Thursday Night Football Bets, Anytime TD Scorer, and Player Props - Week 14 Expert TNF Picks (2025)

December 4, 2025

Expert Week 14 Thursday Night Football bets, anytime TD scorer, and player prop predictions. Free TNF betting picks, anytime TD scorer, and player props for Week 14.

Thursday Night Football heads to Detroit, Mich., this week for a massive NFC matchup with major playoff implications between the 7-5 Detroit Lions and the 6-5-1 Dallas Cowboys. Both teams played one week ago on Thanksgiving Day, with the Cowboys pulling off a thrilling win over the Chiefs and the Lions falling at home to the Packers.

This game will dramatically swing the playoff odds for both teams. With a win, the Cowboys jump to a 35% chance and crater to just 8% with a loss. For Detroit, its odds range from 23% with a loss to 57% with a victory, according to Evan Kaplan of ESPN. So, this game will essentially be treated as a playoff game.

Can the Cowboys win their fourth straight to keep their playoff hopes alive, or will the Lions bounce back at home? Let's get to the picks!

Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread

Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Detroit Lions (-164 ML)

Over/Under (54.5)

Thursday night's matchup features the highest total of the week at 54.5. That's for good reason, with both offenses ranking among the elite in the league and neither defense showing much resistance, though the Cowboys' defense looks much better after trading for Quinnen Williams and getting DeMarvion Overshown back healthy.

Cowboys’ injury report ahead of Thursday night’s game against the Lions: pic.twitter.com/8Yy1LCN3uB

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 3, 2025

The Lions rate as the fifth-ranked offense by DVOA, narrowly ahead of the Cowboys at seventh. They both rank in the top four for points per game and the top three in yards per game. Detroit is banged up on the offensive side of the ball, however, and could be without star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) and right tackle Penei Sewell (shoulder), who are both listed as questionable.

Lions ruled out four players for Thursday night’s game vs. the Cowboys but are listing wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown as questionable. pic.twitter.com/mWgKuopFpZ

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 3, 2025

Detroit's winning streak after a loss will be tested again against a tough opponent. It has won 13 in a row dating all the way back to Week 9 of the 2022 season, which is tied for the third-longest streak in NFL history.

2025 Betting Trends:

• Against the Spread: DET 6-6, DAL 7-5
• As Home Team ATS: DET 3-3
• As Away Team ATS: DAL 4-2
• Over Game Total: DET 7-5, DAL 8-4

Thursday Night Football Game Picks

Digging into the matchup, these teams have faced each other three times since Dan Campbell became the head coach in 2021, with the Lions holding a 2-1 edge. Their most recent game in Week 6 last season was a blowout as the Lions won 47-9 in Dallas. Dak Prescott is arguably playing the best ball of his career, but that game was one of the worst.

Prescott threw two interceptions and took four sacks as the Cowboys didn't even score a touchdown. He finished with a 10.2 QBR, which ranked 528th out of 547 quarterback performances. On the flip side, Jared Goff was as efficient as ever, completing 18-of-25 passes for 315 yards and three touchdowns, resulting in a 15.0 adjusted yards per attempt.

There have only been five games where a quarterback had a 15.0 AY/A or higher on 25 or more pass attempts since the start of last season, and Goff accounts for three of them, according to Stathead.

Both teams look very different a season later, however, with Dallas featuring Prescott playing at an MVP level, the most lethal wide receiver duo in football, and a legitimate running game to complement them.

The Lions lead the league in man coverage this season at 42.8%, and have leaned into it even more recently. They have posted two of their three highest man-coverage rates of the season over the last three games, with 56.3% versus the Packers and 59% against the Giants, per Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Adjusted EPA/play + PFF Blend through Week 13

The Cowboys having a historically bad defense for the first half of the season might be the biggest reason Dak Prescott isn't the MVP front-runner

Also lol at places 8 and 9 pic.twitter.com/Ss1YI5bgJ2

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 3, 2025

That's a dangerous recipe against this Dallas offense. Prescott has the third-most passing yards (916) with the second-highest highly accurate throw rate in the league (61.9%). Pickens leads the league in receiving yards against man by a wide margin, posting 463 yards, with Puka Nacua being the next closest at 317.

The difference between Pickens and Nacua is nearly the same as the difference between Nacua and DeVonta Smith, who ranks 29th, per Fantasy Points Data Suite.

The Lions have recently leaned more into their best player in superstar running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Three of the six highest snap shares of his career have come in the past three weeks, and he's averaging 22 touches for 165.4 total yards per game with three touchdowns. David Montgomery is fine, but Gibbs needs to be the focal point of the offense, especially with the possibility of St. Brown being out.

We'll take the points and ride with the red-hot Cowboys. And we have to take the over in this game, as I'm not expecting many stops on either side.

The Picks: Dallas Cowboys +3 (-110), Over 54.5 (-105)

Thursday Night Football Player Props

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Jahmyr Gibbs To Record 125+ Rushing and Receiving Yards (+114)

The Lions have been feeding their best player recently. Gibbs is arguably the most dynamic player in the league with the ball in his hands. The Cowboys' run defense has improved lately with their trade-deadline acquisitions and as they've gotten healthier.

But they also haven't faced a runner like Gibbs yet, and I expect the superstar back to be heavily involved in the pass game if St. Brown is ultimately ruled out. We'll play his combo of rushing and receiving in a game where Detroit should move the ball at will.

George Pickens Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Pickens has been the best receiver in football against man coverage this season, and no defense plays more man than the Lions. Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard could opt to switch things up with the nightmare matchup on tap, or he could stick with what his team's identity has been all season. Pickens wins against good zone coverage, also. Either way, this is a good number for the star wideout.

George Pickens has been on another level this year -- and so was this play 🔥 @wingstop pic.twitter.com/VthrOrelrr

— NFL (@NFL) December 4, 2025

Tom Kennedy Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

INJURY UPDATE: Amon-Ra St. Brown is ACTIVE vs. Cowboys

We're expecting St. Brown to ultimately not play and Kennedy to benefit in his absence. The slot receiver hauled in all four targets for 36 yards in his absence last week on Thanksgiving. With the Cowboys' zone-heavy defensive approach, Kennedy should be able to find the soft spots in the middle of the field and have a productive day.

Thursday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Bets

Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown (+145)

Ferguson has been the favorite target for Prescott down near the end zone. His 10 targets inside the 10-yard line are the fourth most in the league. The 26-year-old nearly came down with an unbelievable touchdown grab last week against the Chiefs, but was just narrowly ruled out of bounds.

#DallasCowboys TE Jake Ferguson after having his TD reversed on Thanksgiving after getting the same foot down twice in the end zone.

“If I catch the ball on our own [1-yard line], and I hop on my left foot all the way down and score. That isn’t a touchdown?” pic.twitter.com/WDSXaCKvHk

— 105.3 The FAN (@1053thefan) December 3, 2025

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