March 4, 2026
With two wins in the last four years of this event, there is no surprise to see Scottie Scheffler atop the betting board and DFS pricing. He has dominated the Arnold Palmer Invitational since making his debut in 2020, with an absurd +2.801 total strokes gained average over his last 16 rounds played at Bay Hill. His most overwhelming individual stats come from the driver, as the 29-year-old has averaged +1.025 in strokes gained off the tee. Interestingly, ball striking has been the lone inconsistency to begin this year. Moreso from the approach, but accuracy off the tee has certainly been evident as well. It clearly isn't stopping him from still being virtually a top-15 lock, but as the most expensive DFS player by a pretty wide margin, it almost has to be a top-3-or-bust mentality with him. And with some of the most important events coming up--including this week--it's probably time to expect him to return to his dominance soon.
--Todd McGillSource: Data Golf
March 4, 2026
After a slow start to the season for Xander Schauffele, he has begun figuring things out over his last couple of events. The 32-year-old finished T19 at Pebble Beach and posted a T7 finish the following week at the Genesis. It wasn't like he was far off to begin with, but things have certainly gotten more controlled as of late. He still hasn't been quite the same ball striker as his 2024 form, but he did manage to rank third on the week at Riviera in strokes gained from tee to green (+1.58). Bay Hill plays longer, but there is a similar correlation in approach distances between the two venues. Aside from the putting slump, he'll need to have better driving accuracy and par-5 performance to have a real chance. However, it's reasonable to expect he will better his current best tournament finish of T25.
--Todd McGillSource: Data Golf
March 4, 2026
After starting the season with four straight T11-or-better finishes, Si Woo Kim has now posted back-to-back results of T45 and T34. He'll look to get back to elite form at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he has played 10 times but has only finished inside the top 25 once, which was a T19 last year. Success at Bay Hill typically hinges on accuracy off the tee and strong long-iron approach play, areas where Kim excels. He ranks 15th in strokes gained off the tee (+0.569 per round), second on approach (+1.313), and fifth in driving accuracy. His ball striking is among the best on Tour, sitting third in proximity from 175-200 yards (24'8") and fourth from 200+ yards (39'6"), ranges that accounted for nearly half of approach shots here last year. The only concern is his putter, where he has lost over nine strokes in his last three events. If Kim can put together a decent week the flat stick, he remains an elite option at $9,200 on DraftKings.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 4, 2026
Ben Griffin withdrew from the Cognizant Classic prior to the start of last week's tournament but will tee it up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has competed here twice, finishing T14 in 2023 and T45 in 2025. With penalizing rough, success at Bay Hill typically hinges on accuracy off the tee and strong long-iron approach play. Griffin ranks 106th on approach (-0.119 strokes per round) and 159th in proximity from 200+ yards (57'11"), accounting for nearly 30% of approach shots last year. While his accuracy off the tee has been solid (30th), Griffin has struggled to return to the elite form we saw from him last year, with results sliding from T19 to T41 over his first five events. He's due for a rebound, but with a lot of strong options around his $8,700 DraftKings price, fantasy managers may want to hold off until he reverses these trends.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 4, 2026
Nico Echavarria took full advantage of a Shane Lowry collapse on Sunday at the Cognizant Classic, carding a bogey-free 66 to win the event by two strokes. He now heads to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he is making his tournament debut. Bay Hill typically rewards accuracy off the tee and strong long-iron play, areas where he has been decent. Echavarria ranks 91st in strokes gained off the tee (-0.010 per round), 61st on approach (+0.234), and 63rd in driving accuracy. He is also 84th in proximity from 175-200 yards and 77th from 200+, ranges that accounted for nearly half of all approach shots here last season. It's worth noting that before his win last week, Echavarria had just one made cut (T8 at Pebble Beach) in five events to start the year. His ball-striking upside is there, but with inconsistent form and no course history at Bay Hill, Echavarria is more likely a middle-of-the-pack option than a serious contender at $7,000 on DraftKings.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 4, 2026
Sam Burns has struggled to find consistency to start 2026, alternating strong finishes (T27, T6) with missed cuts in his first four events. After failing to make the weekend at the Genesis Invitational, he turns to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he has eight career starts but just one top-10 finish and the rest outside the top 30. Success at Bay Hill typically depends on accuracy off the tee and long-iron approach play, areas where Burns has been around average this year. He is 69th in strokes gained off the tee (+0.156 per round), 52nd on approach (+0.285) but just 108th in driving accuracy. He is also 88th in proximity from 175-200 yards, and 90th from 200+, distances that made up nearly half of all approaches here last season. His usually elite putting has also been off, losing strokes with the flat stick in three of four starts. Between inconsistent play and course history, fantasy managers should weigh their options carefully before playing him at his $8,000 DraftKings pricetag.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 4, 2026
Daniel Berger has been up and down to start 2026, highlighted by a T6 at the Sony Open but also a missed cut at The Genesis, and two additional finishes outside the top 50. He now heads to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he finished T15 last year. Bay Hill demands accuracy off the tee and strong long-iron play, areas where Berger has shown promise. He is 20th in strokes gained on approach (+0.652 per round), 54th in driving accuracy, 15th in proximity from 175-200 yards (28'0"), and 79th from 200+ (49'11%), distances that accounted for nearly half of all approaches here last year. Short game remains a concern for Berger, as he has lost nearly 12 strokes combined putting and around the green this season. Though he has gained strokes in this area in two of three trips to Bay Hill. If he can find a spark around the greens, Berger offers strong value at just $6,800 on DraftKings.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 3, 2026
This has perhaps been the longest that golf fans have been without seeing Justin Thomas inside the ropes of an official golf tournament. He last competed at the Ryder Cup last September, having undergone microdiscectomy surgery on his lower back shortly after to begin the recovering proccess as early as possible. With such a long layoff and a lone TGL match as the only competition he's seen in five months, there will inevitably be some rust to shake off. It's a tall task to make your first start at Bay Hill and do so with any confidence, which makes him an easy candidate to avoid for that reason alone. The former Tide golfer was not trending well from longer approach ranges to close out last season. Expecting anything from someone who is probably still familiarizing himself with how it feels to hold a club again is stressful business. Look for safer options this week.
--Todd McGillSource: Data Golf
March 3, 2026
After a whirlwind ending on the West Coast for Collin Morikawa that saw him secure his fifth PGA Tour victory at Pebble Beach and a T7 finish at Riviera, the 29-year-old is hitting this important stretch of golf in great form. He gained strokes on the greens in both of his last two starts. He's also leveled out his short game, which makes his overall game back to reaching levels seen when he was winning major championships. Since the beginning of the year, the former Cal Bear is up 20% in approach proximity over 200 yards (39'6"), putting him in the 84th percentile on the PGA Tour. He also has a powerful blend of power and accuracy going for him off the tee. If the switch-up in grass types doesn't throw a wrench in things, he should again be a major DFS contributor.
--Todd McGillSource: Data Golf
March 3, 2026
After the end of last year's regular season and the start of this new one, Tommy Fleetwood has been one of the most popular DFS plays. It will be no surprise to see him again be one of the most-owned players, but there is reason to be skeptical this week. While he doesn't have the worst track record at Bay Hill, it's certainly far from other names at the top of the board, who have continuously shown up at a layout that is among the highest on tour in predictive course history. He has also been subpar in approach play over 200 yards, with a -0.057 strokes gained per shot since the beginning of the year on both the PGA and DP World Tours. The Englishman has counteracted that with a tour-leading short game (+1.107 strokes gained around the green average). The problem isn't necessarily about having Fleetwood in a DFS lineup; it's committing to him beating the likes of Scheffler, McIlroy, and Henley--that is a big ask here.
--Todd McGillSource: Data Golf
March 3, 2026
Adam Scott was a feel good story last week at The Genesis Invitational. The Australian golfer had one bad round on Saturday but followed it up with a scorching 63 that vaulted him to a fourth place result. Scott has played pretty well in his four events this 2026. However, Bay Hill has been a place where he struggles often with par. Scott has been over par in three of his previous four appearances. His lack of birdie runs on the Florida course makes him tough to consider in DFS. Worse, his putter has kind of failed him early in events (30.25 putts per round - 149th). It is those starts which are troubling and can cause lost strokes at Bay Hill.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 3, 2026
Aldrich Potgieter, on the surface, seems to be a decent fit when it comes to Bay Hill. The American golfer hits some long drives (325.8 yds - 3rd) and comes off a T-5 at The Genesis Invitational. Potgieter shot all four rounds in the 60's. However, he is a +15000 longshot via DraftKings to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Potgieter has only one appearance on this course in Florida. He opened with a 79 last year and never fully recovered missing the cut. Potgieter missed the cut in his first three events in 2026. Any gains off the tee have been negated by losses on approach (+0.002 net). From a DFS and betting viewpoint, Potgieter remains a fade for Bay Hill.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 3, 2026
Sungjae Im was believed to be making progress and is now ready to make his 2026 debut at Bay Hill. The South Korean golfer has not played competitive golfer since the Genesis Championship in October. It has been a series of injuries and slow recoveries stemming from a muscle strain in his right hand/wrist. Im thinks he can give it a full go for four rounds at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The last five appearances have seen Im finish in the 18th-21st range with four times Im getting done in by one poor round. Im had three Top 5 results early in 2025 but struggled with form after. He will be one to watch especially to see more how he looks than how Im performs.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 3, 2026
Jordan Spieth is an intriguing golfer for this weekend's Arnold Palmer Invitational. The American has gained the third most amount of strokes when it comes to ball striking. Spieth has had three Top 30 results in four events in 2026. However, it can be anyone's guess how Spieth fares this week at Bay Hill. Even Spieth would say that. Still, the putter has been very good ranking 13th in strokes gained (0.862). Furthermore, Spieth is one of the best in 2026 in putts per round for Round 1 (27). If there are good odds on a first round leader, the American may be worth a look. Spieth is capable of firing in a 67 or 68 on Thursday but after that, DFS or betting options are more volatile.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 3, 2026
Harry Hall had his weekend cut short for the second time in 2026. The English golfer shot a Friday 74 at The Genesis Invitational. It was the same pattern as we saw at the WM Phoenix Open where Hall just could not make enough birdies. A big problem for Hall is that second round where he averages 30.2 putts per round. Worse, he cannot get shots close to the green on approaches. Hall ranks 170th on tour in proximity from greater than 200 yards. He only reaches 68.06% of greens in regulation (104th). Despite a solid putter, Hall truly has been up and down the past four events. He could be a great flier to take in DFS formats or for a Top 20 bet at Bay Hill.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
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