Jeremy Pena: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

June 28, 2022

Shortstop Jeremy Pena entered the 2022 campaign as an unknown but the early returns have been encouraging. Will he keep it up? Rick Lucks's deep dive into Pena's 2022 fantasy value.

Jeremy Pena was one of the biggest stories of the offseason. The contending Astros expressed minimal interest in retaining the services of star shortstop Carlos Correa and even less in the countless other names available at the position, instead anointing the 24-year-old Pena as their shortstop of the present and future.

Pena's role in a good lineup gave the young shortstop some fantasy buzz as a sleeper, but he exceeded all expectations by slashing .277/.332/.472 with nine homers and six steals before a thumb injury took him out of the lineup for approximately two weeks. He returned to the team over the weekend, making now a great time to take a look under the hood and see if he's a fantasy star.

Pena was a solid prospect but not a great one, being selected in the third round of the 2018 Amateur Draft. Known for his glove at first, he grew into offensive skills as he matured on the farm. Without further ado, let's take a closer look at Pena's profile:

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Small MiLB Resume for Jeremy Pena

Like all minor leaguers, Pena missed out on the 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most minor leaguers, a left wrist injury limited him to about a quarter of a season for Triple-A (Sugar Land) in 2021. As a result, he came into the 2022 campaign with a guaranteed job but very little track record.

Still, he flashed an intriguing skillset for fantasy in his brief taste of Triple-A. He hit .287/.346/.598 with 10 homers and five steals across 133 PAs. His plate discipline wasn't great with a 4.5 BB% and 26.3 K%, and there was a ton of swing-and-miss in his game with a 15.5 SwStr%. He also struggled to elevate the ball with a 31.4 FB%, but he was efficient on the bases with one CS and appeared to have the skills required to maintain his .325 BABIP. There's room for further development, but there's a lot to like too.

This is where we usually bring up what kind of environment Pena played in, but Sugar Land's Constellation Field was an independent ballpark until this season. Therefore, we don't have park factors for it yet.

Breaking Down Jeremy Pena's 2022 Season

Pena has addressed some of his issues from Triple-A at the highest level. His surface plate discipline stats are better with a 5.6 BB% and 23.7 K%, though the underlying 14.9 SwStr% and 37.3% chase rate suggest that more strikeouts could be in his future. His 87.2 Z-Contact% is solid though, so he has a reasonable contact rate in the zone.

Pena is also hitting a few more fly balls with a 37.5 FB%, getting something out of his 16.7% HR/FB without adversely affecting his .328 BABIP. His Statcast contact quality metrics are about MLB average with a 93.2 mph average airborne exit velocity, 9.6% rate of Brls/BBE, and a max exit velocity of 110.5 mph. Pena doesn't have the raw power of an elite slugger, but he's not a slap hitter either. We can probably expect about 20 HR over a full season from him.

Pena is really interesting from a fantasy perspective because of his wheels, and his 29.4 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed is elite. He hasn't been caught stealing at the MLB level yet, suggesting that the Astros will continue to let him run. Pena's speed also gives him some batting average upside as his .214 BABIP on grounders is fairly low for a speedster with an average EV on grounders of 85.3 mph.

All told, Statcast's expected statistics support what Pena has been doing. His .274 xBA is close to his actual average of .277 and might indicate some bad fortune given that the metric consistently underrates speed merchants like Pena. Likewise, his .489 xSLG is a little better than his actual mark of .472. This author could see the average come down a little if he starts striking out more and fails to maintain his 23.6 LD%, but anything above .250 is gravy if you're getting power and speed.

The Final Verdict on Jeremy Pena

Perhaps the biggest downside to rostering Pena is through no fault of his own. Manager Dusty Baker consistently hits him sixth or seventh in the order, denying Pena the opportunities to pad his counting stats that would otherwise accompany a role in Houston's high-powered offense. You would like to think that Pena could hit his way into a bigger role, but Kyle Tucker was a borderline MVP candidate last year and seldom hit higher than sixth. Sometimes Dusty Baker does Dusty Baker things.

Outside of that, Pena looks like a solid player. Both his power and speed seem real, and while his batting average may drop a little from his current level it shouldn't fall enough to be a deal-breaker. He's only 75% rostered in Yahoo! leagues, so pick him up where available. Alternatively, you could try buying low on Pena if his current manager forgot about him while he was on the IL. Jeremy Pena is a Champ.

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