Carson Kelly: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Welcome to Champ or Chump! We take an extremely detailed look at a single player per piece, incorporating information from everywhere we can think of to determine whether the featured player is a champ or a chump in fantasy baseball. The biggest sources are Baseball Savant and FanGraphs, but we also look at ADP data […]

Statcast Pitch Tracking: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

When you're evaluating a pitcher by Pitch Info on FanGraphs, sometimes you see pitches that don't seem to accomplish anything. If Pitch X is seldom a strike, rarely chased outside of the zone, and not generating whiffs or a favorable batted line against, why doesn't the pitcher scrap it entirely? Some pitchers could improve by […]

Pitcher Statcast: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

Statcast metrics such as Barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a batter's performance, so it is only natural to assume that the metrics would be predictive for pitchers as well. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is evidence […]

Statcast xStats: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

Statcast is a valuable tool for fantasy analysis, and it can be easy to look at a stat called "Expected Batting Average" and blindly use it as your projection moving forward. Of course, proper use of these metrics is a little bit more nuanced than that. First, a disclaimer: This article is about the "Expected […]

Barrels and Brls/BBE: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

We've previously looked at how exit velocity is only one piece of the fantasy analysis puzzle. Baseball broadcasts will commonly cite Launch Angle (LA) to complement their EV figures, but it is given in terms of degrees. LA is basically a fancy way of saying things that the fantasy community has used for years. Am […]

Spin Rate: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. It has also become controversial as of late due to allegations of pitchers using foreign substances to increase their spin. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job conveying […]

MiLB Stats: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

Once you've grown accustomed to having advanced tools to help make fantasy decisions, it can feel disorientating to be without them. Prospects are increasingly becoming a focal point in both real and fantasy baseball, but the minors simply do not have all of the data available for MLB players. For example, advanced plate discipline stats, […]

Statcast Exit Velocity: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures. There […]

Ballpark Factors: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on a home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line. Ballpark Factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real-life schedule. […]

Pitch Info: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly-available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to […]

Batting Order: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

You may be wondering why there aren't any advanced stats aimed at predicting a player's counting stats like runs and RBI. The answer is simple: modern sabermetrics reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in ascertaining […]

Pull%: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

We have previously determined that fantasy managers generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. One way to illustrate this is […]

HR/FB: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Batting average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. Most fantasy managers find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many […]

FIP/xFIP: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

While we've only examined how to evaluate hitters using advanced stats thus far, sabermetrics are at least as useful for pitchers. The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting […]

Pitcher BABIP: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy managers should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some of […]

Plate Discipline: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy managers have known for years that players like Mike Zunino are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff a lot tend to continue […]

Batter BABIP: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

The most accessible of the fantasy-relevant advanced stats is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It simply measures a player's batting average on balls in play, with outcomes such as strikeouts and home runs removed from consideration. In general, the league average hovers around .300, a nice round number to remember. Many know […]

Hitter Batted-Ball Distribution: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not always the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution and how batters make contact. The league average […]

Introduction to Advanced Stats - Sabermetrics Fantasy Baseball Analysis

Hello, fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series will attempt to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Multiple […]

Champ or Chump: Me!

With just a week to go this season, most fantasy seasons have come to an end. Managers in weekly formats have set their final lineup, and predicting how teams will distribute playing time based on their ever-changing needs ahead of time is an exercise in futility. The entire premise of this column relies on using […]

Champ or Chump: Elias Diaz

If you're reading this, your fantasy baseball roster is probably still playing for something. Congratulations! If a positive result hasn't been locked in yet, remember that your league's caps for games played and/or innings pitched should be seen as targets. At the end of the day, the fantasy manager who hits those caps enjoys a […]

Champ or Chump: Ranger Suarez

Last week, we discussed how dropping seemingly undroppable players could make sense for fantasy managers in battles that are going to the wire. While that's true, it also means that you could find somebody on waivers who you might not expect to be there. For instance, Ranger Suarez of the Philadelphia Phillies has a 1.38 […]

Champ or Chump: Frank Schwindel

Now that the calendar has officially flipped to September, it's time to get weird if it helps you in the standings. If your league is coming down to saves and holds, roster SP-eligible relievers such as Diego Castillo and Ryne Stanek instead of starting pitchers. If you're ready to move on from a big name […]

Champ or Chump: Edward Cabrera

With September call-ups limited to just a handful of players instead of every rebuilding club's entire 40-man roster, fantasy managers may not get as many new names on their waiver wires as they've grown accustomed to. That said, there are still some interesting names coming up. The Miami Marlins got a jump on the competition […]

Champ or Chump: Amed Rosario

With football monopolizing the general media's sports coverage, many fantasy baseball managers begin checking out and thinking more about QBs and RBs than QS and RBI. If you're in the middle of the pack, now could be a good time to make some prudent additions and begin rising up the standings. It's crunch time, folks! […]

Champ or Chump: Josiah Gray

Last week, this column took a detailed look at Tylor Megill's performance to date and concluded with a pessimistic take on the sustainability of his current numbers. If your roster needs pitching and Megill isn't the answer, you may be wondering who is. This author would answer Josiah Gray. Gray was always regarded as a […]

Champ or Chump: Tylor Megill

Isn't it amazing what one player can do? Led by Jacob deGrom, the New York Mets appeared poised to waltz into the playoffs after outlasting a mediocre division. With deGrom out for an extended period, the Phillies have surged past them while the Braves currently enjoy a half-game advantage over them. The Mets ace was […]

Champ or Chump: Tanner Houck

Did any team have a more puzzling trading deadline than the Boston Red Sox? Okay, the Seattle Mariners trading their All-Star closer to the team they're chasing for a package largely comprised of future value was a bit strange. Still, the Red Sox need a pitcher and an injured power hitter without a position is […]

Champ or Chump: Patrick Sandoval

Patrick Sandoval exploded onto the national scene when he nearly no-hit the Minnesota Twins, but his name has been whispered in fantasy circles as a potential sleeper for quite a while. He posted a 4.02 xFIP in 39 1/3 IP in 2019 and 4.00 xFIP in 36 2/3 IP in 2020, but actual ERAs of […]

Champ or Chump: Jarren Duran

The MLB trade deadline is quickly approaching, and contenders are incentivized to get a look at top prospects to see if they have internal solutions for their problems or will have to look outside of their organization for help. The Boston Red Sox have summoned Jarren Duran from Triple-A to see if he could give […]