Kyle Tucker's 2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Analysis Of Chicago Cubs Trade

With Juan Soto signing a record-breaking contract, Willy Adames finding a new home in the Bay Area, and Garrett Crochet shipped to Boston, the Chicago Cubs decided to make a splash of their own by acquiring superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker from the Houston Astros.

On Friday, December 13, the Chicago Cubs traded third baseman Isaac Paredes, third base prospect Cam Smith, and right-handed pitcher Hayden Wesneski to the Houston Astros in exchange for Tucker. 

While this deal increases Chicago’s chances of returning to the postseason for the first time since the 2020 shortened season, what does it mean for fantasy baseball? In this piece, I will analyze Tucker’s performance last season and see if he can remain an elite outfielder in the Northside. If you have any questions about any offseason moves and trends, feel free to chat with me on X @A_Smith_FS.

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Kyle Tucker 2024 Season Review

Across 78 games last season, Tucker performed at his typical elite level, boasting a .289/.409/.585 line with 13 doubles, 23 home runs, 49 RBI, 11 stolen bases, and an impressive 56:54 BB:K ratio.

Tucker dealt with a lingering shin injury that kept him sidelined from mid-June to almost September. This injury was initially deemed minor, as he was placed on the 10-day IL but ended up missing just over three months of the regular season.

Once he returned in September, the outfielder posted a .365/.453/.587 slash line, suggesting this injury should not affect his play at the start of the 2025 season. However, in September, Tucker only swiped one base. While this may not account for too much, it is worth monitoring, given he stole the majority of his bases before his shin injury and could become something to monitor during Spring Training.

Across an entire 2023 season, Tucker held a similar .284/.369/.517 line with 29 home runs and 30 stolen bases. That season, he also boasted a strong 80:92 BB:K ratio and added 112 RBI with 37 doubles.

A GO-AHEAD GRAND SLAM FOR KYLE TUCKER IN THE 9TH! pic.twitter.com/Z72DpMNA17

— MLB (@MLB) August 9, 2023

Since becoming a full-time player during the 2021 season, Tucker has consistently performed at an elite level in all aspects of the game. Over the past two summers, his production aligns with his career .274/.353/.516 line. Given his near-perfect consistency, there should be no doubt Tucker will continue to perform at an elite level in 2025.

A Look Under The Hood

While his box score metrics have remained incredibly consistent throughout his professional career, let’s look at his metrics to begin projecting his performance in 2025.

Through a small sample of games (78) last season, the 27-year-old generated incredible metrics across the board, boasting marks that were significantly above the average marks in almost every statistical category.

Kyle Tucker takes sole possession of the MLB home run lead with No. 18. 🚀 pic.twitter.com/Dur9c9Jwgu

— MLB (@MLB) May 26, 2024

He generated a .400 xwOBA, .536 xSLG, and a .279 xBA. In addition, he held a 12.9% barrel rate, 44.9% hard-hit rate, 40.0% launch angle (LA) sweet-spot%, and a strong 16.5% walk rate and 15.9% K rate.

When looking at his 2023 production under the hood, fantasy managers can understand whether he is due for some regression or even more improvement.

In 2023, the former fifth-overall pick generated a .386 xwOBA and .530 xSLG, placing him in the top 93rd and 95th percentile, respectively. In addition, Tucker boasted a 45.9% hard-hit rate and 106.% barrel rate, which were also in line with his 2024 production.

Even though he played in much fewer games during the 2024 season, his metrics remain among the top hitters and are almost identical to his 2023 production. As a result, Tucker should still be considered a top-5 outfielder heading into the 2025 campaign.

2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Before we delve into Tucker’s outlook for the upcoming season, let’s briefly touch on what it means for Paredes and other Cubs moving down south.

First, Paredes should be in line to enjoy a career season playing in Houston. During the 2023 season in Tampa Bay, Paredes launched 31 home runs, operating as an extreme pull hitter. 

He was on pace to continue this stretch in 2024, hitting 16 home runs in the first half. However, when he was traded to the Chicago Cubs after the trade deadline in 2024, Paredes tallied only three round-trippers on the Northside. Wrigley Field is not built for pull hitters, and a significant drop in production was expected for him.

However, according to Baseball Savant, his expected home run count would have been 26 if he had played an entire season as an Astro. Fantasy managers should feel confident targeting him as a top-12 option at the hot corner this season.

Hayden Wesneski has bounced between the rotation and bullpen throughout his career and has yet to find his footing in either role. Across 190 career innings, the right-hander holds a 3.93 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He could be a target in deeper AL-only formats if he earns a spot in the starting rotations.

The Cubs drafted Cam Smith with the 14th overall pick in last year’s draft out of Florida State. He got a brief look in the minor leagues after leading the Seminoles to the College World Series and held an impressive .313/.396/.609 line across the lower levels and even earned a brief five-game taste of Double-A.

Smith is already considered the top prospect in the Houston system on MLB Pipeline and could contend for a late-season major league debut. Do not be surprised if he is near the top 30 overall prospects on MLB.com by June. He is developing into a budding star.

Now, back to Tucker. Moving to Wrigley Field is a park downgrade on paper (19 xHR compared to 22 xHR in Houston last season).

When looking at a player like Paredes, fantasy managers should pay more attention to hit given his weaker metrics; given how hard Tucker hits the ball, this should be considered an afterthought. His new park will not affect Tucker’s elite eye at the plate, stellar contact, and great speed.

Another day, another Kyle Tucker home run. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/BWbx8nhYDd

— MLB (@MLB) June 1, 2024

The only drop could come in counting stats. While the Cubs offseason is not near complete, given the circulating rumors around Cody Bellinger, this lineup could look a little different in a month from now.

However, as it stands, Tucker will likely bat in the top half of the lineup and be surrounded by Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and potentially Pete Crow-Armstrong (if he is the leadoff man). While not having Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez around you is technically a downgrade, given Happ’s elite walk-rate and Suzuki’s increasing power, the drop in counting stats may not be as significant as one may assume.

With Tucker’s superstar hitting profile, fantasy managers should feel confident taking him as their No. 1 outfielder, sitting at an 8.18 ADP on the NFBC.

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