Ryan Noda: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

September 12, 2023

Is Ryan Noda a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Is he a flash in the pan or will he thrive? Rick Lucks' deep dive into Noda's 2023 fantasy value.

This time of year, fantasy managers are chasing whatever categories they stand to gain (or lose) the most points in. If you're in a roto league where five SBs separate the third-place team from the ninth, optimizing for steals is the right strategy.

Some fantasy managers assume that rate stats like batting average, OBP, ERA, and WHIP cannot be chased like this, but they are wrong. Sure, you cannot make up a 20-point OBP differential with a little less than a month to go, but you wouldn't be able to make up a 20 HR deficit either.

This author has firsthand experience chasing rate stats this year, with OBP and WHIP being the targets. Things are going well on the OBP side, with a prudent addition of Ryan Noda as a key piece of the puzzle. The WHIP side is a work in progress, so let's focus on Noda and what he offers in fantasy for now.

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Meet Ryan Noda

At least some of you read that last paragraph and responded, "Ryan who?", so let's learn more about him. Ryan Noda is a 27-year-old rookie for the Oakland Athletics. The A's selected him with the second overall pick in the Rule V draft this season from the Dodgers organization. The Dodgers previously acquired him from the Blue Jays as the player to be named later in the Ross Stripling deal.

Scouts were never that high on Noda, and he was selected in the 15th round of the 2017 Amateur Draft (459th overall). He didn't crack many top prospect lists either, so you could be forgiven if you've never heard his name before. Coming into the season, FanGraphs ranked him 13th in Oakland's system with 45 hit, 50 game power, and 30 run.

That said, Noda has the distinction of posting an above-average batting line at every MiLB stop. He's carried that success to the big leagues, hitting .238/.377/.425 with 14 HR and three steals over 419 PAs as an Athletic. Perhaps more importantly, Noda looks primed to keep doing what he's doing for at least a few years.

Ryan Noda on the Farm

Noda first reached Double-A (Tulsa) in 2021, hitting .250/.383/.521 with 29 HR and three SB in 475 PAs. His 26.7 K% was offset by a 15.6 BB%, and he flashed outstanding raw power with a 27.4% HR/FB. His 40.9 FB% was high enough to take advantage of his pop as well.

Noda was promoted to Triple-A (Oklahoma City) in 2022 and produced similarly: .259/.395/.474 with 25 HR and 20 SB in 574 PAs. Noda's 28.2 K% was high, but he wasn't overwhelmed thanks to his 16 BB%. His SwStr% also improved from 13.2 at Double-A to 11.9 at Triple-A. His power was good with a 22.5% HR/FB, and his LD% jumped from 22.8 in 2022 to 25.4 in 2023.

Noda was old for both levels, but production is production. The Dodgers had too much depth to guarantee a roster spot to someone like Noda, so it's good that he ended up in Oakland.

Ryan Noda Under the Hood

Noda has derived most of his value this season from his OBP, supported by an immaculate eye and a .347 BABIP. His 16.2 BB% is legit, backed by a double-digit walk rate at every MiLB stop and a 21.8% chase rate in the major leagues. Guys with a chase rate that low can sometimes be too passive at the plate. However, Noda's 68.6 Z-Swing% is only a tenth of a percentage point lower than Javier Baez's.

Noda doesn't step up to the plate hoping to walk. Instead, he understands what pitches he can do damage on and refuses to swing at anything else. It's the most advanced form of plate discipline and bodes well for his future success.

Noda's 32.2 K% looks a little alarming, but it works with his sky-high BB%. His 14.3 SwStr% isn't that bad either, so there's some hope he'll be able to rein the Ks in a little.

Similarly, you might not trust Noda to maintain his .347 BABIP, especially since his .218 xBA is 20 points lower than his actual mark of .238. Luckily, there are several indications that Noda is a high BABIP guy. He has posted an above-average LD% at every stop including a 23.5 mark as a major leaguer, maximizing the best batted ball type for BABIP. If he keeps hitting liners, his BABIP will benefit.

Likewise, Noda has mitigated the adverse BABIP implications of his 41.2 FB% with a 4.8 IFFB%, minimizing the number of harmless pop-ups in his batted ball profile. He didn't demonstrate this skill in the minors, but he could've developed it this season.

Noda's scouting report suggests he possesses league-average pop, and the numbers bear that out. His 16.7% HR/FB is a smidge higher than the league average. This is backed by comparable peripherals such as an average airborne exit velocity of 95.5 mph, a 13% rate of Brls/BBE, and a max exit velo of 113.9 mph. With a full season of PAs, 20 to 25 HRs would be a reasonable expectation.

Noda is faster than his scouting report suggests if Statcast is any indication, clocking in at 27.3 feet per second. He might not steal a ton of bases, but he has the legs to beat out grounders and stretch the occasional single into a double.

The Fantasy Situation of Ryan Noda

Noda has earned the everyday 1B job in Oakland with the occasional spot start in the outfield, giving him dual position eligibility in most formats. He also hits first or third most nights, giving him plenty of opportunity to accumulate counting stats. While Oakland is not a good team, their 100 wRC+ in the second half ranks 15th in MLB. The early lineup slot also maximizes Noda's PAs, so his OBP helps more in fantasy.

Noda missed 27 games this season with a fractured jaw and is still dealing with the issue. While the injury doesn't affect him on the field, it's preventing him from eating solid food and may hinder his diet. While not actionable in 2023, this could lead to growth in 2024 and beyond.

Rostered in just 5% of leagues, Noda makes sense as at least a bench bat for any fantasy manager looking for OBP with a little pop. He's a Champ in such formats.

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