Statcast Pitch Tracking: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

When you're evaluating a pitcher by Pitch Info on FanGraphs, sometimes you see pitches that don't seem to accomplish anything. If Pitch X is seldom a strike, rarely chased outside of the zone, and not generating whiffs or a favorable batted line against, why doesn't the pitcher scrap it entirely? Some pitchers could improve by... Read More

Spin Rate: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. It has also become controversial due to allegations of pitchers using foreign substances to increase their spin. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job of conveying what spin... Read More

Pitcher Statcast: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Statcast metrics such as Barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a fantasy baseball batter's performance, so it is only natural to assume that the metrics would be predictive for pitchers as well. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet, there... Read More

Barrels and Brls/BBE: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Previously, we looked at how the exit velocity is only one piece of the fantasy baseball analysis puzzle. Baseball broadcasts will commonly cite Launch Angle (LA) to complement their EV figures, but it is given in terms of degrees. LA is basically a fancy way of saying things that the fantasy community has used for... Read More

Statcast Exit Velocity: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures. There... Read More

MiLB Stats: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Once you've grown accustomed to having advanced tools to help make fantasy decisions, it can feel disorientating to be without them. Prospects are increasingly becoming a focal point in both real and fantasy baseball, but the minors simply don't have all of the data available for MLB players. For example, advanced plate discipline stats, Pitch... Read More

Ballpark Factors: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on a home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line. Ballpark Factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real-life schedule.... Read More

Pitch Info: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly-available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of data to help... Read More

Lineup Slots: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

You may be wondering why there aren't any advanced stats aimed at predicting a player's counting stats like runs and RBI. The answer is simple: modern sabermetrics reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in ascertaining... Read More

Pull%: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

We have previously determined that fantasy managers generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. One way to illustrate this is... Read More

Pitcher BABIP: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy managers should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some of... Read More

FIP/xFIP: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

While we've only examined how to evaluate hitters using advanced stats thus far, sabermetrics are at least as useful for pitchers. The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy managers encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting... Read More

Plate Discipline: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy managers have known for years that players like Mike Zunino are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players who whiff a lot tend to continue... Read More

Batted Ball Distribution: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy baseball owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not always the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution and how batters make contact. The league... Read More

HR/FB: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Batting average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. Most fantasy managers find the long ball sexier, though. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI.... Read More

Hitter BABIP: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

The most accessible of the fantasy-relevant advanced stats is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It simply measures a player's batting average on balls in play, with outcomes such as strikeouts and home runs removed from consideration. In general, the league average hovers around .300, a nice round number to remember. However, it... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball: Introduction

Hello, fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series will attempt to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy managers may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Multiple... Read More

Cal Raleigh: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Did you know that catcher Cal Raleigh has hit 25 homers for the Seattle Mariners this season? Drafted in the third round of the 2018 amateur draft, Raleigh once had some prospect pedigree but saw it fade when his MiLB numbers weren't special. He made his big league debut in 2021 and hit .180/.223/.309 with... Read More

Josh Jung: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

We've reached the middle of September, which means that many fantasy managers are either completely out of it or cruising to a title. If you're among the few in a battle that will last until the season's final days, the particulars of your league standing page will dictate what you have to do. Therefore, the... Read More

Triston Casas: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

September call-ups might not be as extensive as they once were, but that hasn't stopped a variety of prospects from being called up in the past few days. The latest debut is first baseman Triston Casas of the Boston Red Sox, a name that Boston fans have been screaming for since Bobby Dalbec proved he... Read More

Corbin Carroll: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

With September on the horizon, fantasy managers have officially entered the stretch run. This is the time of year when your standings page should be dictating the moves you're making, as it often makes sense to drop a more talented player for one who contributes in key areas you can gain points. Your rivals are... Read More

Brett Baty: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

The Braves (and fantasy managers) are enjoying the production of Vaughn Grissom following injuries to Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia, so the Mets decided to try the same trick by promoting top prospect Brett Baty in the wake of injuries to Eduardo Escobar and Luis Guillorme. Like Grissom, Baty has relatively little experience in the... Read More

Vaughn Grissom: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball

When it comes to prospects, there are two camps that fantasy managers can fall into. Some have severe FOMO and attempt to roster every player called up with even a moderate pedigree, often wasting roster spots that could have been better used on older breakout players or consistent veterans. Others need a reason to roster... Read More

Andrew Benintendi: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Now that all of the real baseball trades are in the books, it's time to assess who won and who lost. In this author's estimation, the Mariners won by acquiring the big pitcher they needed in Luis Castillo, hopefully ending the longest postseason drought in North American sports. The Padres are being credited as a... Read More

Tyler Anderson: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

With the MLB trade deadline rapidly approaching, fantasy managers are also under the gun to make the last-minute moves that will set them up for a successful stretch run. Everybody says that you should "buy low" and "sell high," but your rivals are likely to follow the same philosophy. The trick, therefore, becomes letting a... Read More

Oneil Cruz: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Plenty of top-rated prospects have debuted in recent years, but very few have offered the raw tools of Oneil Cruz. Cruz is the tallest man to ever start an MLB game at shortstop and set a record for hardest infield throw in his first game of the season. Scouts believe he'll stick at short for... Read More

Leody Taveras: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

With the All-Star Break upon us, now is a great time to look at your league's standings page and formulate a plan of attack for the rest of the season. If you're in first, try to proactively identify and address any weaknesses that could be exploited by your rivals. If you're in contention, identify where... Read More

Ramon Laureano: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Fantasy managers knew that Ramon Laureano would miss the first 27 games of the 2022 season due to his 2021 PED suspension, but he was still seen as a solid late-round pick for the category juice he provides. In 2019, he slashed .288/.340/.521 with 24 homers and 13 steals over just 481 PAs. That regressed... Read More

Jonathan Villar: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Every fantasy manager has a weakness for a particular player or even player type. Perhaps you've rostered Nomar Mazara for the last five years because you just know that breakout is coming. Maybe you always spend a draft pick on Eduardo Rodriguez because this is the year he finally pitches up to his peripherals. You... Read More

Jeremy Pena: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Jeremy Pena was one of the biggest stories of the offseason. The contending Astros expressed minimal interest in retaining the services of star shortstop Carlos Correa and even less in the countless other names available at the position, instead anointing the 24-year-old Pena as their shortstop of the present and future. Pena's role in a... Read More