Ramon Laureano: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

July 12, 2022

Outfielder Ramon Laureano has authored some great fantasy campaigns over his career, but his 2022 has been disappointing thus far. Will he be able to turn it around or does he belong on your league's waiver wire? Rick Lucks's deep dive into Villar's 2022 fantasy value.

Fantasy managers knew that Ramon Laureano would miss the first 27 games of the 2022 season due to his 2021 PED suspension, but he was still seen as a solid late-round pick for the category juice he provides. In 2019, he slashed .288/.340/.521 with 24 homers and 13 steals over just 481 PAs. That regressed to .246/.317/.443 with 14 HR and 12 SB over 378 PAs in 2021, but the blend of power and speed was still enticing. What could he do with 500+ PAs?

Laureano has been a disappointment thus far in 2022, slashing .237/.332/.389 with six homers and eight steals over 226 PAs. Many managers who waited until May 8 to activate him from the suspension list have since cut him, leading to a roster rate of just 39% in Yahoo! leagues. The surface stats might not look great, but there is a ton of potential in his peripherals that suggests a pick-up is warranted.

Indeed, a combination of positive regression and better luck could lead to Laureano posting a second half reminiscent of his 2019 campaign, winning many leagues where he was acquired for free. Let's take a closer look at him:

Does Ramon Laureano Deserve that .237 Average?

Batting averages are lower today than they once were, but many managers still aren't excited about adding a sub-.240 mark to their squad. Laureano hasn't always been a batting average asset, but the skills are there for a significant boost.

Let's start with his plate discipline. Laureano is currently sporting a career-best 22.6 K% backed by a 28.2% chase rate and an 11 SwStr% that are both better than his career rates (31.3% and 11.6%, respectively). Striking out less is obviously a positive for posting stronger batter averages, but Laureano hasn't seen the benefits yet. The strong chase rate is also fueling a 9.3 BB% that's great for managers in OBP formats and those who want Laureano to get on so he can steal a bag.

Laureano's .291 BABIP is substantially lower than his career mark of .320, with his performance on line drives and grounders the primary reasons why. First of all, Laureano is hitting fewer liners than usual with a 17.7 LD% against a career rate of 22.2%. LD% fluctuations are generally predictive of nothing, so we should expect the outfielder to start hitting more of them. His liners should also be more productive moving forward, as his BABIP on liners is .654 this year against .715 for his career.

Similarly, Laureano's .230 BABIP on ground balls is below his career mark of .256. He hasn't lost any speed relative to last year with identical 27.6 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed scores, so his legs don't seem to be the issue. Laureano is a career .319 hitter against the shift who pulls less than 60% of his grounders, so the shift isn't to blame either. His 85.9 mph average exit velocity on grounders is closer to his 2019 mark (86.7) than his 2021 mark (82.7), so his contact quality is fine.

Baseball Savant's expected statistics call for a .254 xBA based on Laureano's exit velocities and launch angles, and this author is willing to bump it a little higher for his above-average speed and the possibility of more liners. ZiPS projects Laureano for a .253 average the rest of the way, and something in the .270 range wouldn't be surprising at all.

Does Ramon Laureano Still Have Power?

Laureano never joined the fly-ball revolution with a career 35.5 FB% that's sitting at 32% this season, instead producing acceptable power numbers through his 16.4% career HR/FB. Only 12.8% of his flies have found the cheap seats thus far, explaining where the missing power went.

However, Laureano hasn't deserved that loss of HR/FB. His average airborne exit velocity of 93.5 mph is right in line with his work in 2019 (93.3) and 2021 (94), while his 10.2% rate of Brls/BBE splits the difference between '19 (9.7%) and '21 (10.7%). His max exit velocity tells a similar story, as this year's 110.2 mph mark is competitive with his best batted balls of 2019 (111.6) and 2021 (112.1), especially considering that he still has half a season to best it.

It all adds up to a .472 xSLG that's 83 points higher than his actual mark even before we factor in what a few more line drives might do for him. Laureano's power potential is likely capped at 20-25 HR in a full season since he doesn't hit too many flies, but he is still capable of producing at that rate this season.

Will Ramon Laureano Be Traded?

As an established name on one of the few true sellers this coming trade deadline, Laureano's name has been all over the rumor mill. There's no guarantee that he'll be swapped, but any ballpark switch would likely be a positive for his fantasy value. Oakland Coliseum ranks 29th in Statcast park factors from 2020-2022, including a crushing 78 factor that suppresses power production there. Trading that for nearly any other park should help his HR total.

The Athletics consistently hit Laureano second or third in the batting order, giving him as many R+RBI opportunities as the team's mediocre offense can muster. He might not have as important of a role with a new club, though his speed and batting eye could lead to a look as a leadoff hitter on a contender. If he isn't traded, his important role in Oakland's lineup should help him contribute counting stats for the rest of the year.

The Final Verdict on Ramon Laureano

Laureano played in extended Spring Training games and a few MiLB contests before returning from his suspension, but you have to wonder if it took him a few weeks to readjust to MLB pitching. After making his season debut on May 8, he didn't hit his first homer until May 28. Any adjustment period should be over now, making Laureano the power-speed threat with batting average upside that fantasy managers thought they were drafting in March. He is a Champ in all formats.

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