October 12, 2025
Although Ryan Blaney has led only 84 laps at Las Vegas, it still seems like he's kind of overdue for a win, here particularly after the 2020 race where he was leading when a caution came out with five laps left, which handed the race win to Blaney's teammate Joey Logano after Blaney pitted. After an unlucky start to the season, Blaney's luck has improved as the season has progressed. Although his race in March may have been his unluckiest of the season, the fact that the Penske and Penske-adjacent Fords were fast enough for Josh Berry to win means Blaney will likely have speed on Sunday in what is probably his best season to date. His high salary of $10,500 may keep him from being the absolute best option, but since he's starting 14th while the other likely winners are starting in the top 10, you could argue he might be.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 12, 2025
Chase Briscoe continued his run as NASCAR's most dominant qualifier with a second-place qualifying run on Saturday at Las Vegas. Although he finished fourth in the fall race in 2022, he normally doesn't run well here, although he has run better at most tracks since he switched to Joe Gibbs Racing after Stewart-Haas Racing, which was typically slow on intermediates in that era, closed down. He has earned top-five finishes at the last four unrestricted 1.5-mile oval races since the last race at Las Vegas, so he'll likely run well. But he's still never finished better than third on this track type, which means he'll likely lose a couple positions from where he starts, and he doesn't tend to dominate on intermediate tracks, either, so he likely won't get many lap-leader points. For those reasons, as well as his relatively high salary of $9,700, he's not the best option.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 12, 2025
On paper, Tyler Reddick seems like one of the best DFS options since he is generally regarded as a flat-intermediate master. He had five top-10 finishes in six starts here from 2021-2024, and he also led 34 laps in the March race before he got trapped a lap down after making a green-flag pit stop with only 26 laps left in the race. However, he understandably seemed a little distracted in recent months, what with 23XI Racing's lawsuit against NASCAR, rumors that he might leave the team if it loses its charter, and most importantly the health condition of his son Rookie. After being eliminated from the playoffs, Reddick will likely have a string of decent but uninspired runs to end the season, and he hasn't been leading much. Since he starts eighth, he has little to gain in terms of place-differential points, and since he's probably not going to dominate, there are better options.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 12, 2025
Alex Bowman typically runs well at Las Vegas as he does on most flat intermediates. He won the first Next Gen-era race in 2022 here, drawing the ire of Kyle Busch, who whined after the race about how Bowman backed into most of his victories. His luck has mostly run out since then, especially after his two injuries, but he has still finished 7th or better in five of his last nine starts and it seems likely he might be able to do it again. What might hold him back is that he has been eliminated from the NASCAR playoffs while his three Hendrick Motorsports teammates are all in the Round of 8, so they might let his performance slide to focus on the other three cars. Starting 12th, he's probably more likely to gain positions than not, but there are certainly several better options, especially considering that Bowman doesn't lead much.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 12, 2025
Brad Keselowski used to be a master at Las Vegas wih three wins from 2014-2018, but as with most tracks, he hasn't been much of a contender here with the Next Gen car, although he did lead 38 laps and finish fourth in the 2023 fall event. His 34th-place qualifying run yesterday is the worst of his career here, so you need to at least give him some consideration. Although he seemed washed up earlier this year, he did have RFK Racing's arguable best runs this year at Michigan and Iowa and has been the most dominant RFK driver even though Chris Buescher and Ryan Preece have both been faster and more consistent. His main issue is that he has often failed to get results this year even when he's run well, but nobody else who could reasonably contend qualified anywhere near that poorly, so you should probably start him anyway.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 12, 2025
Although Shane van Gisbergen hasn't typically been fast in oval races yet, he's now outqualified both his Trackhouse Racing teammates Ross Chastain and Daniel Suárez several times, and his speed in recent weeks has rapidly improved in oval races as well. He'll probably never win one, but much like his Supercars champion predecessor Marcos Ambrose, he'll likely acquit himself fairly well on them eventually. As a result, you can't exactly look at past history to forecast his performance since he will almost certainly run better than any model based on his past results would indicate. However, he also qualified 13th and his best oval finish remains his 10th two weeks ago at Kansas so he will likely still lose positions in terms of Place Differential points. You probably shouldn't start him, but he should still run better than you think.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 12, 2025
Although Josh Berry's win in the March race at Las Vegas seemed to mark a breakthrough for him in the NASCAR Cup Series, in retrospect, it's starting to seem like more of a fluke. This is not to say Berry hasn't had a number of good runs this season - his Loudon drive was probably even better - but the consistent speed Berry and his de facto teammate Austin Cindric showed on intermediates early in the season has fizzled out lately and he won the previous Las Vegas race primarily on strategy. A lot of people will be tempted to start him especially since his 29th-place starting position is far worse than he usually qualifies, but it also seems to indicate that his speed has stagnated recently despite the Loudon run. Based on the first half of the season, he could be a solid bet for a top fifteen, but his more recent races except Loudon have not been inspiring.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 12, 2025
Although the fan base seems to be giving up on Carson Hocevar's potential as he has caused more crashes and been arguably sloppier than he even was last year, avoid him at your own peril. Hocevar hasn't posted a particularly good finish at Las Vegas yet, but Spire Motorsports clearly has speed here if they were even able to put Michael McDowell on the pole here in the spring and despite finishing thirtieth two laps down in the March race, he earned points in both stages before spinning out Ty Gibbs on pit road. Hocevar also qualified 22nd for today's race, substantially worse than most of the other realistic contenders, not to mention the fact that he had the second-best average lap time in practice. All that makes him a great option for DFS Place Differential points especially since he has only been placed at $7,000 on DraftKings due to his poor earlier record. He'll likely exceed expectations today.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 12, 2025
Ryan Preece earned a career-best third-place finish in the last race at Las Vegas in March, but he ran nowhere near as well as that implied. His average running position of 15th was the worst of any of the drivers who finished in the top ten as the No. 60 team made an excellent strategy play by staying out of the pits on the race's final caution to advance from 14th to third, but to his credit he stayed there. Preece has run so much better at nearly all tracks this season than he had ever before in the past that his earlier results this season are probably more reflective of how he will perform tomorrow than his past results here. Since he has earned four top ten finishes on 1.5 mile tracks this year, don't he surprised if he does so again today, which could possibly make him viable for DFS play even though he has an above-average starting position in 16th.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 12, 2025
Las Vegas is typically one of Michael McDowell's worst tracks in terms of finishing results. Although he shockingly won the pole for the March race and earned his best career finish here, that finish was a relatively mediocre 16th. This means McDowell is almost guaranteed to finish worse than his 18th-place starting position and is a pretty easy cut from DFS lineups. If you are interested in starting a Spire Motorsports driver, you should go for Carson Hocevar, a far better driver who is starting considerably worse and will likely earn you place-differential points, while McDowell will probably lose them.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 12, 2025
Although Erik Jones is typically noted for his superspeedway strength and he often runs well on intermediates when his cars are fast enough, Las Vegas is a big exception. Jones has never finished better than eighth here and only led a single lap here, although surprisingly it came in the March race here during a restart exchange swap with Ross Chastain and not in the 2018 playoff race where he won the pole. Jones crashed not long after that and finished a lap down in 27th, but that race could indicate he might have some speed here. However, he is starting 19th and he has only finished better than that here twice in the Next Gen era, so he probably isn't a top-tier option for DFS play.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 12, 2025
John Hunter Nemechek starts 26th for Sunday's Las Vegas race, just as he did in last year's event when he finished a career-best ninth. However, that finish masked a mediocre overall performance, as his average running position of 18th was only barely better than in his other Las Vegas starts (even in his ill-fated 2020 rookie season), and it was clearly only a result of benefiting from strategy. Las Vegas does have a history of cautions interrupting runs of green-flag pit sequences and shaking up the field, and Nemechek may need that to contend. He's certainly been a little faster than he was last year, and he earned top-10 finishes at the Texas and Kansas intermediates back-to-back earlier this year, but he probably won't gain enough positions to be seriously viable for DFS contention.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
October 11, 2025
He may not be the best car in the field on a weekly basis, but Daniel Suarez has something figured out at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. In addition to two straight podium finishes at this race track, Suarez has finished 11th or better in four of the last five races here, and he hasn't ended up worse than 16th at this track over the last six races here. This weekend, Suarez had a pretty solid qualifying effort (comparatively speaking) on Saturday, and he will roll off the starting grid from 17th-place when the South Point 400 goes green on Sunday evening. In terms of playability in DFS, Suarez ($6,700 on DraftKings) is definitely a viable option. The Trackhouse Racing Chevrolets seem to have pretty good speed this weekend, and Suarez's track record here speaks for itself. Daniel finished 17th at Kansas a couple of weeks ago, which is the sister race track to Las Vegas.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: The Daytona Beach News-Journal
October 11, 2025
Don't be afraid to roll the dice with AJ Allmendinger at Las Vegas this weekend. The No. 16 Chevrolet has had solid speed on intermediate tracks this year, and over the last four races at this track, Allmendinger ahs posted two top-10 finishes with an average result of 14th over that span. Looking at other intermediate tracks this season, Allmenidnger finished seventh at Homestead, fourth at Charlotte, and fifth at Darlington this year, so we know the speed can be there in this No. 16 Chevrolet. As far as DFS goes, Allmendinger makes for an interesting tournament play, as he has some Place Differential upside starting 20th, and comes in at a very affordable $6,600 on DraftKings.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Driver Averages
October 11, 2025
The 2025 Cup Series season can't end quick enough for Kyle Busch and the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing team. Over hte last 12 races this season, Busch has just one top-10 finish (an eighth at Darlington) compared to seven results of 20th or worse over that same span. And it doesn't look like things are going to turn around for Rowdy at his home race track, Las Vegas, this weekend. Busch qualified abck in 32nd for Sunday evening's South Point 400 race and had one of the worst 10-lap averages during practice, ranking 29th-fastest out of 32 cars. Although Kyle does have a good overall record at Las Vegas Motor Speedway--including five top-five finishes in the last nine races here--this No. 8 team is struggling so much right now that it's hard to imagine him even sniffing the top 10 on race day. Kyle wound up finishing 19th at Kansas a couple of weeks ago, which is much more likely of a run here at Vegas on Sunday than a top-10 result would be.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Jayski
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