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Nick Mariano's 8 breakout players and potential league-winning picks for 2025. His top breakout candidates include Calvin Ridley, Keaton Mitchell, and more.
We often hear the term "league-winner" in fantasy football, but what does it mean? Many use it to describe late-round picks that yielded juicy profit compared to their average draft position. We saw Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams snag those honors in 2023, with last year supplying the likes of Bucky Irving.
However, a league-winner can also be an early-round pick who is underpriced and sets a strong foundation. Even just a few picks can create a massive buying opportunity in the early rounds and give you a great chance at being overweight on a star pillar. Scooping up Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Derrick Henry last year led to many championships!
With that in mind, I've selected eight league-winners that are a blend of early-round and mid-round picks. Proceed to find out why Justin Fields, Drake Maye, Saquon Barkley, Keaton Mitchell, Calvin Ridley, George Pickens, Joshua Palmer, and Jake Ferguson are my eight league-winners for the 2025 fantasy football campaign.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
- Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
- Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
- Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Kicker (K) fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets
I have plenty of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in my portfolio. However, that isn’t groundbreaking or indicative of a value break with ADP, so we’ll move on to my options if I miss on the elites. I'll save my one early-round freebie for another guy.
Fields may start slipping in drafts as murmurs over his poor preseason throws spread, but you’re buying the rushing production. Even in that frightful 2023 Bears campaign, his 18.4 fantasy points per game tied Patrick Mahomes for a top-12 figure.
Last year, he was the sixth-best fantasy QB at 19.1 FPPG through Week 6, until the Steelers turned to Russell Wilson. Now, one can’t sit here and meme on the Steelers’ offense without acknowledging that the Jets have faced similar struggles.
But they’ve invested in their offensive line, got a sure-handed tight end prospect in Mason Taylor, and have Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall (for now) to give Fields a top-heavy receiving room.
You can hate on Fields the passer and even prefer not to watch him play, but the box scores and past fantasy production point to an undervalued QB for us whenever the starting job is his.
Justin Fields preseason so far:
3.9 air yards/att
ranks #85-of-87 QBs
only 1-of-9 attempts went 10+ yards downfield
(11% = #85-of-87)
despite that low depth...
only completed 44% of att
#77-of-87
he scrambled on 25% of dropbacks
#1-of-87
didn't take any sacks
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 18, 2025
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
Maye scored the 14th-most fantasy points between Weeks 6-17 (his starting window) and averaged 16.8 FPPG despite a horrid offensive environment. The rookie played behind a porous offensive line with Hunter Henry as his leading receiver.
I like Henry, but not as a No. 1 option! His leading running back, Rhamondre Stevenson, also coughed up seven fumbles. Experiments with Ja'Lynn Polk, Javon Baker, and Tyquan Thornton never yielded positive results. And the 22-year-old still stepped in with a 66.6% completion rate and a 54-421-2 rushing line!
Now, we’ve got Josh McDaniels back in his comfort zone as the New England offensive coordinator for a Mike Vrabel-led team. They drafted with a clear intent to surround Maye for success, snagging tackle Will Campbell at fourth overall to protect the blindside.
They then used the 69th overall pick on interior lineman Jared Wilson, and brought in C Garrett Bradbury and RT Morgan Moses, and that’s just the line! They also drafted a future star in RB TreVeyon Henderson and took another WR shot with Kyle Williams, with Stefon Diggs being the premier free-agent addition.
Sure, he’s on the wrong side of 30 to be coming off a major knee injury, but he hasn’t missed any camp! The defense won’t win any games, so let’s see what Maye 2.0 can do.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
I did this last year with Robinson, because it’s not as much fun if I can’t discuss foundational picks. I’ve frequently been taking Barkley when faced with picks 2-6, and have him as one of my top-three RBs in the best ball portfolio.
That's hard to do with a R1 pick! I won't be jamming this piece with loads of layup, early picks, but this one defines many of my drafts. Barkley's outlook feels like the overthinking has swung too far, though I do think "home leagues" will see him slide less compared to top-heavy tourneys.
We can grant that Barkley is unlikely to score as many long touchdowns and faces some workload concerns while still landing at an elite production projection. Barkley’s 2024 also looked like a substantial outlier when put up against the lowly seven total TDs between D'Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell in ‘23.
But Miles Sanders, Gainwell, and Boston Scott had 18 TDs next to Jalen Hurts’ 13 in ‘22. The discourse is always oriented around what the Tush Push and Hurts take away, or perhaps more passing, but Barkley’s electrifying ‘24 still had 13 rush TDs to Hurts’ 14.
Don’t forget that variance can nudge the other way as well, with Barkley scoring 18-20 and Hurts around 8-10. In a similar vein, you can accept that replicating 5.8 yards per carry is a long shot. But both Swift and Sanders averaged above 4.5 YPC in this offense thanks to an incredible O-line that remains largely intact.
Mix in an exceptional defense and overall coaching structure/philosophy that should keep the Eagles ahead for the ground-and-pound attack, and Barkley comes out looking rosy. And most of these guys have durability concerns, with Henry and Christian McCaffrey pushing into the middle of the first round on several platforms.
Keaton Mitchell, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Mitchell looked incredible in Baltimore’s preseason game against the Colts, rushing for 68 yards and a TD on nine carries. This included a pair of ~20-yard bursts and multiple short gains where he shrugged off contact and fought forward.
The knee injury was brutal, but seeing this burst tells me that the wheels are back. Speaking of 20-yard bursts, he had seven totes of 20+ yards on just 47 total carries as a rookie. Mitchell’s acceleration is incredible, which helped him turn in 396 yards (8.4 YPC) with a 9-93-0 receiving line back in ‘23.
He’s also had zero NFL fumbles on 72 touches. Several scouting folks also pointed out that Mitchell ran more decisively in the small preseason sample.
His breakaway speed had yielded a tendency to drift outside into space, sometimes prematurely, but every additional moment draws defenders to the middle scrum. Patience and vision come with time, coaching, and overall experience. This is how he goes from relying on raw talent to being a polished runner with even higher chances at those big plays.
Henry is the Big Dog for a reason. No one can sit there and say that Mitchell will outright usurp King Henry. However, would Baltimore like to trim a few touches off of Henry’s total before the playoff push? Is Mitchell more dynamic than Justice Hill? Could the refined kickoff return rules give us another sneaky avenue to value?
I'd say yes to all of those questions. (Which is why I asked myself that, obviously.) There’s standalone value given Baltimore’s RB-oriented approach, with massive contingent value should Henry be unavailable.
Keaton Mitchell said that he reached a top speed of 22.4 mph at The Castle this spring, beating his rookie mark of 22.2 mph. His knee is "feeling good" and he's excited to contribute this season, especially as a kick returner. pic.twitter.com/wj0DQGuJsv
— Nikhil Mehta (@nikknowsball) June 6, 2025
*I'm using a PHI and BAL RB here, but I just want exposure to those backfields. Henry, Mitchell, Barkley, and Will Shipley are my four most-drafted RBs thus far.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans
Ridley is in a strong position to run back his strong stat line from 2020 (90-1,374-9 in 15 games) with Cameron Ward at the helm and an overall chill on Tennessee’s perception. The Will Levis experiment was extremely volatile, with Ridley only catching 64-of-120 targets, but he still topped 1,000 yards thanks to just enough long shots.
Calvin Ridley led the NFL in percentage of his team’s air yards share (44.6%) last year. He now plays with the aggressive and big armed Cam Ward who had 9.8 yards per target in 2024 📈 pic.twitter.com/0MrmeDsyKM
— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) April 25, 2025
The overall poor play led to just four receiving touchdowns, however, which creates a buying window. (He did sneak in an 8-55-1 rushing line!) Levis was great for social media memes, though not for sustained drives.
He doesn’t turn 31 until December, but he missed most of 2021 and all of ‘22, and turned 24 in his rookie year. The odometer on his legs doesn’t match what you’d feel for a guy entering his 30s.
His target competition takes the form of two uninspiring vets (Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson) and then a trio of intriguing rookies (Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike, and Xavier Restrepo). Tyjae Spears is also dinged up to start the season.
Last year’s 22% target rate is well within reach, and with higher-quality looks as well. (That rate climbed to 26% after DeAndre Hopkins was traded.) Plus, he should enjoy more TD equity with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s insane 28% TD rate outlier in the rear-view mirror.
There’s always risk with a rookie QB, but there are few true, proven No. 1 receivers at this price point. We know that Ridley can turn in the big plays. If Ward proves able to lay easy short/intermediate routes up for Ridley, then the highlights won't have to do as much of the heavy lifting.
Joshua Palmer, WR, Buffalo Bills
The Bills saw fit to give Palmer a three-year, $29 million contract to bolster their WR corps for Allen. He joins a team that was just tied for second in the league with 65 total touchdowns
Palmer just turned in a 0.132 average separation score, which ranked 19th among all players with 150 or more routes run in 2024, per Fantasy Points Data. However, most of the top 25 were well above Palmer’s 0.17 targets per route run figure, and that’s what we’re looking at for improvement in Buffalo.
That’s not to say the Bills need to become this voluminous passing attack, though we’ll point out that Allen had nearly 100 fewer pass attempts last season compared to the previous four campaigns. There’s an opportunity to quickly climb the leverage ladder for Palmer.
Not only are there 91 vacated targets between Mack Hollins, Amari Cooper, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but Khalil Shakir already has a high-ankle sprain. Keon Coleman has an intriguing ceiling, though his five drops and ~50% catch rate make him volatile. Dalton Kincaid has yet to make a leap.
Mix in expected TD regression for James Cook after he exploded for 16 scores after only two in ‘23, and that’s another handful of tuddies up for grabs. Perhaps the rushing attack maintains a stranglehold on this team’s red-zone plan, but there’s enough smoke here for me to target Palmer.
George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys
The perception of Pickens feels as though it has already solidified in most minds. He’s been around for three years and has made headlines with some sideline antics, leaving many with this general impression of the 24-year-old.
However, many smart folks (and I) would implore you to truly push through the thought exercise of what Pickens' joining Dallas could mean. This is a talented wideout who has managed to average 16.3 yards per catch and nearly 1,000 yards per season in the face of, let’s be nice and say, “organizational adversity.”
He was navigating QBs such as Kenny Pickett in systems created by offensive coordinators like Matt Canada and Arthur Smith. Yet he still posted a perfect 99.9 PFF grade on targets of 20 or more yards last year! And he won't get No. 1 defensive backs this year.
It is little surprise that despite his big-play ability, Pickens never scored more than five TDs in any of his first three seasons. Well, Jalen Tolbert just scored seven TDs on a mere 79 targets, even with Cooper Rush starting for half of the year.
By the way, Dak Prescott has a top-5 Deep PFF Passing Grade over the last three years. Mix in a dome environment and you’ve got a stew going. Outside of taking Tee Higgins’ spot in Cincinnati, it’s difficult to picture a greater pendulum swing than joining CeeDee Lamb in a pass-happy Cowboys environment.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
Let’s keep it right there in Dallas. Much like the Cowboys franchise, Ferguson had a 2024 season to forget. Scoring zero touchdowns and struggling for volume in the games that followed Prescott’s season-ending hamstring injury, we’re here to buy the dip.
Would you believe that Ferguson still averaged 10.2 PPR points over his first nine weeks of play with Prescott? That’s a top-10 TE mark, and in a tight orbit of his 10.4 PPR average in 2023 (also a top-10 tally). He's also simply a beast once he gets the ball.
Avoided tackle leaders at TE: (2023-24 combined)
22 - George Kittle
26 - Trey McBride
27 - Jonnu Smith
28 - David Njoku
32 - Jake Ferguson https://t.co/AuTx64oUNL— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 13, 2025
The 6-foot-5 TE is 26 years old and ready to take advantage of a plus passing scheme that lacks a reliable run complement or strong defense. Yes, I am also drafting plenty of Prescott, Javonte Williams, and Jaydon Blue. Trade Micah Parsons already and give us the Bengals' script!
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