Champ or Chump: Drake Baldwin and Marcelo Mayer Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

May 27, 2025

Are Drake Baldwin and Marcelo Mayer fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value.

Just when you think the prospect pipeline might dry up for a week, the Red Sox bring up Marcelo Mayer to play third base. Mayer has a lot of hype surrounding him, but is he the savior that Boston and fantasy managers have been searching for?

Drake Baldwin faced similar questions back on Opening Day, and Atlanta's early-season struggles were partially blamed on him. Baldwin has since heated up dramatically, so what will he offer the Braves and fantasy managers moving forward?

Let's take a closer look at two intriguing rookies!

Drake Baldwin (C, Atlanta Braves)

24% Rostered

Baldwin's slow start is ancient history now as he has a .340/.385/.536 line with five homers in 104 plate appearances. His .364 BABIP and 18.5 percent HR/FB suggest luck has been on the 24-year-old's side, but the 2022 third-round pick should remain fantasy viable throughout the season.

Scouts didn't love Baldwin as much as you might expect. Here are his FanGraphs scouting grades:

Baldwin ranked 12th overall despite no scores above 55, indicating just how little the baseball world expects from catchers. Slightly plus power with a slightly plus hit tool will play even with slightly below average defense and no speed. Of course, Baldwin's advanced approach isn't captured by any of the traditional tools.

He first reached the high minors with Double-A (Mississippi) in 2023, slashing .321/.390/.396 with a homer in 59 PAs. A .390 BABIP skewed his statistics, but his 10.2 percent BB% and 18.6 percent K% suggested strong plate discipline. He logged 12 more PAs with a homer for Triple-A (Gwinnett) but returned to Mississippi to begin 2024.

Baldwin was okay, hitting .244/.313/.337 with four homers in 217 PAs. His plate discipline remained strong with a 9.2 percent BB% against an 18.9 percent K%, but a .285 BABIP doomed his batting average. His 7.3 percent HR/FB was also disappointing, though Baseball America gives Mississippi a 52 HR factor for lefties from 2022-2023. It's where HRs go to die.

The Braves promoted Baldwin to Gwinnett, and he rewarded their confidence with a .298/.407/.484 line with 12 HR in 334 PAs. His 15.6 percent BB% nearly matched his 16.2 percent K%, and both metrics were supported by his 8.7 percent SwStr% and 23.7 percent chase rate.

His power also jumped with a 20.7 percent HR/FB, though his 25.9 percent FB% was too low to take full advantage. Part of the power spike was leaving Mississippi behind, though Gwinnett's 69 HR factor for LHB hardly represents a hitter's haven. Baldwin's .327 BABIP was probably slightly inflated, but nothing ridiculous. It was a legitimate breakout season.

Baldwin was widely expected to debut for the Braves this year, but a preseason injury to Sean Murphy gave Baldwin an Opening Day opportunity. We shouldn't expect him to maintain a .364 BABIP, and his 18.5 percent HR/FB is masking a relatively light 32.9 percent FB%.

Still, expected stats buy Baldwin's performance with a .323 xBA and .530 xSLG. His low FB% and 3.7 percent IFFB% support a high BABIP, and his contact skills have been superlative with a 14.4 percent K% backed by a 7.8 percent SwStr%. Best of all, his MiLB performance suggests Baldwin might improve on his 6.7 percent BB% and 31 percent chase rate.

Baldwin even hit second in his last two games, suggesting Atlanta is willing to give him an important lineup role despite a veteran team. He was hitting fifth before that, giving him some RBI opportunities at the expense of runs scored.

The most frustrating thing about Baldwin in fantasy is his limited playing time. Murphy is healthy again, and the Braves won't relegate their $73 million man to a pure backup role no matter how well Baldwin performs. Instead, the pair is splitting the workload roughly 50/50 with a slight edge toward Baldwin.

In one-catcher leagues, you probably need someone who plays more often. In two-catcher formats, Baldwin is ideal as a guy who won't hurt you even if his pop regresses a little. Considering his catcher eligibility and strong performance to date, Baldwin is a Champ who should be rostered in more than a quarter of leagues.

Marcelo Mayer (SS/3B, Boston Red Sox)

25% Rostered

Mayer has two hits in eight PAs so far in his MLB career, which is way too small a sample size to draw conclusions from. The 22-year-old was selected fourth overall in 2021, but his tools aren't as loud as you might expect. Here's his FanGraphs scouting report:

Mayer is considered below the MLB average in hit tool, game power, speed, and fielding right now, with only his raw power reaching 60 in the future. MiLB.com tells a similar story:

This scouting report is more bullish on Mayer's hit tool and glove work, but the write-up isn't as positive. It notes that Mayer has a "propensity for groundball contact" that will "cap his power output at 20-25 HR per year," limiting his fantasy appeal.

Mayer has also struggled with injuries since he was drafted, missing time due to his wrist in 2022, his shoulder in 2023, and a lumbar strain sustained in August last season. As a result, his MiLB resume is limited.

He first reached the high minors with Double-A (Portland) in 2023 and fared poorly with a .189/.254/.355 line with six homers and four steals in 190 PAs. Mayer was caught stealing three times for a success rate of 57 percent, and his 25.8 percent K% likely undersold the swing-and-miss in his game with a 14.9 percent SwStr%.

Mayer's .220 BABIP was ripe for positive regression, and his 7.9 percent BB% was solid, but his 11.1 percent HR/FB was low for someone with power. Portland has a 113 HR factor for LHB per Baseball America, so the lack of pop was especially disappointing.

Mayer returned to Portland in 2024 and fared much better: .307/.370/.480 with eight homers and 13 steals across 335 PAs. He was only caught twice for a much more palatable success rate of 87 percent, and his 19.7 percent K% was much improved, even though his 13.5 percent SwStr% only improved slightly.

Mayer's .367 BABIP was likely unsustainable, though his 9 percent BB% was an improvement over 2023. The bigger question was his 12.9 percent HR/FB, which likely would've been well below average without Portland propping it up.

Mayer also demonstrated some troubling splits. He tattooed fastballs for a 1.019 OPS, but struggled against all non-fastballs with a .690 OPS. MLB pitchers will be aware of this weakness and prepared to exploit it.

Likewise, Mayer had a significant platoon split with an .896 OPS vs. RHP and .674 vs. LHP. Boston could solve this problem by using Mayer in a strict platoon role, though that would limit his playing time and fantasy value. Otherwise, Mayer could be neutralised by southpaws.

Mayer graduated to Triple-A (Worcester) to begin this season, and he hit .271/.347/.471 with nine homers and two steals in 193 PAs. He wasn't caught stealing, though that's mostly because he stopped running. Mayer's .296 BABIP was reasonable, and his HR/FB increased to 18.8 percent. Worcester's 105 HR factor for LHB is lower than Portland's, but it is still hitter-friendly.

The optimist will point to Mayer's plate discipline. His 10.4 percent BB% and 19.7 percent K% were supported by his 24.6 percent chase rate and 10 percent SwStr%, suggesting he figured something out.

Mayer was a shortstop on the farm, though he played some second base following the Rafael Devers debacle in anticipation of Kristian Campbell moving to 1B. Now, he'll play every day at third base with Alex Bregman (quadriceps) on the IL.

The good news is that he'll start with SS eligibility and quickly add 3B in fantasy, making him versatile. The downside is that he'll be learning a new position, expending time and energy that otherwise could've gone into hitting.

Mayer hit sixth in each of his first two games, suggesting the Red Sox may be reluctant to trust him with an important lineup role immediately. He stopped running this year and only has the pop for about 20 homers over a full season, so Mayer lacks loud fantasy tools.

He'll probably be Boston's third baseman for the next two months or so, giving Mayer value in deeper formats where playing time is king. However, the hype overshadows his skill set in standard leagues. This Chump needs more experience to unlock his fantasy potential.

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