WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 14 (2025)

December 6, 2025

Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 14 of 2025. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 14 of the 2025 fantasy football season. We're close to the fantasy football playoffs, with a large sample of the offensive and defensive advanced metrics. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. We're using a similar data-driven process to quantify the offensive and defensive matchups based on underlying metrics.

The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.

Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

The WR/CB Matchup Chart is back again for 2025! You can find it below! We'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.

We'll have a weekly matchup score, calculated by adjusting the scores by subtracting the defensive number from the offensive one. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way. With more data from the 2025 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.

We're at a point in the season where we can understand a player's role and usage based on the underlying metrics, which should inform how to project players moving forward. Players can underperform and outperform in a given matchup based on luck and skill factors. There are multiple layers to consider in these matchups, especially since team defenses tend to shift their coverages based on the opposing offenses.

How to Use The WR/CB Chart

WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical

Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 14 sorted alphabetically. The Panthers, Patriots, Giants, and 49ers are on bye in Week 14. We also have players marked differently to indicate a new (red shaded), injured player (red text), and slot coverage (bold text) to monitor. I also noted the magenta colored players as ones that the teams list as safeties, but they tend to cover receivers in the slot.

We added additional team-level metrics to the formula to account for team context. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers indicate a favorable matchup (or the defender allows a high rate on the given metric).

The visual below shows offenses by the Arizona Cardinals and the Dallas Cowboys.

The visual below shows offenses from the Denver Broncos to the Los Angeles Chargers.

The visual below shows offenses from the Las Vegas Raiders to the Seattle Seahawks.

The visual below shows offenses from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the Washington Commanders.

Best Projected Week 14 WR/CB Matchups

Worst Projected Week 14 WR/CB Matchups

Week 14 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Christian Watson vs. Jaylon Johnson

Watson and Romeo Doubs have been the Packers' primary two outside wide receivers, running a route over 75 percent of the time. Doubs and Watson have nearly identical first-read target shares, yet Watson bests Doubs in air yards share. Watson has been more efficient, recording a team-high 2.39 yards per route run among the healthy options.

Jordan Love was efficient in Week 13 against the Lions, posting his fourth-best completion rate over expected (CPOE) in 2025. The Bears' defense deploys man coverage at the ninth-highest rate while allowing the 17th-most fantasy points per dropback. When they use zone coverage (No. 23), the Bears allow the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback.

Watson (29 percent) and Dontayvion Wicks (31 percent) tend to earn targets at the highest rate against man coverage, with Doubs close behind (25 percent). Surprisingly, Watson has been productive against zone coverage, as he typically wins against man coverage. That's notable because the Bears' defense tends to use more zone coverage when opposing offenses attack them deep downfield (20+ yards).

The Bears' defense allows the fifth-most fantasy points per dropback when using zone coverage and the third-most when using man coverage on deep passes of 20 or more yards, as seen in the visual above. Guess who garners a high rate of targets and produces well on deep passes? That's Watson, who leads the Packers with a 50 percent target per route rate while producing 6.85 yards per route run on deep passes.

Doubs has also been productive, with a 28 percent target rate and 3.53 yards per route run on deep passes. However, Watson remains Love's first read often, given the 47.6 percent first-read target share when targeted deep. One way to limit deep passing success is to use more two-high looks, which the Bears tend to employ (No. 10). When they do, the Bears' defense gives up the 15th-most fantasy points per dropback.

Watson leads the team with 2.39 yards per route run, yet only an 18 percent target rate and 20.4 percent first-read target share against two-high coverages. Besides Doubs's 25 percent target rate, 2.03 yards per route run, and 22.2 percent first-read target share versus two-high looks, Matthew Golden was the only other Packers' pass catcher averaging over 2.00 yards per route (2.27).

Watson projects to face Jaylon Johnson, who allows the 18th-most fantasy points per route run and the most yards per route. In the past, Johnson was one of the Bears' best cornerbacks, but we have a small sample of 32 coverage snaps due to injuries. The risky part of a Packers' pass-catcher involves the team's run-heavy approach in neutral scripts, ranking 21st in pass rate (51 percent) since Week 9.

The Packers are projected as 6.5-point favorites, though we expect a competitive divisional matchup against the Bears.

Chris Olave vs. Jacob Parrish

Olave has been seeing WR1-type usage, evidenced by his 17.7 expected fantasy points per game, ranking sixth among all pass catchers with 25 routes. Unfortunately, there have been offensive inefficiencies due to Olave's team context. That's evident by Olave's negative yards per target over expected (YPTOE). Olave leads the team in a significant margin in first-read target share and air yards.

Olave faces a Buccaneers' defense that allows the most fantasy points per dropback when using zone coverage. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers allow the fifth-most fantasy points per dropback against man coverage (No. 13). Olave earns a target on 26 percent of his routes against man and zone coverage, with more yards per route versus zone (1.91). Without Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson remains the only reliable pass catcher.

Specifically, the Buccaneers' pass defense deploys single-high looks at the fourth-highest rate, yet they've given up the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback. Olave thrives against single-high coverages. He garners a 30 percent target rate, 35.5 percent first-read target share, and 2.35 yards per route run. The visual below shows the Saints' pass catchers against single-high coverage.

Johnson ranks second behind Olave in target rate (23 percent), first-read target share (22 percent), and yards per route run (1.58) against single-high looks. Olave has been playing more in the slot (47 percent) since Week 9, and the Buccaneers' defense allows the fourth-most PPR/G to the slot.

He projects to face up against Jacob Parrish, the Buccaneers' primary slot cornerback. Parrish allows the ninth-most fantasy points per route and the 11th-highest yards per route. Among qualified cornerbacks and safeties covering the slot, Parrish allows the 19th-highest yards per slot coverage snap.

With the Saints as 8.5-point underdogs, there should be plenty of passing volume for Olave to smash in a soft matchup. Olave has WR1-type usage, yet he might not be valued like one.

Adonai Mitchell vs. Jack Jones

All it took for Mitchell to be unlocked was for the Colts to trade him to the Jets while Garrett Wilson was not healthy. Jokes aside, Tyrod Taylor has been helping the Jets' passing offense, a statement we probably didn't expect in 2025. Since Week 11, Mitchell ranks ninth in target share (30 percent), first in air yards share, and 17th in expected fantasy points per game.

The season-long numbers don't do Mitchell justice, but he remains a per-route king, especially in targets and yards per route. Since Week 11, Mitchell leads the Jets with a 41.8 percent first-read target share, 30 percent target per route rate, and 1.88 yards per route run, as seen below. The first-read target rate and target per route rate alone hint at Mitchell's potential.

The Dolphins' pass defense deploys zone coverage at the 10th-highest rate while allowing the third-most fantasy points per dropback. Specifically, the Dolphins tend to use two-high looks (No. 13), yet give up the third-highest fantasy points per dropback. Interestingly, the Dolphins have been allowing the 26th-most PPR/G to receivers lined up out wide, where Mitchell plays most often.

Mitchell tends to produce better and draw more targets per route against man coverage. That's evident in Mitchell's 43 percent target rate and 2.23 yards per route run versus man, compared to a 24 percent target rate and 2.15 yards per route against zone.

The visual above shows the Jets' pass catchers and their advanced stats against zone coverage since Week 11. When we filter by zone coverage since Week 11, when Mitchell played with the Jets, he led the team with a 43.3 percent first-read target share, 26 percent target rate, and 2.19 yards per route run. That's WR1-type usage, though that might be the peak.

Mitchell projects to face Jack Jones, though it might be more of a neutral matchup when considering the full-season data. However, we want to trust the usage for Mitchell. He faces Jones, who allows the 52nd-most fantasy points per route and the 82nd-most yards per route. Taylor continues to target Mitchell downfield on his first read at a high rate, potentially leading to spike weeks, though there will be inconsistencies.

Week 14 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

DeVonta Smith vs. Derwin James Jr.

Over the past two weeks, A.J. Brown has produced spike weeks, with 30.1 PPR/G while being uber-efficient with 11.8 fantasy points over expected (FPOE) per game. Meanwhile, Smith averaged 12.4 PPR/G and -2.4 FPOE/G in Weeks 12-13. That's a small sample since we've seen Smith overtake Brown in some games, though their season-long expected fantasy points per game have been relatively even.

The Chargers utilize zone coverage at the 11th-highest rate and limit opposing offenses to the lowest fantasy points per dropback. Specifically, the Chargers love using two-high looks at the third-highest rate, yet give up the 19th-highest fantasy points per dropback.

Smith leads the Eagles in yards per route run against zone coverage. However, he trails Brown in first-read targets (48.8 percent), yards per route run (3.59), and target rate (37 percent) over the past three games against zone coverage, as seen below. It's a small sample, but the gap in first-read targets shifted in Brown's favor rather than Smith's (24.4 percent).

When we filter by two-high looks across the season, Smith (32 percent) and Brown (29.3 percent) have similar first-read target shares. Smith leads yards per route run (2.15) against two-high looks, with Brown (1.52) and Dallas Goedert (1.62) close behind. We provide that context because Smith and Brown have been two of the top target earners, regardless of coverage.

The Chargers have been using safety Derwin James Jr. as their primary slot coverage player. James allows the 10th-lowest fantasy points per route run and the 13th-fewest yards per route. Among qualified cornerbacks and safeties, James allows the lowest yards per slot coverage snap (0.28), ahead of notable safeties like Kyle Hamilton (0.42) and Minkah Fitzpatrick (0.49).

That's where Smith tends to line up in the slot, over 54 percent of the time since Week 9 and nearly 58 percent across the season. Besides the Titans-Browns game, the Eagles-Chargers game projects as the second-lowest over/under at 40.5, tying with the Broncos and Raiders. It seems like a trickier matchup for Smith in Week 14.

Quentin Johnston vs. Quinyon Mitchell

With Justin Herbert undergoing hand surgery on his left hand, it might be concerning if he misses Week 14 against the Eagles. That's especially true because the Chargers have multiple injuries on their offensive line while allowing the fifth-highest pressure rate. The visual below shows the Chargers' pass catchers when Herbert faces pressure.

When Herbert faces pressure, he tends to look toward Ladd McConkey as his first read 34 percent of the time, with a team-high 20 percent target rate. Johnston remains the fourth option in target per route rate (nine percent) and first-read target share while producing a lowly 0.53 yards per route run.

Like McConkey, Johnston runs a high percentage of the team's routes, though McConkey, Johnston, and Keenan Allen have similar usage in 2025. Johnston might be a step below based on their expected fantasy points per game. The Eagles' pass defense tends to mix up their man (No. 16) and zone (No. 19) coverage.

That's notable because the Eagles allow the 16th-most fantasy points per dropback when using man coverage. Meanwhile, the Eagles' pass defense allows the 24th-most fantasy points per dropback when playing zone coverage. Johnston has been decent against man coverage, with a 21 percent target rate and 1.76 yards per route.

However, Johnston's advanced metrics have been brutal versus zone, with a 14 percent target rate and 1.16 yards per route run. Specifically, the Eagles' pass defense deploys two-high looks at the eighth-highest rate and allows the 25th-most fantasy points per dropback. Unsurprisingly, Johnston struggles against two-high looks, as seen below.

Johnston trails McConkey (25 percent) and Allen (23.2 percent) in first-read target share against two-high looks. Unfortunately, Johnston produces under one yard per route against two high, suggesting it might be a better matchup for Allen and McConkey. Johnston projects to face the Eagles' top cornerback Quinyon Mitchell.

Mitchell allows the 10th-lowest fantasy points per route and the 13th-fewest yards per route run. If Herbert misses Week 14, it will add to concerns about the Chargers' pass catchers, especially Johnston. We should expect the Eagles to bring pressure against a banged-up Chargers offensive line, potentially without Herbert, which could impact their entire offense in Week 14.

Darnell Mooney vs. Nick Emmanwori

Injury Update: Drake London has been ruled OUT

Without Drake London over the past two weeks, Mooney was second among the Falcons' primary pass catchers in yards per route run (1.87) and first-read target share. Mooney led the team in air yards share, yet Kyle Pitts Sr. was the primary target earner over the past two games.

London is an elite talent and target earner, while Mooney tends to be used like a WR3 or WR4, with potential regression in his favor. We can't stress how much Pitts has been used as a pass catcher in 2025, acting like the second or third-best pass catcher, not including Bijan Robinson.

That context is important because the Falcons face one of the toughest Seahawks' pass defenses. The Seahawks deploy zone coverage at the 12th-highest rate, while allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per dropback. Specifically, they use single-high looks at the 12th-highest percentage, yet give up the 31st-most fantasy points per dropback.

London and Robinson lead the Falcons in yards per route run and target rate against zone coverage. Mooney has been brutal against man (1.23) and zone (1.14) in yards per route run, yet targeted at a lower rate (14 percent) versus zone coverage. When we filter by single-high coverages, Mooney garners a 20 percent target rate, 22.6 percent first-read target share, and 1.34 yards per route run, as seen below.

Assuming the Falcons might be without London, it doesn't bode well for their passing offense since he has been an elite target earner and producer versus single-high coverages. Pitts might be a sneaky target against the Seahawks since they allow the 29th-most PPR/G to outside receivers, yet the fourth-most PPR/G to the tight end position.

Mooney has been running a route in the slot 38.2 percent of the time since Week 9, similar to London (37.4 percent), yet slightly behind David Sills V (42.3 percent). There's a good chance Mooney will play in the slot and out wide, especially if London misses Week 14. The Seahawks' pass defense allows the 15th-most PPR/G to slot receivers.

Rookie safety Nick Emmanwori has been the Seahawks' primary slot coverage player. Emmanwori allows the 53rd-fewest fantasy points per route and the 39th-lowest yards per route run. It's a risky play to rely upon Mooney as a WR3 or WR4 in lineups for Week 14.

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