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Nick's 10 league-winning hitters, fantasy baseball breakouts, values, studs to provide massive return on value in 2026 including Jac Caglianone, Brenton Doyle, Cam Smith, more.
It's time to have a serious discussion about what accessible building blocks I'm looking to forge my team foundations around once I've made it through the first eight rounds. There's no shortage of content surrounding elite players, and you can always check out my ranks across the site! However, this writer firmly believes that leagues are won by hitting on these player tiers.
We're going to hone in on my top league-winning hitters going after pick 100 using NFBC ADP since March 1. In fact, let's just build out a nice offensive lineup from top to bottom of bats that get my heart racing. These players all provide me with significant reason(s) to buy into their finding (or rediscovering) their next level.
Please follow RotoBallerMLB on X for all of our league-winning content, as well as me, @NMariano53, for any questions or additional fantasy chit-chat. There are many players in the ocean, but who are the big fish that we're after? Join me as I cast a line or two and get down to business.
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Francisco Alvarez, C, New York Mets
NFBC ADP: 156
Alvarez only held a .256/.339/.447 triple slash with 11 HRs in 76 games last year, but savvy drafters will look beyond the baseball card. He made a splash with 25 HRs in 123 games as a 21-year-old back in ‘23, but has largely disappointed since (and he only hit .209 then).
Mix in a midseason “get-right” Triple-A assignment, as well as a pair of injuries (torn thumb ligament, fractured pinky), and you’ve got a recipe to be overlooked. The good news is that we’ve got encouraging data to go off of, marked approach changes, and improved health for 2026.
Francisco Alvarez has lost about eight or 10 pounds by focusing on his nutrition, he said. He worked with director of hitting Jeff Albert in the offseason and will be keeping the batting stance he re-adopted after returning from his demotion to Triple-A last year.
— Laura Albanese (@AlbaneseLaura) February 13, 2026
Much of his woes were rooted in being late on fastballs. This was addressed by having him open up his stance with a different “ready” position for the bat/his hands. Even with a pair of hand issues, he showed out over his last 41 contests.
The result was a .276/.360/.561 slash line, with the whiff rate against fastballs halved while his slugging percentage doubled. That’s the kind of trend-swap we’re interested in seeing! I’m happy to wait on him as a late catcher in 1C 12-team formats, or take him as No. 1 in 2C leagues.
Jac Caglianone, 1B/OF, Kansas City Royals
NFBC ADP: 170
Caglianone was a powerhouse at Florida, but had pro-ball adjustments to make at High-A (.690 OPS, 2 HRs in 126 PAs/29 games) during his first taste of post-college life. Of course, then went nuclear with a .982 OPS and 15 HRs in 50 games between Double and Triple-A last year before getting called up. This included six round-trippers in his final 10 Triple-A tilts.
But while fellow rookie Nick Kurtz was able to keep the party going in the majors, Caglianone swung into a horrid .157/.237/.295 slash line (.172 BABIP), but it would’ve been less dramatic if the .237 xBA and .431 xSLG came to the surface.
Please note that a hamstring strain in late July did break things up. It also gave the organization a chance to reset at Triple-A, where he hit .385 with five HRs and five doubles in 16 games. So the overall MLB experience we saw was a disjointed 62-game roller coaster.
Even so, we did get a 12% barrel rate and 90th percentile maximum exit velocity (114.1 mph). He has blown past this in 2026, posting a whopping 120.2 mph exit velo this spring before joining Team Italy.
Of 348 batters with at least 200 PAs, Caglianone held a top 50 EV50 rate (102.9 mph), the seventh-fastest bat speed (77.4), and had the largest negative gap between his BA - xBA (80 points) and SLG - xSLG (136).
And while Kauffman Stadium’s wall adjustments may not be as drastic as Camden’s “Walltimore” phase, it should reward the massive power profile with a couple more dingers. It’s moot if the poor 29.7% launch angle sweet spot rate and 4.1 degree average launch angle return, but he’s far too young with a Kurtzian ceiling to relent now.
Luke Keaschall, 2B, Minnesota Twins
NFBC ADP: 106
A second-round pick of Minnesota’s in the 2023 Draft, Keaschall hit .303 with a .903 OPS over 102 minor-league games in 2024. This included 15 HRs and 23 SBs across Single and Double-A, as the contact and speed tools do outpace the power.
Keaschall’s MLB career was off to the races with five stolen bases, three doubles, and a 2:5 K:BB before fracturing his arm after being hit by a pitch. It was a lengthy rehab process, and then the bat returned, but the speed didn’t seem to follow.
His 23 August contests saw the plate discipline (10:14 BB:K) and extra-base hits (four homers, six doubles) show up, but he only had three swipes. September saw him go 6-of-7 on steal attempts, though the discipline and power dissipated before he tore his left thumb’s UCL on a slide.
And now with 13 spring games in his pocket, the youngster is 14-for-38 (.368) with a 1.058 OPS, a homer, two triples, four doubles, and two steals. He turns 24 in August and will look to level up that 12/40 HR/SB pace from last year’s small sample! Our legendary Eric gets it:
Bold Prediction...
Luke Keaschall goes 90/18/80/35/.300 and finishes as a Top-2 second baseman for fantasy.pic.twitter.com/oM7rkOJLAo
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) March 16, 2026
Kazuma Okamoto, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
NFBC ADP: 194
Okamoto has been ripping homers at a massive clip since growing into his six-foot frame, averaging over 30 HRs per NPB campaign since 2018. This frequently came with a health batting average of .265 or greater, which rose to .327 last year at 29 years old.
His walk rates were roughly 10% at worst, and nearly always below 20%. This is not a free-swinging power plant. In fact, his swinging-strike rate has gone from 11.7% in ‘23 to 9.5% in ‘24 and 8.8% last year.
It’s no secret that MLB pitching is going to greatly strain any NPB metrics. We also have to be sure that his left elbow can hold up to a full season after it was injured in a collision at first base last season.
However, that risk is more than priced in. Okamoto has the discipline and power to be a fantasy difference-maker, and his landing with the Blue Jays (rather than the White Sox, like Munetaka Murakami) is far friendlier for R+RBI.
Toronto was a top-five offense with 798 runs in 2025, the Rogers Centre is a top-five venue for right-handed bats (two-year rolling average, per Statcast), and Okamoto has the swing-decision output to be a key piece of the puzzle.
Max Muncy, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
NFBC ADP: 230
Maybe it is Muncy’s age, but I can’t wrap my head around how an everyday element for a top-tier offense is going so low. Is it the injury perception from the last two years? Because that bone bruise from getting slid into sure falls into the “freak chance” category.
Perhaps the anchoring effect cognitive bias has a stranglehold on you? After all, Muncy did have a horrid start to 2025. But he is also one of the few players we can look at with a clear “A/B test” for before/after correction of astigmatism in his right eye.
Before: 28 games, 0 HRs, 14:34 BB:K, .180 AVG, .531 OPS, 89 mph average exit velo.
After: 72 games, 19 HRs, 50:49 BB:K, .268 AVG, .969 OPS, 92 mph AEV.
That’s right! In about half of a season’s worth of games, Muncy was on pace for about 40 HRs with well over 200 R+RBI alongside that .268/.406/.563 slash line. All of this led me to one of my bold predictions, being that Muncy outperforms Junior Caminero.
I know, they’re meant to be a bit outlandish, eh? We all know that Caminero is entering his prime window with mind-bending power at his fingertips. But even just comparing last year’s breakout of his to Muncy’s “I can see!” period is enlightening.
From April 30 on (Goggle Day Zero), Muncy’s 14.5% Barrel/Batted Ball Event rate was right there with Caminero’s 14.8% clip. But due to walks, Caminero has an 11% Brl/PA mark to Muncy’s 9.2% rate.
Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies
NFBC ADP: 193
Tovar failed to capitalize on the momentum shown in his 2024 campaign, where he bashed 26 HRs with a .269 batting average while leading the National League with 45 doubles at 22 years old. An early left hip injury suffered in April likely waylaid any chance at that, but then he also dealt with a left oblique issue in early June.
Valid concerns remain, such as having a career-high on-base percentage of .295 after three qualifying seasons. But Tovar is another young prospect who debuted at 20 and dealt with stunted development due to the missed 2020 minor-league season.
That’s not to say that he’ll become Kevin Youkilis at the dish, though we did see the walk rate take a modest bump to 5.4% last year following the 3.3% clip in ‘24. He also needs to improve the lifetime 22-for-35 success rate on steals.
But even without all of that, a bat that cranks 26 HRs at 22 has to be considered a reasonable threat to surpass 30 at 24 years old. Maybe he doesn’t crack a .310 OBP, get the green light for 10 steals (he swiped 11 in ‘23), or conquer the Coors’ road-split demons. Maybe he doesn’t have to.
I’m willing to largely write off 2025 and look at the simple aging trends for someone like him. It is understandable if you don’t want to, especially with many other SS options to speculate on. Of course, if you do want to take another path to upside here, then let’s go with this next guy.
Kevin McGonigle, SS, Detroit Tigers
NFBC ADP: 240
MLB Pipeline’s No. 2 overall prospect earned that placement by showing a plus eye, maturing power, and game-ready speed over 88 minor-league contests. He endured a lowly .230 BABIP over 46 games at Double-A, and yet the .254/.369/.550 slash line was still garnering eyeballs.
Of course, this came after a .392 BABIP fueled a .372/.462/.648 line over 36 games at High-A! Between the two levels, he wound up with 19 HRs, 31 doubles, and a pair of triples with 59 walks and 46 Ks.
Comerica Park may not be a hitter’s paradise, but at least the lefty-swinging McGonigle is here for post-2022 Comerica with the lower and tighter walls for center and right field. The three-year rolling Statcast Park Factor for lefties since then is a neutral 100, so the hit tool should be A-OK.
For those curious, 40 spring PAs have yielded a 1.063 OPS with five XBH (two homers), a steal, and a 6:10 K:BB. Speaking of steals, McGonigle did go 22-for-24 on attempts in 2024 before scaring us with a 3-for-8 clip at High-A last year. He rebounded with a 7-for-9 rate at Double-A, so we’re feeling comfortable.
Brenton Doyle, OF, Colorado Rockies
NFBC ADP: 164
Doyle made massive strides in 2024, going from a modest power-speed threat with horrible plate discipline to a five-tool stud in center field. At 26 years old, Doyle turned 603 PAs into 23 HRs, 30 SBs, and a .260/.317/.446 triple slash. The 35% strikeout rate fell to 25.4% as the zone-contact rate jumped from 79.8% to 87%.
As a result, Doyle’s consensus ADP wound up near pick 70 going into 2025 drafts. While he started by going 17-for-53 (.321) with three homers, 19 R+RBI, and a steal in 12 games, the emerging OF would then have a year to forget.
Not only did he suffer a hamstring injury, but soon thereafter, his family went through a miscarriage. The next two months yielded only two homers, a .469 OPS, and poor defense. I don’t want to speculate much about timelines for recovery from something mental and traumatic like that, but late June did supply a marked change.
Throughout the struggles at the dish, Colorado’s hitting coaches were telling Doyle not to change anything and keep pushing. But before June 26’s game against the Dodgers, they came together and changed where Doyle’s back foot was oriented on the swing.
The final 71 games saw him hit .275 with 10 HRs and 10 SBs. We’ve seen Coors mirages before (Michael Toglia?). I’m giving the man grace and rooting for a rebound with an offseason to recover.
Carson Benge, OF, New York Mets
NFBC ADP: 311
Benge was the 19th overall pick in the 2024 draft after being a two-way stud at Oklahoma State. And while the Mets won’t let him throw that mid-90s cheddar on the mound, he can help us with a plus bat, some wheels, and a potential job in a robust offensive environment.
He blew through the minors last year, going from a High-A start to finishing up at Triple-A Syracuse, producing a .281/.385/.472 with 15 HRs and 22 SBs over 116 games. Though his walk rate suffered as he ascended, his strikeout rate held steady at around 18%.
You may shy away upon seeing the .178 average in the 24 Triple-A games, but this is not a profile that will often run a .188 BABIP in any sample of that size. The 55-grade speed, all-fields approach, and not having a fly-ball-happy swing profile should make for a solid batting average.
Perhaps it’ll take a while for true game power to surface against MLB pitching as a result, especially since several prospect-savvy folks have noted a longer swing. The other “knock” is that he may prove to be a jack of all trades, master of none. No one tool carries the banner, but we’ll take 15-20 HRs, 25 SBs, and a .265/.350/.460 rookie campaign!
Cam Smith, OF, Houston Astros
NFBC ADP: 320
This is for that one guy on Twitter who said my Smith hype was all wishcasting, because apparently I have to reiterate some data and points for folks in the back! Imagine thinking we can write off or define a top prospect who became an everyday MLB player after just 32 professional games?
Amongst other tools flashed, Smith had a 95th-percentile sprint speed and a 99th-percentile 28.6% line-drive rate in the first half. My theory is that never having played a full 162-game slate anywhere, let alone with MLB-caliber rigors, caught up to his endurance in the second half.
The bat-to-ball skills are promising, and we’ll hope for increased conditioning going into Year 2. Comparing swing metrics from the first and second halves, you’ll see that Smith’s fast-swing rate fell by four percentage points. Other key metrics that fell by 2-6 points were the Ideal Attack Angle rate and Blast Contact rate. Blasts are squared-up swings that meet a speed threshold.
And a fast, potent swing is not Smith’s problem. That 74.5 mph bat speed on competitive swings in the first half snuck into the top 25, tied with guys like Bobby Witt Jr. and Elly De La Cruz. Not too shabby! With refinement, his attack angle will improve and create far more barrels with that underlying talent.
The same goes for his speed ceiling after just eight steals. However, he was only caught once, which should earn the green light. Of 271 players with 100 or more opportunities, Smith’s 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed ranked 14th.
With both latent power and speed potential to tap into, on top of being a highly-touted prospect and not a guy with 100 different hurdles to jump through to get playing time and attention, Smith should be on all radars at such a late pick. He defines low-risk, high-reward.
There are three players with a sprint speed and bat speed both in the 90th percentile or higher this season.
Julio Rodriguez
Oneil Cruz
Cam Smith 👀— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) June 3, 2025
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