Batting Order: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

You may be wondering why there aren't any advanced stats aimed at predicting a player's counting stats like runs and RBI. The answer is simple: modern sabermetrics reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in ascertaining […]

Pull%: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

We have previously determined that fantasy managers generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. One way to illustrate this is […]

Pitcher BABIP: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy managers should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some of […]

FIP/xFIP: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

While we've only examined how to evaluate hitters using advanced stats thus far, sabermetrics are just as useful for pitchers. The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy managers encounter is Fielding Independent Pitching or FIP. FIP measures a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to DIPS (Defense […]

Plate Discipline: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy managers have known for years that players like Joey Gallo are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players who whiff a lot tend to continue […]

Hitter Batted Ball Distribution: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy baseball managers want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not always the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution. The league average batted ball distribution in […]

HR/FB: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Batting average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. Most fantasy managers find the long ball sexier, though. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. […]

Batter BABIP: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

The most accessible of the fantasy-relevant advanced stats is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It simply measures a player's batting average on balls in play, with outcomes such as strikeouts and home runs removed from consideration. In general, the league average hovers around .300, a nice round number to remember. However, it […]

Introduction: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball 2024

Hello fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series will attempt to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy managers may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Multiple […]

Will Tyler O'Neill Hit a TON in Beantown? Fantasy Baseball Outlook

While the world waited to see where Shohei Ohtani would sign, a handful of teams concentrated on smaller moves. One of the best examples is the Boston Red Sox, who swapped minor-league pitchers Nick Robertson and Victor Santos to the St. Louis Cardinals for 28-year-old outfielder Tyler O'Neill on December 8. Tyler O'Neill enjoyed a […]

Champ or Chump: Me!

Throughout the season, we've explored numerous players in this column and attempted to predict whether they would be worthwhile fantasy assets. Now that the regular season is over, the verdict is in. In this article, we'll look at every player that appeared in this column in 2023. Each player will include the date of publication […]

Joe Boyle: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

We're down to the final week of the 2023 fantasy baseball season, and anything could happen. A great player could have a miserable week and cost you a fantasy title. An awful player could hit five homers and win you a title. Who knows? Analyzing a player's track record is the best we can do […]

Sawyer Gipson-Long: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

If your fantasy baseball team still has something to fight for, now is the time to start looking at the nitty-gritty. Think about who you might want to stream a few days in advance. Consider what you might do if teams like the Braves and Dodgers start resting their regulars. Of course, you should already […]

Ryan Noda: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

This time of year, fantasy managers are chasing whatever categories they stand to gain (or lose) the most points in. If you're in a roto league where five SBs separate the third-place team from the ninth, optimizing for steals is the right strategy. Some fantasy managers assume that rate stats like batting average, OBP, ERA, […]

Jasson Dominguez: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

September call-ups aren't as crazy as they once were. Some teams used to call up their entire 40-man rosters! However, the 2023 version still includes several interesting rookies fantasy managers should be paying attention to. No name has as much buzz as Jasson Dominguez. The 20-year-old Yankees prospect has otherworldly tools that earned him the […]

Parker Meadows: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

September is approaching, so it's crunch time in fantasy baseball. Writing a column like this becomes challenging this time of year since your place in the standings page dictates who you should pick up and every manager has a different standings page. Do you need average? Power? Speed? It's rare for a waiver wire option […]

Noelvi Marte: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

It's hard to believe that shortstop was a weakness for the Cincinnati Reds coming into the season. Granted, nothing good is going to happen when Kevin Newman is Plan A and a bounceback from Jose Barrero is Plan B. Both of those plans predictably failed, but Plans C and D have been great. First, Matt […]

Zack Littell: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Most fantasy managers think they do a good job following news around the league. We know who has an everyday job, most of the players on terrible teams, and each club's bullpen situation. We're also constantly looking for breaking news that might be actionable in our fantasy leagues. In this author's experience, the Tampa Bay […]

Kutter Crawford: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

We are officially deep into August now, meaning that generic waiver wire adds are no longer possible. If your team is dominating the power categories and a rival drops Pete Alonso for some reason, you couldn't gain any points by picking him up. Likewise, Jorge Mateo could be a prudent add if a couple of […]

Gavin Williams: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

When a top prospect gets called up, his roster rate typically climbs into the stratosphere. If that prospect is a pitcher with a 3.35 ERA through 37 2/3 IP and an elite pedigree, we'd expect it to approach 100%. Yet Gavin Williams of the Cleveland Guardians is only rostered in 25% of Yahoo! leagues. What […]

Sal Frelick: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

MLB debuts are always exciting, and fantasy managers dream about memorable performances. Unfortunately, we get a lot of 0-for-4s for our trouble. Sal Frelick had other ideas when he made his big league debut against Atlanta on national TV though, going a perfect 3-for-3 with game-tying and game-winning RBIs. Frelick has considerable prospect pedigree, being […]

Zack Gelof: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Sometimes, you see something that restores your faith in humanity. This author felt that way when Oakland called up top prospect Tyler Soderstrom and the fantasy community barely reacted. Soderstrom has elite raw power, but there's significant swing-and-miss in his game, his plate discipline is abysmal, and his swing needs more loft. In short, he's […]

Bryce Elder: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

The All-Star Break has arrived, giving fantasy managers a much-needed break from setting daily lineups. Of course, the most diligent fantasy managers will use this found time to negotiate trades, scour waivers, and look for ways to improve their roster for the second half. One of the most important things to do is review your […]

Seiya Suzuki: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Every fantasy manager enters the season with a list of "sleepers," or players they believe will outperform expectations. Sometimes, they pan out. Occasionally, we banish them to waivers in favor of the hot new thing. All too frequently, we deal with mediocrity on our rosters for far too long. That third category is the one […]

Jordan Westburg: Champ Or Chump For Fantasy Baseball?

Big league teams enjoy having top prospects debut on Mondays, huh? Jordan Westburg, a 24-year-old selected 30th overall in the 2020 amateur draft, made his debut at SS for the Orioles last night. Westburg begins his MLB career as the third-best prospect in Baltimore's system and 34th overall per MLB Pipeline, and fantasy managers are […]

Henry Davis: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Another day, another top prospect making his big league debut. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a realistic shot at the postseason and very little offensive production from their catchers, so Henry Davis has been called up to provide the same spark that Adley Rutschman provided the upstart Orioles last season. Davis was selected first overall in […]

Anthony Volpe: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Fantasy managers love when a top prospect breaks camp with the big league team, but it doesn't always work out the way we hope. For example, the fantasy community was thrilled when 22-year-old Anthony Volpe was named the Yankees shortstop for Opening Day. Through 250 PAs, he's hitting .186/.260/.345. The bright side is his nine […]

Jordan Walker: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

To say that the 2023 season has been a roller coaster for Jordan Walker and his fantasy managers would be an understatement. Largely drafted for his upside after an eventual call-up, the Cardinals included Walker on their Opening Day roster. The fantasy community rejoiced! The good times continued when Walker began his MLB career with […]

Shane Bieber: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

So far this season, this column has focused exclusively on potential waiver wire adds. However, that's not our sole focus. Sometimes, we look at established stars who aren't performing as expected and try to figure out whether a turnaround is in the works. On the surface, Shane Bieber has been solid: 4-3 with a 3.04 […]

Edouard Julien: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

For the second time this season, Edouard Julien has been summoned to MLB by the Minnesota Twins. His first call-up wasn't great, as he currently sports a .219/.286/.406 line with two homers in 36 MLB PAs. However, his MiLB resume, peripheral stats, and prospect pedigree all suggest a guy capable of making a difference in […]