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RotoBaller staff's fantasy football sleepers, avoids, and start 'em sit 'em picks for Week 13 of 2025. Expert lineup advice from Adam Koffler, Rob Lorge, and Thunder Dan Palyo.
Three games are already in the Week 13 rear-view mirror, and whether you are out to a big lead or a deficit, it's important to nail lineup decisions for the rest of the slate. Only two weeks of the fantasy football regular season remain in most leagues, and we're here to help you collect those must-have wins ahead of your title push!
It's time for the next edition of our RotoBaller staff start-or-sit calls. Three of the industry's best analysts are here to break down potential sleepers and busts ahead of the full slate of Week 13 NFL action.
These fantasy football sleepers, avoids, and busts are from top RotoBaller contributors Adam Koffler, Rob Lorge, and "Thunder Dan" Palyo.
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Week 13 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Picks
Kenneth Gainwell, Steelers vs. Bills (Rob Lorge)
Jaylen Warren missed Week 4 with an injury, but in the team's other 10 games, when Gainwell and Warren were both active, Gainwell has stayed plenty involved. In those ten contests, Warren has a 54.3% snap share, compared to Gainwell's 43.3%. However, there's been a large discrepancy in their rushing attempts.
Gainwell has handled just 22.0% to Warren's 59.7% in those ten games. Despite this large difference, their expected half-PPR PPG average is fairly close. Warren stands at 13.0 and Gainwell at 10.0 half-PPR PPG. Both players have underperformed, unfortunately, with Warren averaging 11.9 half-PPR PPG, while Gainwell is at 7.9.
FIRST DOWN KG 💪
📺 #PITvsCHI on @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/Ss7BSsrNBt
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) November 23, 2025
However, there's been a change in the last three weeks, one that has heavily favored Gainwell. Gainwell has a 54.7% snap share, compared to Warren's 41.9%. While the rushing share still heavily favors Warren (52.5% to 23.8%), Gainwell's involvement in the passing game has increased.
This has led to Gainwell having an expected half-PPR PPG average of 14.6 across these three games, whereas Warren's is 9.4. Gainwell's expected half-PPR PPG average has translated to actual scoring, averaging 14.2 half-PPR PPG during this time. Warren's half-PPR PPG is just 10.2 half-PPR PPG.
Gainwell and Warren have split the two carries inside the 5-yard line, but Gainwell holds a 4-2 edge in rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line. Both Steelers' running backs are in play in Week 13, but Warren is the one who is generally ranked much higher, often finding himself inside the top-20, while Gainwell is often ranked just outside the top-25. Buffalo is allowing 23.8 half-PPR PPG to opposing running backs. This is the third-most in the NFL.
While running backs have scored 23.8 half-PPR PPG against Buffalo, they've scored just 19.5 half-PPR PPG in their other contests. This is one of the best matchups for running backs, and Gainwell's utilization is trending up.
RJ Harvey, Broncos at Commanders (Adam Koffler)
This one feels obvious, but I’ve gotten some questions on whether or not to start Harvey this week after a lackluster performance in Week 11. The answer is a resounding “yes.” He’s the clear 1A in the Broncos’ backfield, and he’s facing off against a Washington team allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing RBs.
The Chiefs, the team Harvey faced in Week 11, allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Denver has a 24.5-point implied total and a 5.5-point road favorite. Harvey should feast on Sunday.
Devin Neal, Saints at Dolphins (Thunder Dan)
Alvin Kamara still hasn't practiced and has no incentive to rush back from an MCL injury to a team that is heading nowhere. Neal is questionable for this game, too, but has at least practiced in a limited capacity this week.
If Neal is the starter, he's going to be startable as a FLEX play this week against a relatively weak Miami run defense. Even if the yards come at a premium on the ground, Neal showed some nice upside as a receiver last week, catching five of seven targets for 43 yards.
Juwan Johnson, Saints at Dolphins (Rob Lorge)
Chris Olave left Wednesday's practice early with a back injury. At this time, it doesn't seem serious or likely to impact his gameday status, but if it leaves him less than 100%, it could increase Johnson's utilization this weekend.
The Dolphins have allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this season at 13.7 half-PPR PPG. This represents a 2.9 half-PPR PPG increase compared to their season average. Nine tight ends have scored at least 7.5 half-PPR points against the Dolphins, giving Johnson a safe floor this weekend.
Tyler Shough hits his TE Juwan Johnson for 52 yards!
NOvsCAR on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/9sjtnsfWR7
— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025
Johnson himself has scored 7.5 half-PPR points in eight out of his 11 games. He has five games with double-digits, with a season-high outing of 17.2 half-PPR points. Since Tyler Shough took over as the starting quarterback, Johnson is averaging 4.3 receptions, 56.3 yards, and 0.67 touchdowns per game. This has resulted in an 11.8 half-PPR PPG average.
Johnson has performed as a top-12 tight end all year. He's been remarkably consistent and now has one of the best matchups for tight ends. He's a strong start in Week 13.
Woody Marks, Texans at Colts (Adam Koffler)
Yes, he hasn’t hit double figures in each of his last two games, but Marks has an elite role in Houston right now. Since the bye week, he’s averaging 16 opportunities per game. Since completely overtaking Nick Chubb in Week 10, Marks has a 73% RB opportunity share on roughly 73% of the snaps.
He hasn’t been targeted much in the passing game the last two weeks with the Texans playing with the lead, but that could change in a competitive Week 13 game against a Colts team that gives up the seventh-most targets to RBs this season.
John Metchie III, Jets vs. Falcons (Thunder Dan)
Talent has never been the issue with Metchie; it's just been about being healthy and getting an opportunity. That opportunity is there with the Jets, and Metchie has seized it, going 3-45-1 and 7-65-1 in his last two games.
He should continue to function as the WR1 for the Jets this week, and the upgraded QB play of Tyrod Taylor gives him some more dependability than you might expect.
Week 13 Fantasy Football Busts and Sits
Michael Pittman Jr., Colts vs. Texans (Rob Lorge)
The Houston defense has not allowed a single quarterback to finish inside the top-12 in any single week all season. They're allowing just 13.1 PPG to opposing quarterbacks this year. While Pittman obviously isn't a quarterback, his production is tied to Daniel Jones's. Not coincidentally, then, the Houston defense has also allowed the third-fewest PPG to receivers this season.
Houston has allowed just 21.2 PPG to receivers this season. However, in their other contests, those same receivers are averaging 26.5 PPG, a 5.3 PPG decrease when facing the Texans' defense. Only five receivers have scored double-digits against the Texans this year.
Those are Puka Nacua, Emeka Egbuka, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Parker Washington, and Khalil Shakir. While Washington did score 16.3 half-PPR points against Houston, six of those came via a punt returned for a touchdown. Only two receivers - Nacua and Smith-Njigba- have eclipsed 15 points via receiving and rushing stats.
Pittman has been held to under 30 yards in back-to-back games, and there are reports that Jones is dealing with a lower leg injury. Given the matchup and Jones being less than 100%, fantasy managers should be lowering their expectations for Pittman, and if they have a better option, this weekend might be a good time to ride that player.
Jauan Jennings, 49ers at Browns (Adam Koffler)
Jennings has operated as the 49ers’ WR1 even with Ricky Pearsall back in the lineup. But how valuable is that role against a Cleveland team allowing the second-fewest receptions to opposing wideouts this season? Sustained winds are forecasted at 20+ mph with gusts reaching nearly 40 mph, which could put a damper on the passing game.
There’s also a good chance the 49ers go up early and play with the lead, leading to fewer Brock Purdy pass attempts. This feels like a Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle game more than a Jennings or Pearsall game.
Greg Dortch, Cardinals at Buccaneers (Thunder Dan)
The Greg Dortch run is officially over as Marvin Harrison Jr. is set to return to the lineup. Dortch offered some decent value for a few weeks, but should see his snap share dwindle with Harrison back and Michael Wilson establishing himself as a third option behind MHJ and Trey McBride.
Brock Bowers, Raiders at Chargers (Rob Lorge)
Bowers has appeared in eight games this season. He's been held to 8.5 half-PPR points or fewer in five of them. He has scored 93.7 half-PPR points this season, but 40% of that total came in one game against the Jaguars. Eliminating that game, Bowers is averaging just 8.0 half-PPR PPG. He now goes up against a Chargers' defense that held him to 6.3 half-PPR points back in Week 2, before the knee injury occurred.
Given his target volume, it's virtually impossible to bench Bowers; however, fantasy managers should be lowering their expectations. His busting is entirely within the realm of possibility, and given how the Raiders' offense has performed this season, along with Bowers, that maybe should be the consensus expectation.
The Chargers have only allowed two tight ends to eclipse 10.0 half-PPR points this season. Those two were Travis Kelce back in Week 1and Tyler Warren in Week 7. No tight end has scored 15.0 half-PPR points against the Chargers all season. In the last four weeks, no tight end has scored 5.0 half-PPR points against Los Angeles.
This is a brutal matchup, and while the change in offensive coordinator could spark optimism, I highly doubt it will bring many changes in a week's time. At the end of the day, they'll still be stuck with Geno Smith, who has been atrocious all year.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos at Commanders (Adam Koffler)
Sutton got off to a fast start this season, but has cooled off tremendously since then. Since Week 6, he’s averaging just 3.2 catches on 6.2 targets per game. He’s also scored just one touchdown in his last seven games. His lack of production has coincided with both Troy Franklin’s and Pat Bryant’s emergence in Denver.
With Evan Engram and Marvin Mims also healthy, Bo Nix has a full complement of pass-catchers at his disposal, making Sutton more of a boom-or-bust option. Look elsewhere if you have better backup options.
Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers vs. Cardinals (Thunder Dan)
It's been a rough go of it for Egbuka owners over the last month, as the rookie had just one big game despite the Bucs having a depleted receiving corps. It might be time to sit him down this week, as Chris Godwin is set to play, and Bucky Irving is also making his return to the lineup.
I expect the Bucs to get back to running the football against a bottom-10 Arizona rush defense, especially with Baker Mayfield banged up. It's tough to see enough volume for Egbuka in this one with the Bucs now healthier, and he's likely a very touchdown-dependent play without all those extra targets.
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