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Are top prospects Andy Pages and Jonatan Clase fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball values.
Last week, we explored how prospect rankings don't always equate to immediate fantasy baseball value. You probably want to roster Jackson Holliday in 2028, but his chances of making a quick impact in our game are low.
The converse is also true. Players who don't have much prospect pedigree may have just the skills your fantasy roster needs.
Two of the hottest names on waivers right now are Andy Pages and Jonatan Clase. Both have relatively little prospect pedigree but skills that could pay immediate dividends for fantasy managers. Let's talk about them.
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Andy Pages (OF, LAD) - 16% Rostered
The 23-year-old Pages has 20 MLB PAs and a .222/.300/.500 line to his name. He was off to a slow start until he did this against the Mets:
First career home run for Andy Pages! pic.twitter.com/rirFFCymZ9
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) April 21, 2024
One homer doesn't prove anything, but Pages' profile suggests more are forthcoming. Here is his FanGraphs scouting report:
That might not look great, but the commentary adds important context: "Pages' swing is as geared for lift as any hitter in the minors, and he should get to enough power to profile in a corner." What Pages lacks in raw power, he makes up for with his volume of fly balls, an approach that has served players such as Rhys Hoskins and Pete Alonso well. Add in strong plate discipline and a place in the Dodgers lineup, and Pages becomes very intriguing.
Traditional scouting grades don't capture Pages' strengths very well, so we have to look at his MiLB performance more than most other players. He first reached the high minors in 2022 with Double-A (Tulsa), slashing .236/.336/.468 with 26 HRs and six steals across 571 PAs. His 14.9% HR/FB was solid, but most of his power came from his astronomical 50.4% FB%.
His extreme fly-ball profile limited his BABIP to .271, but his OBP was still respectable, with a 10.9% BB%. Furthermore, his 24.5% K% wasn't bad for a 21-year-old at Double-A, and his 11.9% SwStr% suggested that swing-and-miss wasn't a significant issue for him.
The Dodgers sent Pages back to Tulsa for the 2023 season, and he responded well, hitting .284/.430/.495 with three homers and seven steals over 142 PAs. His HR/FB declined to 7.9%, but he still hit tons of flies (47.5% FB%) and demonstrated superlative plate discipline with a 17.6% BB%, 22.5% K%, and 9.5% SwStr%. Pages' .364 BABIP was likely more noise than signal considering his FB%, but the Dodgers promoted him to Triple-A (Oklahoma City) regardless.
Unfortunately, Pages tore the labrum in his left shoulder during his first Triple-A game and missed the remainder of the season. He made up for lost time at the beginning of the 2024 season, slashing .371/.452/.694 with five homers and two steals in 73 PAs. His plate discipline was great with an 11% BB%, 17.8% K%, and 10.1% SwStr%, and the Pacific Coast League inflated the HR/FB to 22.7% to go with his 44.9% FB%.
Pages probably won't light up the Statcast leaderboard with his exit velocities, but his ability to find his pitch and put it into the air should still produce a 25-30 HR pace. Dodger Stadium has the highest Statcast HR factor for RHB at 125, helping Pages' approach immensely.
He's been hitting seventh or eighth, but the Dodgers offense is weak outside the trio of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman. If Pages produces like expected, he should be promoted to at least fifth and see his counting stats benefit from his star teammates.
Pages had a low success rate on SB attempts in the minors, so he probably won't run much with the Dodgers. He'll also have a low BABIP given his quantity of fly balls. However, he should work walks, hit homers, and pile up counting stats as he moves up L.A.'s lineup. His playing time is secure until Jason Heyward returns, and even then James Outman has done little to stay in the lineup over MLB.com's 93rd overall prospect.
Pages is a Champ in all formats.
Jonatan Clase (OF, SEA) - 19% Rostered
One look at Clase's scouting report will tell you why fantasy managers might be interested in him:
Clase has 80-grade speed and knows how to use it, going 55-for-65 (85%) on SB attempts in 2022 and 79-for-94 (84%) in 2023. That's a lot of bags!
Sadly, everything else about Clase's game is underwhelming. He's hitting an anemic .250/.286/.300 with two steals over 21 PAs as a Mariner, and the scouting report above doesn't offer much hope for power or average.
Similarly, Clase's MiLB resume is mixed at best. He first reached the high minors in 2023 with Double-A (Arkansas), slashing .222/.331/.396 with 13 HRs and 62 SB in 489 PAs. He worked his fair share of walks with a 13.1% BB% but struck out at a 28% clip. His 12.6% SwStr% suggests he shouldn't have struck out that often, but his .294 BABIP is a bigger issue.
Extremely fast guys tend to run high BABIPs since they can outrun grounders that are easy outs for most players. Clase didn't get the memo, running a 42% FB% better suited to a slugger like Pages than a speedster. His 11.2% HR/FB in pitcher-friendly Arkansas was decent, but the flies limited his batting average and SB opportunities.
Clase was promoted to Triple-A (Tacoma) for 2024 and responded well to the more offense-friendly environment, hitting .311/.396/.622 with two homers and three steals over 83 PAs. His SwStr% fell by nearly two full ticks to 10.8%, reducing his K% to 22.6%. He also kept walking with a 13.2% BB%. He kept hitting flies with a 41.2% FB% despite a 14.3% HR/FB below average for Triple-A, though.
Clase offers SB upside but seems like the type with just enough pop to get himself into trouble by chasing home runs. Seattle is not a favorable environment for players with marginal power, so a slash-and-dash approach would probably be better for him.
His strong BB% rates are unlikely to appear in the Show since MLB pitchers know walking him is effectively a double. The team is also hitting Clase eighth or ninth, positions offering minimal opportunity for counting stats.
Clase is a viable desperation play if you need steals, but he's probably not anything more than a fourth outfielder. That makes him a Chump.
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