Overtime Four-Tire Call Costs Denny Hamlin the Championship

Denny Hamlin was the sentimental favorite for the NASCAR Cup Series championship because not only is he the winningest non-champion but his father is also terminally ill. For most of the race, it looked like it was going to happen as Hamlin started on the pole and led 208 out of 319 laps. Although William […]

Chase Briscoe's Championship Bid Never Really Started After Two Tire Failures

Chase Briscoe looked a little outmatched in the Championship 4 since his opponents Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and William Byron were all vastly more experienced in championship battles, but Briscoe tried his hardest, and in a race where all four Championship 4 drivers had tire issues, Briscoe certainly had his moments. Although Briscoe qualified 12th, […]

Brad Keselowski Nearly Steals Phoenix Race

Brad Keselowski did not run very well in Sunday's season finale at Phoenix, but he sneaked into the lower reaches of the top 10 on Lap 258 before he and the No. 6 team stayed out of the pits to take the lead on the caution for William Byron's blown tire and crash with two […]

Chase Briscoe Probably Won't Win the Title

Despite being the dominant qualifier this year, Championship 4 driver Chase Briscoe qualified 12th for Sunday's championship race at Phoenix. Perhaps this shouldn't have been as much of a surprise as it was, as despite seven poles, 22 top-10 starts this year, and only four starts outside the top 10 in the season's second half, […]

Joey Logano Could Play Spoiler in Championship Battle at Phoenix

Although Joey Logano was eliminated from the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs last weekend at Martinsville, he starts 10th and could play a spoiler role in Sunday's race at Phoenix. Once the championship race was moved there in 2020, Team Penske, in particular, and Logano's No. 22 team have gone all-in on Phoenix and gotten great […]

Tyler Reddick Seeking to End Winless Drought, but Probably Won't Have the Speed

Tyler Reddick has kind of gone through the motions and had a rather disappointing season, no doubt in part due to the stress of 23XI Racing's lawsuit against NASCAR, rumors that he might leave if the team remains unchartered, and the health issues facing his son, Rookie. However, Rookie has now improved and is home […]

Bubba Wallace Looks to Protect Top-10 Points Finish at Phoenix

Bubba Wallace currently sits 10th in points, 12 points ahead of Ross Chastain in seeking his second top-10 points finish at Phoenix on Sunday. Despite his points advantage, Chastain might actually be favored since he qualified 13th at a track where he is great, while Wallace qualified 23rd at a track where he is mediocre. […]

Brad Keselowski Hasn't Been Fast at Phoenix With RFK Racing

Although Brad Keselowski had been going on a bit of a run throughout the playoff races with four top-10 finishes in the six races entering last week's race at Martinsville, he was unexpectedly mediocre there, and it's hard to expect much better at Phoenix. Surprisingly, Keselowski never won here, even in his glory days, but […]

With Nothing at Stake, Expect Little From Daniel Suarez

Daniel Suárez qualified on the outside of Row 7 for Sunday's season finale at Phoenix alongside his teammate Ross Chastain. Since he is a lame-duck driver at Trackhouse Racing before he moves to the No. 7 car at Spire Motorsports, expect Suárez to play a support role for Chastain as much as possible since he […]

Kyle Busch Qualifies Well, but Will Probably Finish Worse Than he Starts

In his peak period, Kyle Busch was pretty remarkable at Phoenix with 10 straight finishes of seventh or better from 2015-2020 and 680 laps led in that time span, but as we enter his decline, it's worth noting he's never led a lap or finished better than seventh since. He has matched his car number […]

Ryan Preece has a Shot to Overtake Chris Buescher as RFK Racing's Lead Driver

Expectations were low for Ryan Preece entering this season but now he stands a chance of overtaking his teammate Chris Buescher as both the highest points finisher for RFK Racing as well as the highest-finishing non-playoff driver in points. He probably won't do it since he's 29 points behind, but Buescher was inexplicably slow at […]

Austin Dillon Looks to Avoid Finishing Last in NASCAR Playoffs

Although Austin Dillon has mostly been a complete nonfactor at Phoenix, he's also been weirdly consistent in so doing. While he's only earned two top ten finishes here in his career, he's also finished between 12th and 18th in all but three of his last ten starts here and one of the exceptions was the […]

A.J. Allmendinger Might be a Worthy DFS Option

A.J. Allmendinger has kind of faded into the background in recent years, as he is nowhere near as good at his main strength (road racing) as Shane van Gisbergen is, but he's still performing somewhat decently in his questionable Kaulig Racing cars. Allmendinger used to be very fast at Phoenix in Richard Petty Motorsports' years, […]

Christopher Bell Eliminated From Championship 4 After a Too Conservative Season

In a winner-take-all race at Martinsville, where William Byron and Ryan Blaney led 96% of the laps from below the playoff cut line, Byron and Blaney's duel made it a race-long battle between Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson for the final transfer spot, but it really wasn't much of a battle. Even though Bell entered […]

Joey Logano's Lack of Championship-Caliber Speed Leads to Elimination

Although Joey Logano predictably ran in the top 10 most of the day at Martinsville, where he started fourth, finished eighth, and posted an average running position of sixth, he just as predictably failed to seriously contend for the win or even the lead at any point in the race. Logano ranks 10th in speed […]

Chase Briscoe Finishes Last at Martinsville

Chase Briscoe finished last in Sunday's race at Martinsville after an engine failure, but it clearly doesn't matter since he had already advanced to the Championship 4 by virtue of his win at Talladega. It seems incredibly obvious that both Hamlin and Briscoe were trying some wild setups and treating Martinsville as a race-long test […]

Don't Think Denny Hamlin's Engine Failure Affects his Championship Prospects

In a Martinsville race that didn't mean much for Denny Hamlin since he had already locked himself into the Championship 4, Hamlin and his teammate, Chase Briscoe, who had also advanced, both blew engines, as did fellow Toyota driver Riley Herbst. Obviously, since the two Toyota drivers who advanced both blew engines while none of […]

Kyle Larson Should Advance to Championship 4

Kyle Larson sits 36 points above his teammate William Byron for the final transfer spot entering Sunday's penultimate Xfinity 500 at Martinsville. If any driver other than Byron, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, or his other teammate, Chase Elliott, wins at Martinsville, then Larson should be pretty safe to advance, but otherwise, he will need to […]

Don't Expect Joey Logano to Significantly Contend for Championship 4

Joey Logano is 38 points behind Kyle Larson for the final transfer spot in the Championship 4 entering Sunday's race at Martinsville, but it's pretty hard to see him having much of a shot at advancing to Phoenix. Logano starts fourth, which is admittedly his best qualifying result on speed here since 2019, and he […]

William Byron A DFS Must-Start Due to Lap-Leader Points

William Byron did what he needed to do to stay alive in the playoff race, even though he is currently 36 points behind his teammate Kyle Larson for the final transfer spot to get into the Championship Round after winning the pole for Sunday's Xfinity 500. Since all the drivers he is chasing in the […]

Hail Melon Nostalgia Masks Ross Chastain's Martinsville Mediocrity

Although Ross Chastain delivered what will forever remain his lifetime highlight reel in the fall 2022 race at Martinsville with his storied last lap wall ride to advance to the Championship Round of the playoffs, he actually hasn't been very good at Martinsville overall. That improbable fourth-place finish was his best ever at the track […]

Josh Berry a Top Contender for DFS Place-Differential Points

Josh Berry remains hard to predict because he remains one of the most inconsistent and mistake-prone drivers on the circuit, particularly among drivers who occasionally have winning speed. Berry starts 27th at Martinsville today, and while he finished second at the geometrically similar but much larger Loudon earlier this season and has typically been fast […]

Brad Keselowski an Intriguing Martinsville Option

Brad Keselowski isn't as much of a factor on most tracks as he used to be, but short tracks seem to be one of the main exceptions. In his last three short track starts at Iowa, Richmond, and Bristol, he has finished in the top ten all three times with a third at Iowa, a […]

Shane Van Gisbergen Now Competent on Ovals, but Don't Start Him Here

Perhaps it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that Shane van Gisbergen no longer looks like a fish out of water like he did earlier in the season. He remains after all one of the world's greatest racing drivers and his car control, strategy, and racecraft can still often carry him even on unfamiliar […]

Kyle Busch Qualifies Well but Probably Won't Have Staying Power

After months of basically looking washed up, Kyle Busch pulled out a relative surprise by qualifying seventh at Martinsville on Saturday, his first top-10 qualifying run on an unrestricted oval since Michigan 20 races ago. That's actually his best starting position since his pole seven years ago in 2018 as well. However, in the 13 […]

Carson Hocevar's Lack of Finesse Makes Him a Risky Martinsville Pick

It's hard to know what to make of Carson Hocevar's chances at Martinsville on Sunday. He has finished better than he started in all four of his previous Cup Series races, but he has never finished better than 17th. However, on Sunday, he will be starting 15th. Obviously, it's a lot harder to gain positions […]

Michael McDowell Missing Martinsville Mastery

Short tracks are definitely Michael McDowell's worst track type, and Martinsville is certainly no exception, as McDowell has never finished better than 12th here, although it is noteworthy that he did so in this year's spring race, his debut for Spire Motorsports. The fact that he now drives for a Hendrick Motorsports satellite probably somewhat […]

Can Chase Elliott Deliver Another Clutch Win to Make Championship 4?

Chase Elliott became a long shot to advance to the Championship 4 after a disappointing day at Las Vegas, where he suffered a penalty for a runaway tire, then was minorly involved in the late race 11-car pileup, which resulted in an 18th-place finish. Since he's now 23 points behind his fellow Chase (Briscoe) for […]

William Byron Seeks First Win at Talladega to Overcome Las Vegas Crash

After months of complacency, William Byron now may be approaching a must-win scenario as his crash at Las Vegas coupled with Denny Hamlin's win will make it a lot more difficult to make the Championship 4. He might not need to win if he doesn't crash at Talladega and one of the other playoff contenders […]

Chase Briscoe Likely to Finish Worse Than he Starts

Qualifying dominance on other tracks doesn't necessarily carry over to Talladega, but it did for Chase Briscoe, who qualified second to earn his 12th front row start. Although Briscoe only finished 15th in the spring, he led 20 laps and his 15-lap stint out front from laps 26-40 was the second-longest such stint in the […]