantly coming out of games in the fourth or fifth inning with weird injuries. I was the meme of the guy digging and giving up before he found the gems.
Woo started going deeper into games in the second half, but there were still big question marks about his durability going into 2025. Those questions do not appear to be there anymore.
Woo went at least six innings in his first 25 starts this season, a feat that hasn't been achieved since 2015.
Bryan Woo has gone 6+ innings in 24 consecutive starts this season for the first time since Zack Greinke had 32 consecutive in 2015
(h/t @SNYtv) pic.twitter.com/r9HPzs7eWv
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) August 16, 2025
HM: Nathan Eovaldi, Matthew Boyd, Jacob deGrom (Staying Healthy)
Relief Pitcher: Aroldis Chapman
Who knew that Aroldis Chapman still had this kind of season left in the tank? Once viewed as one of the best closers in baseball, Chapman had looked pretty average for the last half-decade. However, in his first season in Boston, he might have just put together the best season of his career.
Chapman had an absurd 1.17 ERA, supported by strong ERA estimators. He also had a 30.7 percent K-BB rate. Even in his rough recent seasons, he has maintained a strong K-rate, but his control has been inconsistent, with walk rates regularly in the double digits. He dropped it to 6.6 percent this season by using a novel concept: spotting your fastball.
You’re telling me Connor Wong saved Aroldis Chapman’s career??????? @PitchingNinja pic.twitter.com/HyDrBamKEi
— Jake 🤙 (@JakeFrmHateFarm) August 29, 2025
HM: Emilio Pagan
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