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Rick Lucks' 10 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2025 MLB season, including predictions for Jackson Chourio, Roki Sasaki, Xavier Edwards and more.
Welcome back RotoBallers to another edition from our yearly Bold Predictions series from the MLB team. It's one of the most exciting times of the fantasy baseball calendar: bold prediction season! As a reminder, bold predictions aren't supposed to be likely outcomes but long shots with a purpose.
These predictions, in particular, all do one of two things. If a player has an early ADP, I'll call out why he's too expensive with a worst-case scenario. If a player seems to be an afterthought in fantasy, I'll explain why he deserves more attention.
In addition to my 10 bold predictions below, you can also checkout other staff bold predictions from Jarod Rupp and John Laghezza. Without further ado, let's get started!
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Xavier Edwards Steals at Least 60 Bases
Xavier Edwards was outstanding in 2024, slashing .328/.397/.423 with 31 steals over 303 PAs for the Marlins. His unsustainable .398 BABIP has fantasy managers leery, and investing in Miami's offense generally isn't a winning strategy. However, there are plenty of positives in the 25-year-old's profile.
Edwards was an efficient base thief, only getting caught four times for an 89% success rate. He projects as Miami's leadoff hitter, and the team's lack of power overall should make them aggressive on the bases.
He probably won't repeat his .398 BABIP, but Edwards' plus speed and low 26.5 percent FB% support an elevated BABIP. Edwards also demonstrated superlative plate discipline with a 10.9 percent BB% and 17.2 percent K%, backed by a 22.5 percent chase rate and 7.1 percent SwStr%, so he doesn't need BABIP to reach base.
Edwards has no power at all, but he should be a huge base thief who provides bonus value in batting average and runs scored.
Reynaldo Lopez Is a Top-20 SP
Reynaldo Lopez's conversion back to starting went swimmingly in 2024 as he went 8-5 with a 1.99 ERA and 3.44 xFIP in 135 2/3 IP. His ERA will likely increase this year, but Lopez's 27.3 percent K% and 7.7 percent BB% suggest he'll remain an effective pitcher.
Lopez has the arsenal to make fantasy managers happy. His fastball was only okay last year with a 6.5 percent SwStr%, but its 65.2 percent Zone% sets up everything else. His slider is his best strikeout pitch, with a 20.8 percent SwStr% and 38.1 percent chase rate, and his change performed similarly with an 18.5 percent SwStr% and 38.9 percent chase rate.
Lopez's curve posted a 15.6 percent SwStr% and 32.9 percent chase rate, but its 42.6 percent Zone% is nearly 10 points higher than his slider (33.5 percent) or change (33.3 percent). Overall, Lopez has a complete repertoire.
Seth Lugo was effective in his first year as a starter with San Diego, but he really hit his stride in year two as a Royal. Lopez is ready to make a similar jump with last season's workload, setting him up for a full year in 2025. Of course, Lopez also has a great supporting cast as the Braves project as the National League's second-best team.
Spencer Horwitz Records an OBP of .400 or Better
Spencer Horwitz fared well as a Blue Jay last year, hitting .265/.357/.433 with 12 homers in 381 plate appearances. Plate discipline was his calling card, with an 11 percent BB% backed by a 25.1 percent chase rate, and he has upside, too, considering he didn't post a minor league BB% below 14.9 percent since 2022.
Horwitz doesn't strike out often either, posting an 18.4 percent K% backed by a 7.8 percent SwStr% in 2024.
Pittsburgh is projected to platoon Horwitz, giving him superior rate stats at the expense of volume. The ballpark switch should also help him as Pittsburgh's Baseball Savant ballpark factors all favor his game (103 OBP, 102 hits, 102 BB), whereas Toronto's didn't (100 OBP, 98 hits, 97 BB).
Horwitz has enough pop to keep pitchers honest, an outstanding eye, and projects for favorable matchups as a platoon bat. He could be a steal in OBP formats.
Jackson Chourio Will NOT Be a Top-50 Outfielder
Jackson Chourio enjoyed a great rookie campaign as a 20-year-old, slashing .275/.327/.464 with 21 HR and 22 SB in 573 PAs. Fantasy managers widely expect him to build on his season in 2025, but he needs considerable growth just to repeat last year's production.
Chourio's seven caught stealing gave him a 76 percent success rate, lower than the league's 79 percent rate. Milwaukee expects to contend this year, so Chourio might not keep the green light if he stays inefficient on SB attempts despite his 97th-percentile Statcast Sprint Speed.
Likewise, Chourio's 31.5 percent FB% was low for a slugger, forcing him to rely on his 16.4 percent HR/FB to generate power. Chourio's .430 xSLG was 34 points lower than his actual mark, suggesting significant power regression in the offing. Milwaukee probably won't provide many R+RBI opportunities, either.
Chourio's future is bright, but prospect growth isn't linear or guaranteed. Taking him at his current cost requires substantial growth to break even, and that's never a good bet.
Bryce Miller Will NOT Be a Top-50 SP
Bryce Miller was effective last season, pitching to a 2.94 ERA with a 12-8 record. His ERA estimators were far less kind, though, whether you prefer his 3.72 xERA or 3.85 xFIP. Miller's 24.3 percent K% also wasn't high enough to move the needle in fantasy, creating lots of risk should his .237 BABIP, 9.9 percent HR/FB, and 78.2 percent strand rate regress as expected.
Lest you think Miller has some sort of contact suppression ability, he doesn't:
That's a whole lot of blue in the contact quality metrics. Miller becomes an even riskier proposition when you consider his repertoire. His fastball is great, with a 13.5 percent SwStr% and 58.9 percent Zone%. Its 2,484 rpm spin rate is impressive, but its 90.2 percent active spin means roughly 10 percent is wasted.
Miller's fastball is his only good pitch. His sinker's 2.8 percent SwStr% is a joke, his slider's 8.6 percent SwStr% and 22.1 percent chase rate are well below average, and his knucklecurve accomplishes nothing with a 27 percent Zone% and 29.2 percent chase rate. His cutter is similar with a 7.9 percent SwStr%, 33.3 percent Zone%, and 31 percent chase rate.
Miller's split is decent with a 15.1 percent SwStr%, 45.2 percent Zone%, and 34.2 percent chase rate, but batters don't fish for it often enough to call it a true wipeout pitch. Seattle's offense won't provide much run support either, so where's the upside?
Emmanuel Clase Records Fewer than 20 Saves
Emmanuel Clase had a magical season as Cleveland's closer, posting 47 saves and a 0.61 ERA over 74 1/3 IP. Naturally, his ERA estimators were much higher (2.81 xFIP, 2.47 xERA), and his 4.3 percent HR/FB, 85.1 percent strand rate, and .195 BABIP all appear unsustainable. The expected regression started during his dreadful postseason (9.00 ERA in eight IP).
A deeper dive paints an even bleaker picture. Clase's 24.4 percent K% is extremely underwhelming for a closer, and his career rate of 24.8 percent isn't any better. Clase is a two-pitch pitcher, and his signature cutter isn't that good for Ks (12 percent SwStr%, 58.8 percent Zone%). His slider is good (19.8 percent SwStr%, 48 percent Zone%, 42.9 percent chase rate) but not elite.
Cleveland's bullpen is full of guys with higher projected strikeout rates, including Cade Smith, Paul Sewald, Tim Herrin, Andrew Walters, and Erik Sabrowski. If the Guardians explore other options, they'll have plenty to choose from. Sewald is particularly interesting since they brought him in on a $6 million deal despite their shoestring budget and offensive needs. Why?
Clase is a GB% guy, but his 57.4 percent GB% doesn't support a microscopic BABIP. His game plan also suffered when Cleveland traded defensive wizard Andres Gimenez to Toronto. Gimenez led all MLB players with 21 Outs Above Average in 2024, and he's not there anymore to field Clase's grounders.
Assuming Clase remains effective, he'll still have to contend with his club. The Guardians won 92 games last year but were fourth-place in the AL Central by Base Runs, overperforming significantly. ZiPS projects them for just 77 wins in 2025, potentially leading to fewer save opportunities.
With few strikeouts and a weak supporting cast, there's no way Clase should be the first closer off the board. There are way too many things that could go wrong.
Danny Jansen Slugs at Least 30 HR
Danny Jansen wasn't good last year, slashing .206/.308/.348 with nine homers in 328 PAs split between Toronto and Boston. He flashed good power numbers before that, hitting 17 HR in 301 PAs in 2023 and 15 in 248 PAs in 2022.
The 30-year-old has never been the unquestioned starter on his team, preventing him from realizing his offensive potential. Defensive specialist Ben Rortvedt shouldn't be anywhere near the playing time obstacle Alejandro Kirk was, and the Rays should give their rare free agent acquisition every opportunity to play regularly.
Furthermore, Jansen set a career-high with a 52.9 percent FB% last season. That's Rhys Hoskins territory, meaning he won't need a huge HR/FB to post strong power numbers. Last season's 7.6 percent HR/FB didn't cut it, but his career rate of 13.4 percent would.
Between more playing time and an extreme fly ball profile, Jansen could thrive in Tampa Bay. The batting average will be ugly, though.
Edwin Uceta Leads MLB in Saves
Speaking of the Rays, they're notorious in fantasy circles for not appointing a set closer. Pete Fairbanks historically leads the bullpen by committee, but the 31-year-old had a down 2024 with a 3.57 ERA and 23.8 percent K%. The Rays won't let inertia prevent them from winning games, so the top spot appears ripe for the taking.
Enter Edwin Uceta. Uceta was dominant with a 1.51 ERA, 1.98 xERA, and 2.49 xFIP across 41 2/3 IP in 2024. Better yet, he posted a 35.8 percent K% against a five percent BB%. Tampa was his fourth team in four years, and the Rays sprinkled their magic pixie dust on him by changing his repertoire.
Uceta's fastball was replaced by a top-tier sinker boasting a 15.9 percent SwStr% and 57 percent Zone%. His change played well off it with a 19.2 percent SwStr% and 44.6 percent chase rate. Finally, the Rays equipped Uceta with a new cutter with a 14 percent SwStr% and 58 percent Zone%.
The 27-year-old checks all the traditional closer boxes, yet he's an afterthought in drafts this year. The Rays aren't known for going with one set closer, but Uceta offers RP1 upside if they do.
The Tampa Bay Rays Will Qualify for the Postseason
This author selects a sleeper team each year to overperform expectations and provide more wins than other managers expect. This year, the pick is the Rays. Jansen and Uceta are discussed above, and they also have the best run prevention in the AL East per ZiPS:
That graphic also highlights that the Rays have the worst offense in the division, but their temporary home park should solve that problem. George M. Steinbrenner Field has Yankee Stadium's dimensions in Tampa's heat, which sounds offense-friendly. Some projections won't have that baked in, boosting the team's bats relative to expectations.
Pitchers will struggle, and strikeouts will be the only way to succeed. Luckily, Shane McClanahan, Taj Bradley, and Ryan Pepiot all project for more than a strikeout per inning, and Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen are close. Tampa Bay's outstanding defense should also help mitigate baserunners, so homers should be solo shots instead of crooked numbers.
Part of this prediction is also Tampa's competition. The Yankees look strong, but the Orioles lack pitching after Corbin Burnes left, and their can't-miss offensive prospects have been remarkably unimpressive thus far. Toronto's current core isn't winning anything, and Boston is projected to finish last by PECOTA, even if others like them.
Finally, there's Murphy's Law. MLB doesn't want to showcase a minor league park in the postseason, which means it's going to happen. That means at least one of Tampa or the A's is postseason-bound, and the Rays are the stronger team on paper.
Tomoyuki Sugano Outperforms Roki Sasaki in Fantasy
Finishing off with one of the boldest predictions on the list! Sasaki should perform well on a rate basis and is backed by the best supporting cast in baseball, but the Dodgers have a long-term investment in the 23-year-old, forcing conservative usage in year one. LAD is going with a six-man rotation, and Sasaki probably won't be allowed to pitch deep into games.
In contrast, Sugano is 35 and on a one-year contract, so the Orioles have no incentive to hold him back. Baltimore also projects as a contender, so Sugano should earn his fair share of wins if effective.
Sugano's efficacy is the biggest question as the public scouting report is an 80-grade command of subpar stuff, but a deeper dive provides optimism. He won the Central League MVP award in Japan last season with a 15-3 record and a 1.67 ERA in 156 2/3 innings, and most of his arsenal rated well by Stuff+:
Sugano's fastball isn't very good, but the rest of his arsenal plays off of it well. He also commands all four of his most-used pitches, and his splitter's 20.1 percent SwStr% provides the strikeout upside fantasy managers crave.
This author also expects more splitters as MLB's 22.6 percent K% is higher than Nippon Baseball's 18.5 percent K%. Sugano is an experienced veteran who will take the additional Ks available to him.
Notably, this is a pro-Sugano prediction, not an anti-Sasaki one.
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