Jarod's 7 Early Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions - 2026 Player Outlooks

Jarod Rupp's 7 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2026 MLB season, including predictions for Ben Rice, Chandler Simpson, Emmet Sheehan and more.

The postseason just ended, but it's never too early to start thinking about next season. The winter meetings haven't even started yet, so there are still lots of names who could be in new homes by the time spring training rolls around, perhaps including one of the names below.

While there will be plenty of time for the dust to settle and for pre-draft rankings to be developed, one thing we can do in the meantime is to dream about some individual performances that could come true next season.

Now, these are bold predictions, which, by their nature, are unlikely to come true. However, I'll make the case for each, and even if they don't come fully true, perhaps they can come close. Two of my 2025 predictions came true, so let's see which players have some big upside in 2026.

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1. Ben Rice is a Top 10 First Baseman

Rice got off to a strong start last season, hitting .266 over the first month with eight home runs and a .958 OPS in 26 games. His production tailed off over the next couple of months, only to finish the season strong, posting a .281 average with 12 home runs and an .894 OPS in 60 games after the All-Star break.

All in all, his final stat line was .255-26-65-74-3 with a .358 wOBA and 133 wRC+, finishing as the 19th first baseman in standard leagues for fantasy. But is there room to improve? Enough to put him in the Top 10?

As strong as his .358 wOBA was, the 26-year-old's expected wOBA (xwOBA) was .410! That put him in the 97th percentile in that statistic, along with a 95th percentile average exit velocity, 92nd percentile barrel rate, and 97th percentile hard-hit rate.

The 6-foot-2 slugger even saw both his walk and strikeout rates improve from the first half to the second half, with the walk rate going from 8.9 percent to 10.1 percent and the strikeout rate going from 20.5 percent to 16.7 percent.

Can't hit left-handed pitching, you say? Well, while the left-handed hitter batted just .208 against southpaws in 2025, he hit seven home runs off of them in only 106 at-bats, posting a 104 wRC+ and a .274 ISO, which was better than the .235 ISO he posted against right-handers.

Surely he'll need more than 467 at-bats to slide into the Top 10 at the position, though, right? Well, manager Aaron Boone recently stated to the New York Daily News that he sees the former 12th-round draft pick as the team's primary first baseman next season.

He also said that Rice could still catch, and there's always an opportunity to DH, so more ABs shouldn't be hard to find. Speaking of being able to catch -- with Rice's eligibility at catcher (at least on Yahoo!), he was able to finish as the seventh-ranked catcher for fantasy in '25.

If he ends up as a top 10 first baseman, he could also finish as a top three catcher.

2. Tony Santillan Saves 35 Games for the Reds

Santillan had the most successful and complete season of his career to date in 2025 as he stayed healthy for the entirety of the season, something he hasn't been able to do since he debuted in 2021.

In 2025, the right-hander logged 73 2/3 innings pitched, blowing past his previous career high of 43 1/3 IP. He also posted a career-best 2.44 ERA on the back of a solid 24.9 percent strikeout rate, allowing him to rack up 33 holds and seven saves for Cincinnati.

Tony Santillan's 3Ks in the 8th pic.twitter.com/LmpzcZ6fJQ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 27, 2025

Looking closer, though, that 24.9 percent strikeout rate was depressed by an unimpressive 20.8 percent strikeout rate in the first half of the season. In the second half, it was an exceptional 31.4 percent.

Last season's saves leader for the Reds, Emilio Pagan, is currently a free agent. There's a chance the team will bring him back after a career year; however, he's 34, so it's not a given. But Pagan saved 32 last season, so what is so bold about 35? Only three relievers saved more than 35 games.

The Reds will have to perform well again for this to come to fruition, and I expect they will. The big question mark is health. Will Santillan be able to stay healthy again? Of all of the predictions in this article, this one makes me the most nervous.

What I learned from my Bold Predictions article last year was not to count on players with injury history. Yordan Alvarez, Tyler O'Neill, and Royce Lewis torpedoed three of my predictions.

3. Hurston Waldrep Wins 15 Games

Waldrep was selected in the first round of the 2023 MLB Draft and quickly became one of the Braves' top prospects. The University of Florida product looked good in his eight starts in the minors in 2023, and followed that up with a strong showing in Double and Triple-A in 2024.

His performance, along with multiple injuries to Atlanta's starting rotation, earned him a promotion to the major leagues by June 2024. It did not go as hoped, allowing 13 earned runs on nine hits and eight walks with three strikeouts in seven innings of work.

It's a tiny sample, but one thing stood out -- the walks. Those were something that followed him during his minor league tenure, posting an 11.8 percent walk rate in a total of 214 1/3 innings pitched.

Once he was called up to the majors in 2025, things changed. Waldrep's walk rate dropped to 9.6 percent, which is still higher than average (8.4 percent) but much more palatable. He was also striking out batters at a rate of 24.0 percent, which was better than average (22.2 percent).

So what changed? A quick look at his Baseball Savant page shows he all but scrapped his four-seam fastball (39.8 percent in '24 to 2.6 percent in '25) for a cutter/sinker mix (22.0/18.3 percent in '25).

The 23-year-old credits Sean Murphy for adding those pitches to the mix this year.

Hurston Waldrep gave a lot of the credit for his improvement this season to #Braves catcher Sean Murphy, who urged him to throw a sinker when Murphy was at Triple A on rehab early in the season. It's made a major difference added to his repertoire.

— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) August 9, 2025

It appears to have made his devastating splitter all the more effective, notching a 45.4 percent whiff rate and .150 batting average against it over his nine starts for the Braves in 2025. The splitter is the former first-rounder's most-used pitch, coming in at 32.4 percent usage.

One would think that his 2025 performance should land him a spot in next year's rotation to begin the season, and with Atlanta's lineup presumably healthier heading into the new year, they should pose a formidable threat to opponents once again.

Last year, the Braves had to endure Jurickson Profar's 80-game PED suspension, Ronald Acuna Jr. not returning from his knee injury until late May, Austin Riley's season-ending core surgery at the beginning of August, and, at one point, all five pitchers from the team's Opening Day rotation missing at the same time due to injury.

That will all be behind the team, and with Waldrep's nasty stuff, the right-hander will be in line to make enough starts on a much better team to win 15 games in 2026, something only seven pitchers in all of baseball were able to do this past season.

4. Emmet Sheehan is Top 20 in Strikeouts

From 2021 to 2023, Sheehan boasted an astounding 40.6 percent strikeout rate (K%) in 27 minor league games. It helped him get to the majors for an 11-game debut in 2023, where he posted a solid 25.8 percent K%.

Then, in the spring of 2024, he began to experience elbow pain, which ended up resulting in Tommy John surgery and costing him the entire 2024 season.

The former sixth-round draft pick finally returned in 2025, and in five rehab starts at Triple-A, he struck out batters at a 42.5 percent rate! Granted another shot at the major league level, the 26-year-old did not disappoint.

Over 15 appearances (12 starts), the right-hander posted a 2.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and impressed with a 30.6 percent K%. With 89 strikeouts over 73 1/3 innings pitched, the effort was good for a 10.92 K/9.

Only three starting pitchers met the below four thresholds in 2025:

70+ IP
K-BB above 23%
BAA under .200
FIP under 3.00

Tarik Skubal (Duh)
Paul Skenes (Also Duh)
And...

Emmet Sheehan 👀👀pic.twitter.com/4ojK7XgrtB

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) October 23, 2025

One would think it'd be a strong enough case for a spot in the 2026 rotation; however, with five other likely starters in the mix, the Dodgers would have to go with a six-man rotation.

While a six-man rotation isn't a problem for them, it could limit his innings and fantasy ceiling. With the injury history of Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, it will likely be a five-man rotation at some point anyway, though.

An injury to one of the starters, or if the 6-foot-5 hurler were to be traded this offseason, could take that cap off his ceiling. But even if he were to log only 150 innings pitched in 2026 at a 10.92 K/9, that would extrapolate to 182 strikeouts! That total would get him close to the top 20 based on last season's stats.

The Dodgers would likely still monitor his innings, since he's not far removed from the TJ surgery, but 150 is within the realm of possibility. But what if he got to 160 innings? 194 K. 170 innings? 206 K. That would get him closer to top 10 territory!

Most of the pitchers with the most strikeouts in 2025 totaled 180 innings or more. Sheehan just needs 150 to make this bold prediction a reality, but the more innings he gets, the less bold it will become.

5. Chandler Simpson Steals 75 Bases

Simpson was drafted in 2022 and stole 94 bases in his first full professional season in 2023. He outdid himself in 2024, swiping 104 bags (in five fewer games played than the year before).

The speedster made his major league debut by mid-April this year, but only managed to steal 44 bases. The reason? He was sent down to Triple-A at the end of May. However, it wasn't due to underperformance, as he was batting .285 with a minuscule 10.5 percent strikeout rate (the league average is ~22 percent).

He finally returned in late June and hit .299 the rest of the way. All in all, he hit .295 with a 9.8 percent strikeout rate in 109 games for the Rays. With 44 steals in 441 plate appearances, that works out to a .10 SB/PA.

The low strikeout rate is nothing new, as the Georgia Tech product owns a career 8.8 percent strikeout rate in the minors (which was lower than his 9.4 percent walk rate), so expect him to continue to put the bat on the ball.

Assuming the 24-year-old can begin 2026 as the club's starting center fielder, logging at least 650 plate appearances is well within the realm of possibility. There's no need to worry about a platoon, as the left-handed slugger hit .299 against LHP and .293 versus RHP in 2025.

Acuna stole 73 bases in 2023 in 735 PA (.10 SB/PA). 2024 saw Elly De La Cruz swipe 67 bags in 696 PA (.10 SB/PA). Last year's stolen base leader, Jose Caballero, stole 49 bases in just 370 PA (.13 SB/PA). Simpson is faster than all of them and can obviously hit for average.

He is speed.

Throwing it back to when Chandler Simpson beat out a grounder TO THE FIRST BASEMAN pic.twitter.com/fqD58tNIqI

— Durham Bulls (@DurhamBulls) October 7, 2025

While he won't contribute any home runs (literally probably zero) or many RBI, he could give managers a clear advantage in steals (especially if the next closest steals just 49 like last season) while providing plenty of runs scored and batting average support.

Hopefully, his walk rate can improve in 2026 (4.5 percent BB% in the majors, ~8 percent is average), which should help him get on base even more, but even if it doesn't, his .10 SB/PA with 650 PA should get him within range of the 75-steal threshold, and possibly more.

6. Charlie Condon Belts 30-Plus Home Runs

Condon was selected as the third overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft and was ready to play his first full season of professional baseball in 2025 before suffering a broken wrist in spring training. The injury delayed the start to his season until early May and dampened his chances for a 2025 MLB debut.

The University of Georgia product showed well in 35 games at High-A, where he slashed .312/.431/.420 with three home runs and a strong 15.6 percent walk rate (21.0 percent strikeout rate). He hit a solid .262 in 47 games at Double-A before a 3-for-32 slump to end the year, dropping his average to .235.

Still, the 6-foot-6 slugger's best trait was evident, slugging .465 with 11 home runs during his time at Double-A. A 28.3 percent strikeout rate at Hartford could mean he returns there to start 2026, but the former first-rounder could also begin at Triple-A or even make the big league club with a strong spring.

After all, the team sent him to the desert for some additional seasoning in the Arizona Fall League (AFL), and he acquitted himself well. The 22-year-old slashed .337/.439/.434 for the Salt River Rafters, striking out at just a 17.9 percent clip while walking at a 12.6 percent rate in 22 games.

With the Rockies wrapping up a 119-loss season in 2025, there may not be much reason to keep Condon at Triple-A for long in 2026 (or at all), as they can use all the offense they can get, and his 60-grade power will be well-suited for Coors Field.

It may come with a ton of strikeouts, but the Rockies' second-ranked prospect (MLB No. 61) will be up in the big leagues with others from the '24 Class who were drafted after him, including Nick Kurtz and Jac Caglianone, and his stay will be long enough to reach the 30-homer threshold in 2026.

7. Kevin McGonigle is the AL Rookie of the Year

McGonigle was drafted in 2023 and showed well in his first stint in professional ball, hitting .350 in 12 games at Single-A that same year. In 2024, he hit .326 in 60 more games at Single-A before earning a late-season promotion to High-A.

In 36 games at High-A in 2025, the Tigers' top prospect (MLB No. 2) hit a sizzling .372 before being promoted to Double-A. Double-A proved a bit more challenging, as he hit .254 in 46 games, but the other part of his game is the ability to draw walks.

At every stop along the way, he's registered more walks than strikeouts, including a 33:26 BB:K during his time at Double-A.

The 21-year-old was also sent to the AFL this year, and guess who won the AFL Most Valuable Player award? Yup, McGonigle. The right-handed hitter hit .362 in 19 regular-season games and, of course, walked more than he struck out (19:12 BB:K).

So what, can he hit for power? With a .512 career slugging percentage in the minors, the answer is a resounding, "Yes." For comparison, the aforementioned Simpson -- who can hit and doesn't strike out much -- owns just a .377 career SLG in the minors.

Kevin McGonigle had a season to remember.

He posted a .991 OPS across three levels, upped his home run total to 19 and became Baseball America's No. 2 overall prospect.

But he knew there was still work to be done, and he's getting help from a Hall of Famer:… pic.twitter.com/ODbigj3t4s

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) October 17, 2025

McGonigle blasted 19 home runs in 2025 and five more in the AFL (second-most in the circuit), so there is pop in his bat. For what it's worth, he can steal a few bases as well with a 22-steal season in 2024 (10 SB in 2025).

2025 All-Star second baseman Gleyber Torres just accepted his qualifying offer and will be back in 2026, so the keystone won't be an option for McGonigle, but his main position has been shortstop, and that could be an option, or as some type of infield utility player (Zach McKinstry can be the OF utility player).

Whatever the case, McGonigle should have a shot to win a spot come springtime, but if he's not on the Opening Day roster, he'll go back to Triple-A and prove he's a natural-born hitter. Then, he's called up by May, giving him enough time to put an AL Rookie of the Year case together.

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