8 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions - John Laghezza's 2025 Picks

March 3, 2025

John Laghezza's 8 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2025 MLB season, including predictions for Jacob deGrom, Gunnar Henderson, Jeff Hoffman and more.

A hearty hello and a hi-yo Silver to all my new friends out there in the RotoBaller universe. I'm so honored to be a part of your fantasy family, being on the other side of the computer screen as a fan and reader for years. The weather is getting warm and spring training games on TV can only mean one thing -- PLAY BALL!

For my opening salvo, let's get BOLD. Sure, these claims appear wild on their face but it's not just cooked pasta flung at the wall. These are all predictions with a legitimate shot of coming to fruition, and my rostership rates reflect just that. I'm going down with this ship...

Let's take a look at my boldest prediction for each fantasy baseball position for the 2025 season.

Catcher

Cardinals' Ivan Herrera Is A Top-3 Catcher

Perhaps splitting playing time down the stretch in St. Louis is causing drafters some trepidation, pushing Ivan Herrera down to pick 290, per RotoBaller’s consensus ADP. However, the Cardinals cleared the runway for my breakout pick, jettisoning veteran Paul Goldschmidt to the Boogie-down Bronx and replacing him with Willson Contreras at first base.

Herrera has displayed a level of durability to build off, averaging 382 plate appearances a year for four seasons across different levels. He’s not just the best-hitting backstop on the team but good enough to contend for DH at-bats, where 13 percent of his PAs came from last season.

This is the year it all comes together for the 24-year-old Panamanian import. He’s got an excellent approach (20.5 percent K, 9.4 percent swinging strike, 9.5 percent BB, 29.4 percent O-Swing, 87.5 percent zone contact) that resulted in a .301 BA on a stellar .295 xBA -- with the pull-side power to hit 30 bombs (42.4 percent hard-hit rate, 8.9 percent Barrel, .405 xwOBAcon, 10.4 percent Pulled FBLD).

First Base

Reds' Christian Encarnacion-Strand Is A Top-5 1B

I want you to take whatever you think about Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s 2024 season and write it down on a little piece of paper. Now burn it. Injuries in small samples age like old milk -- and anyone ignoring the potential for a massive breakout is on the wrong side of history.

What do we need to happen to make this wild prediction a reality? Just a full complement of plate appearances while reassuming his prior professional trajectory. Encarnacion-Strand’s career 600 PA pace through the minors is the baby thrown out with the fantasy bathwater -- .322 BA, 100 R, 123 RBI, 36 HR, 8 SB. Whoa.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - Cincinnati Reds (2)* pic.twitter.com/SNOFuI4ki8

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) March 1, 2025

That type of potential stat line doesn’t just fall out of trees at ADP 231, where he’s currently being drafted. And yes, Great American Ball Park's (aka Great American Small Park) 128 home run park factor for right-handed hitters rates ~6% higher than the field. Wheels up for CES.

Second Base

Nationals' Luis Garcia Jr. Is The No. 1 2B 

Maybe not the best place for a skittish preface, but a big part of this bold prediction is how low I am on the second base position as a whole. Sure, Washington’s Luis Garcia Jr. began the 2024 season playing part-time at the back end of the Nats lineup. Well, that lasted all of a month before forcing his way into the top third of the order.

Garcia is ready for a huge step forward after markedly improving year over year in a true exchange of skills -- dropping his strikeout and whiff rates while boosting metrics across the board in contact, lift, and power. Plus, the Nationals run wild, stealing more bases in 2024 than the Braves, Giants, and Twins combined.

Expect Garcia to top +530 PAs for the first time, shaking the label as a platoon bat after hitting .259 off southpaws last season -- with little to no competition behind him. System consensus projects him for similar output as 2024 but I’m not buying it -- at only 24 years old with a track record for high batting averages and steals, the boost in PA and Nationals Park’s top-5 hitting environment will take care of the rest.

Shortstop

Orioles' Gunnar Henderson Is Not A Top-30 Fantasy Baseball Hitter

I’m sure this one’s going to make me very popular down in Charm City with the Oriole faithful. Let me be clear, I don’t think Henderson’s bad at all, I simply view him as vastly overpriced.

For starters, it took Henderson 719 PA to finish as fantasy’s sixth-best hitter last season -- something only one player (Juan Soto) accomplished in both 2023 and 2024. Not to put negative injury vibes into the universe but the fact remains it’s incredibly difficult to repeat; MLB’s a grind.

Now, take a look at how optimally his production played out in terms of power. Henderson’s 47 percent ground-ball rate ranked as the 17th highest in MLB among all players with +500 PA, yet only two others managed to eclipse 31 homers. Henderson also converted just 53 Barrels into those 37 HR, a 69.8 percent rate -- way above the league average, especially for a player with a single-digit 9.5 percent Pulled FBLD.

Third Base

Marlins' Connor Norby Is A Top-5 Third Baseman

Connor Norby, Baltimore’s 41st overall pick in the 2021 draft, finally got a sustained taste of the big leagues after being traded to Miami for southpaw Trevor Rogers. Now, while it didn’t go exactly according to plan in terms of discipline (32.1 percent K, 18.1 percent swinging strike), believe it or not, there’s a ton to be excited about.

Fantasy projections are more complex than simple extrapolations, this much is true. However, just expanding Norby’s output with the Fish to 600 PA (during what was widely considered an incredibly disappointing campaign) gets him to a robust .247 BA, 107 R, 63 RBI, 26 HR, and 11 SB. Not too shabby.

We’ll need Norby to get the strikeouts under control and closer to his MiLB career 23 percent K to hit his true ceiling, but it’s not out of the question at just 24 years old. The central point for this prediction that is left vastly ignored remains the underpinning power metrics -- which don’t even need to improve for a mind-bending breakout.

Connor Norby put up a 14.8% barrel rate in 2024.

That mark exceeds Vlad Jr, Bobby Witt Jr, and Yordan Alvarez's barrel rate.

If he fixes his strikeout problems and improves at third base, he'll be an All-Star-caliber player in 2025. pic.twitter.com/rX1Vsyrz0V

— Ryan (@MarlinsRyan) February 25, 2025

See, you can spot a through-line in the list of hitters matching Norby’s PA total with comparable +14.5 percent Barrel, +.410 xwOBAcon, and +13 percent Pulled FBLD: Marcell Ozuna, Shohei Ohtani, Kerry Carpenter, Jhonkensy Noel, Corey Seager, Brent Rooker, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Schwarber.

I rest my case.

Outfield

Angels' Jo Adell Is A Top-20 OF

After a half-decade of anticipation with an equal level of disappointment to match, finally, the prophecy is fulfilled…

It feels like forever since the Angels selected Jo Adell as their first-round pick back in 2017, but I double-checked my sources and he’s still just 25 years old. Despite finishing 2024 as fantasy baseball’s 147th-ranked player, no one seems to care, as Adell finds himself once again parked near ADP 300.

Having posted MLB career bests in not only wRC+ and wOBA but swinging strike, walk, ground ball, fly ball, chase, zone contact, hard-hit rate, and barrel rates -- I’m finally ready to buy in for the big breakout.

While there are reasonable batting average concerns, Adell’s 2024 BABIP fell nearly 50 points shy of his prior MLB mark after posting a .286 BA throughout his MiLB career. Especially encouraged by the disciplinary gains, our next stop’s superstardom.

A full complement of at-bats with a willingness to steal plus last year’s glimpse of prodigious power (11.7 percent Barrel, 12.4 percent Pulled FBLD, 115.6 max EV) could be all it takes to make Adell a top-20 OF in 2025 and a top-60 overall selection in 2026.

Starting Pitcher

Rangers' Jacob deGrom Is The No. 1 Overall Fantasy Player

Close your eyes tight and think … what if Jacob deGrom makes 30 starts in 2025? Well, he’d be the No. 1 fantasy asset running away. Jake the Snake has posted cartoonish numbers going back seven seasons -- 2.07 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 30.6 percent K-BB, 17.4 percent swinging strike, 39.1 percent O-Swing, 77.9 percent zone contact, and a 0.71 HR/9 while earning wins in over 35 percent of starts. Wow.

Jacob deGrom will make his 2025 Cactus League debut on Friday, per Bruce Bochy. pic.twitter.com/gIap1FIf8K

— Michael Bier (@MichaelJBier) March 1, 2025

If this were a video game, I’d suggest switching the settings to a higher difficulty. At 36 years old on a team looking to return to championship glory, deGrom’s beyond getting babied at this point -- he’s getting the pill every five days for a chance at one more historic season.

Relief Pitcher

Blue Jays' Jeff Hoffman Is The No. 1 Closer

We cannot accurately predict when players will get hurt and being “injury-prone” is made up (ducks). While it was reported both the Braves and Orioles backed away over concerns with his physical, Hoffman’s made 122 straight appearances without missing any time -- I’ll take my chances.

That said, relievers boil down to role plus skill and Toronto’s newest addition checks both those boxes in spades. Hoffman recently inked a three-year deal worth $11M AAV, so he’s the guy up north -- not to mention the Blue Jays are one of the few teams to exclusively feature a single RP in the closer spot.

When it comes to skills, Hoffman is not taking a backseat to anyone. In 2023, he adjusted his pitch mix in Philly to feature a devastating slider-first approach and the results speak for themselves -- 118.2 IP, 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 26.0 percent K-BB, 16.4 percent swinging strike, 39.7 percent ground ball, and 0.68 HR/9 are everything we dream of in a reliever’s profile. Toronto’s going to be just competitive enough to wind up in close games for this year’s RP1.

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