Champ or Chump: Roman Anthony and Rafael Devers Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

Are Roman Anthony and Rafael Devers fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value.

What is going on in Boston right now? Boston's front office wanted to see top prospect Roman Anthony in the Show, so they asked Rafael Devers to try to learn first base to accommodate him. Communication between Devers and the team had deteriorated after the Alex Bregman signing, and Devers refused to learn 1B midseason. Wilyer Abreu got hurt, so Anthony was called up anyway.

It seemed like the situation sorted itself out for this year, but then the Red Sox shocked the world by trading their franchise cornerstone to San Francisco for two struggling pitchers, a couple of lottery tickets, and salary relief.

Anthony probably plays every day in Boston now, even after Abreu returns. Meanwhile, Devers has to learn a new city, league, and coast while a full-time return to third base seems unlikely. What can fantasy managers expect from the fallout of this trade? Let's find out!

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Roman Anthony (OF, Boston Red Sox)

61% Rostered

Anthony's big league career is off to a slow start as he has a .059/.158/.118 line in 19 plate appearances, but the sample is far shy of anything meaningful. Scouts love the top hitting prospect in the game, but that doesn't mean he's ready to replace Devers as the centerpiece of the Red Sox lineup.

Let's begin with Anthony's FanGraphs scouting report:

Huge power, plus speed, and a strong glove are the makings of a fantasy mainstay. His hit tool isn't the best, but it's expected to improve with time. If everything else clicks, 45 is good enough. As usual, MiLB.com is more optimistic about everything:

This report gives Anthony plus hit and power tools with decent speed and the defensive chops for at least a corner outfield spot, with short-term centerfield viability. It's easy to see why fans in Boston were clamoring for him.

Of course, scouting grades aren't a fantasy category. Anthony has done nothing but hit on the farm, suggesting he knows how to translate his tools into baseball production.

He first reached Double-A (Portland) in 2023, slashing .343/.477/.543 with a homer and three steals across 44 PA. It's a small sample, and his .393 BABIP reads fluky, but you're doing something right if your BB% (18.2 percent) exceeds your K% (13.6 percent). The only red flag was a 20.7 percent FB%, roughly half of what's expected from a slugger.

Anthony returned to Portland in 2024, hitting .269/.367/.489 with 15 homers and 16 steals over 376 PAs. His BABIP fell nearly 60 points to .336, while his K% doubled to 25.5 percent. That sounds alarming, but Anthony's SwStr% only went from 7.2 percent to 8.9 percent. The latter figure is excellent for a 20-year-old at Double-A, and nobody posts a .400 BABIP over a full season.

That doesn't mean everything was perfect. Anthony was caught stealing five times for a success rate of 76 percent, leaving him little room for error if he wants a green light in Boston. His FB% was also relatively low at 34.8 percent, though it was substantially higher than the prior season.

The Red Sox promoted Anthony to Triple-A (Worcester) midseason, and he responded with a .344/.463/.519 line with three homers and five steals in 164 PAs. His plate discipline was elite with identical 18.9 percent BB% and K% rates backed by a 22.3 percent chase rate and 8.2 percent SwStr%, suggesting an advanced approach.

His .424 BABIP was a small sample size, but his 23.8 percent FB% supports it somewhat. The bigger question is where his power went. A 23.8 percent FB% isn't high enough for a slugger, and his 12.5 percent HR/FB is low for a guy with 70-grade raw power. He was also caught stealing twice, for a success rate of 71 percent, reducing the likelihood of a green light at the MLB level.

Anthony returned to Worcester this season and did more of the same. He hit .288/.423/.491 with 10 HRs and three steals in 265 PAs. His plate discipline was superlative with a 19.2 percent BB% and 21.1 percent K% backed by chase rate (18.6 percent) and SwStr% (9.1 percent).

His HR/FB rebounded to 25.6 percent, but Anthony's 24.8 percent FB% was still too low. He was also caught stealing thrice for a success rate of 50 percent, so fantasy managers shouldn't count on many stolen bases moving forward.

Anthony was extremely young for his level throughout his time in the high minors, so his numbers are better than they appear. However, both environments are extremely hitter-friendly.

Per Baseball America, Portland had a 113 HR factor and 99 BABIP factor for LHB from 2022-2023. Worcester had a 105 HR factor and a 106 BABIP factor over the same period. The two variables roughly cancel each other out, allowing us to take Anthony's numbers at face value.

The Red Sox also seem committed to using Anthony regularly. Before the Devers trade, the team had three spots for four outfielders: Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Anthony. Moving Devers clears the DH slot, allowing the team to use all four nightly. Masataka Yoshida still doesn't fit on the roster, but he's just a sunk cost at this point.

Anthony has been hitting fifth since being called up, giving him a decent number of counting stat opportunities. He might move up to fourth now that Devers is gone, potentially giving him fantasy upside.

Overall, Anthony has an advanced plate approach that should help him establish a solid floor. His outstanding eye makes him particularly appealing in OBP leagues and formats that care about walks. His lineup position also has inherent fantasy value, especially in hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

However, he doesn't lift the ball often enough to access his plus-plus raw power in games yet, and he probably won't run very much. It's tough to make a fantasy impact in standard leagues without homers or steals, and the hype surrounding him is insane. Selling high on this Chump is probably the right move in redraft leagues, though keeper and dynasty gamers should wait for his development.

Rafael Devers (3B, San Francisco Giants)

99% Rostered

Devers had been killing it for Boston despite the drama, slashing .272/.401/.504 with 15 HRs in 334 PA before the trade. His 148 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) is 21 points higher than his career mark of 127, but he made some real changes to back up his performance.

First, Devers sports a career-high FB% of 40.4 percent, helping him access more of his power. Second, his 25.7 percent chase rate is a career-best, lending credence to his outstanding 16.8 percent BB%. Had Devers remained in Boston, he'd be well on his way to a career year.

That didn't happen. Most fantasy managers automatically discount Rockies when they leave Denver's thin air, but we should do the same for Red Sox. Fenway's 108 Baseball Savant park factor (2023-2025) for LHB is the second highest behind Coors Field, dramatically increasing hits (110) and doubles (143) while suppressing strikeouts (89).

The park's 90 HR factor is overwhelmed by everything else.

Devers took full advantage of Fenway, slashing .296/.420/.556 there and .246/.380/.446 on the road this season. He even hit more homers in Boston (nine) than on the road (six).

Devers's career numbers are similar with a .292/.362/.523 line at home and .266/.337/.498 on the road. He has more homers on the road (120) than at home (95), showing he isn't immune to park factors.

Usually, fantasy managers might trade a little batting average and a few doubles for homers, but Devers isn't heading to a neutral park. He's going to Oracle Park. Oracle's 95 park factor for LHB ties for second-to-last among MLB parks. Its 100 hits factor, 97 doubles factor, and 98 strikeouts factor are all worse than Fenway's.

Moreover, its 78 HR factor is one of the few lower than Fenway's.

Devers is projected to hit third in San Francisco's lineup, so he'll get all of the counting stat opportunities the Giants can muster. However, the Red Sox rank fifth in runs scored with 353 while San Francisco is 14th at 309. Devers is going from a great offense to a mid-tier one, likely hurting his R+RBI totals.

Perhaps most importantly, the trade doesn't solve the problem of where Devers plays. While currently injured, Matt Chapman is an outstanding defender who won't be leaving the hot corner anytime soon. The Giants have an opening at 1B, and maybe Devers would be more willing to move for a team that hasn't butchered prior communication with him. Or, perhaps he won't.

The Giants might use him as a full-time DH, theoretically inviting the same controversies that sent Devers to San Francisco in the first place.

Devers is a star, but his fantasy value takes a noticeable hit after this trade. He goes from a great park to a terrible one while trading an excellent offense for an average one. He'll also need to adapt to a new team, fan base, city, and league, with the lingering question of "where will he play?" hanging over everyone's head.

ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball spent three hours hyping Devers up as a "top-10 hitter in baseball at worst" and "a future Hall-of-Famer," but he doesn't look like either of those as a full-time DH in San Francisco. Fenway propped his numbers up just like Xander Bogaerts, and how is that working for San Diego?

The prudent move is selling this Chump while the prevailing wisdom discounts the impact of Oracle.

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