Hunter Brown - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Sleepers (2024)

BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 136 CURRENT ADP: ~156 overall ANALYSIS: A surface-level analysis would suggest that Hunter Brown is a great sleeper for 2024. His 5.09 ERA masked a 3.52 xFIP across his 155⅔ IP, his 26.8 K% and 8.3 BB% were solid, and his .330 BABIP, 68.8% strand rate, and 21% HR/FB appear primed […]

ADP Champ or Chump: Jose Leclerc, Anthony Santander, and Andres Gimenez

Once a fantasy baseball draft gets going, it's all too easy to fall into the trap of looking at a guy's numbers and trusting that's who he is. In truth, just as many players perform to their 30th or 70th percentiles as their 50th. You can't always believe what you see. Three examples on 2024 […]

Tyler O'Neill - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Sleepers (2024)

BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 185 CURRENT ADP: ~276 ANALYSIS: Tyler O'Neill didn't have a great 2023, slashing .231/.312/.403 with nine homers and five steals over 266 PAs. Injuries cost him some time, but the Cardinals also benched O'Neill regularly when healthy. It prevented him from getting into a rhythm and showing what he […]

Rick Lucks' 2024 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions

Eric Cross kicked off our 2024 fantasy baseball bold predictions series, and now I'm going to build on that momentum and share 10 bold predictions of my own. As a reminder, bold predictions aren't supposed to be likely outcomes but long shots with a purpose. My predictions in particular all do one of two things. […]

ADP Champ or Chump: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Brandon Pfaadt, and Will Smith

As we approach peak fantasy baseball draft season, it's crunch time. You might think you know each player's value, but double-checking never hurts. We're back with three names of interest on draft day: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Brandon Pfaadt, and Will Smith. Chisholm was the cover athlete for MLB The Show 2023, Pfaadt looked like a […]

ADP Champ or Chump: Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Webb, and Maikel Garcia

Welcome to another year of Champ or Chump! In this column, we take deep dives into fantasy baseball player profiles to determine whether the player is a "Champ" worth adding or a "Chump" better left to someone else. We'll look at each player's NFBC ADP and whether they will likely justify their cost in this […]

Statcast xStats: Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Statcast is a valuable tool for fantasy baseball analysis, and it can be easy to look at a stat called "Expected Batting Average" and blindly use it as your projection. Of course, proper use of these metrics is a little more nuanced than that. First, a disclaimer: This article is about the "Expected Stats" found […]

Average Draft Position: Making Sense of ADP for Fantasy Baseball

ADP, or Average Draft Position, is one of the most commonly cited statistics in fantasy baseball discourse. It allows owners to look at a single number and quickly determine a player's market value, making it easier to identify potential value picks in a draft. Furthermore, fantasy analysts can use it to determine how a particular […]

Statcast Pitch Tracking: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

When you're evaluating a pitcher by Pitch Info on FanGraphs, sometimes you see pitches that don't seem to accomplish anything. If Pitch X is seldom a strike, rarely chased outside of the zone, and not generating whiffs or a favorable batted line against, why doesn't the pitcher scrap it entirely? Some pitchers could improve by […]

Spin Rate: Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job of conveying what spin rate really means. The result has been a ton of fantasy managers who know spin rate exists, […]

Pitcher Statcast: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Statcast metrics such as Barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a fantasy baseball batter's performance, so it is only natural to assume that the metrics would be predictive for pitchers as well. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet, there […]

Barrels and Brls/BBE: Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Previously, we looked at how exit velocity is only one piece of the fantasy baseball analysis puzzle. Baseball broadcasts commonly cite Launch Angle (LA) to complement their EV figures, but it is given in terms of degrees. Are we trying to find the hypotenuse of an isosceles triangle? Launch angle is basically a fancy way […]

Exit Velocity (EV): Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the Statcast era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures. There […]

MiLB Stats: Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Once you've grown accustomed to having advanced tools to help make fantasy decisions, it can feel disorientating to be without them. Prospects are increasingly becoming a focal point in both real and fantasy baseball, but the minors simply don't have all of the data available for MLB players. For example, advanced plate discipline stats, Pitch […]

Park Factors: Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on a home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line. Ballpark factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real-life schedule. […]

Intro To NL/AL-Only Leagues: Draft Strategies for Fantasy Baseball

If you're looking to liven up your fantasy baseball experience, trying your hand at an Only league could be a great way to bring a fresh perspective to one of your favorite pastimes. While standard mixed leagues are largely a race to accumulate as many elite performers as possible, Only leagues allow gamers to demonstrate […]

Pitch Info: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has many statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a public pitch tracking system providing a lot of data to help fantasy managers […]

Batting Order: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

You may be wondering why there aren't any advanced stats aimed at predicting a player's counting stats like runs and RBI. The answer is simple: modern sabermetrics reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in ascertaining […]

Pull%: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

We have previously determined that fantasy managers generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. One way to illustrate this is […]

Pitcher BABIP: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy managers should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some of […]

FIP/xFIP: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

While we've only examined how to evaluate hitters using advanced stats thus far, sabermetrics are just as useful for pitchers. The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy managers encounter is Fielding Independent Pitching or FIP. FIP measures a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to DIPS (Defense […]

Plate Discipline: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy managers have known for years that players like Joey Gallo are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players who whiff a lot tend to continue […]

Hitter Batted Ball Distribution: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy baseball managers want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not always the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution. The league average batted ball distribution in […]

HR/FB: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Batting average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. Most fantasy managers find the long ball sexier, though. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. […]

Batter BABIP: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

The most accessible of the fantasy-relevant advanced stats is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It simply measures a player's batting average on balls in play, with outcomes such as strikeouts and home runs removed from consideration. In general, the league average hovers around .300, a nice round number to remember. However, it […]

Introduction: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball 2024

Hello fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series will attempt to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy managers may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Multiple […]

Will Tyler O'Neill Hit a TON in Beantown? Fantasy Baseball Outlook

While the world waited to see where Shohei Ohtani would sign, a handful of teams concentrated on smaller moves. One of the best examples is the Boston Red Sox, who swapped minor-league pitchers Nick Robertson and Victor Santos to the St. Louis Cardinals for 28-year-old outfielder Tyler O'Neill on December 8. Tyler O'Neill enjoyed a […]

Champ or Chump: Me!

Throughout the season, we've explored numerous players in this column and attempted to predict whether they would be worthwhile fantasy assets. Now that the regular season is over, the verdict is in. In this article, we'll look at every player that appeared in this column in 2023. Each player will include the date of publication […]

Joe Boyle: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

We're down to the final week of the 2023 fantasy baseball season, and anything could happen. A great player could have a miserable week and cost you a fantasy title. An awful player could hit five homers and win you a title. Who knows? Analyzing a player's track record is the best we can do […]

Sawyer Gipson-Long: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

If your fantasy baseball team still has something to fight for, now is the time to start looking at the nitty-gritty. Think about who you might want to stream a few days in advance. Consider what you might do if teams like the Braves and Dodgers start resting their regulars. Of course, you should already […]