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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

975 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

Poor Strategy Ruins William Byron's Strong Run

William Byron made one of the rapidest ascents through the field early in Sunday's Pocono race, earning points in Stage 1 after staying out of the pits leading up to the first stage caution because there was a risk he might've been lapped if he'd tried to pit then. Despite falling back to 18th after […]


Kyle Larson's Decent Pocono Run Allows Him to Make Up Some of his Points Deficit

Kyle Larson didn't have his usual speed at Pocono and he didn't drive up through the field as quickly as his teammate William Byron did, but he had a solid racecraft and finished seventh after qualifying 24th. Although he earned no points in Stage 1, he finished ninth in Stage 2 before jumping to sixth […]


John Hunter Nemechek Earns Another Sixth-Place Finish in One of His Best Career Races

John Hunter Nemechek had one of the best runs of his career at Pocono on Sunday, finishing sixth after starting fourth as Legacy Motor Club's cars improve. Although Nemechek quickly fell from fourth to 10th early in Stage 1, he returned to the top five early in Stage 2 after pitting just before the first […]


Christopher Bell Probably Not Dominant Enough Recently for DFS Play

After his hat trick of wins early this season, Christopher Bell has cooled off considerably in recent months in terms of dominating races. After a 2024 when Bell led over 20 laps eleven times and over 100 laps six times, he has only led more than eight laps twice this season. However, he has remained […]


Bubba Wallace's Lack of Pocono Qualifying Time Makes Him a DFS Must-Have

After three straight crashes, Bubba Wallace sat in a precarious playoff position after the Coca-Cola 600, but after three stronger runs subsequently, he has cemented his playoff position and he is going to a track where he has been very consistent. In his five Pocono starts for 23XI Racing, Wallace has never finished worse than […]


Ross Chastain Not As Good a DFS Option As Usual at Pocono

As usual, Ross Chastain qualified poorly but unlike most weeks, he isn't one of the absolute best DFS options like he usually is because he has never posted a top ten finish at Pocono before. He has had speed at times, particularly in 2022 when Denny Hamlin wrecked him out of the lead during their […]


Chase Briscoe Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration

Chase Briscoe earned his best starting position at Pocono Raceway when he qualified sixth for today's race. He has not had much success at Pocono in the past as although he has finished on the lead lap in all five of his races, he has never finished better than 15th but he did that with […]


Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.'s Feud with Carson Hocevar Will Be His Only Pocono Storyline Today

After Carson Hocevar wrecked Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. twice in the last three weeks, that effectively eliminated Stenhouse from the playoff picture. He didn't deserve it anyway since he has been extremely mediocre and had merely been lucky not to have a DNF prior to that, but it was still not cool of Hocevar to do […]


Pocono One of Daniel Suarez's Stronger Tracks

Although Daniel Suárez disappointed last weekend in his home race, he's coming to a track where he has had a fair amount of success. In addition to winning the pole in 2018, Suárez has four top tens at Pocono including a second and a third, but most of that success came in his years when […]


Ryan Preece Looks to Close Playoff Deficit to Teammate Chris Buescher

Shane van Gisbergen's win at Mexico City was a sharp blow to Ryan Preece's chances of making the NASCAR playoffs but he remains alive in the playoff hunt and trails his teammate Chris Buescher by a mere 19 points. When considering Preece seems to be faster than Buescher as often as not, it's definitely still […]


Another Learning Experience for Shane van Gisbergen at Pocono

Everyone knew Shane van Gisbergen's season entirely hinged on whether or not he won a road course race in the regular season. After his win at Mexico City last weekend placed him in the playoffs, he's back to his regular schedule of struggling to learn NASCAR's numerous oval circuits. SVG has driven at Pocono once […]


Michael McDowell's Poor Qualifying Makes Him Worthy of DFS Consideration

Michael McDowell qualified slowest of the three Spire Motorsports cars at Pocono as he qualified 28th while Justin Haley was 22nd and Carson Hocevar was 3rd. This suggests he might have some value for DFS Place Differential points given Hocevar's speed. However, it is more likely given his recent form that Hocevar is fast due […]


Ty Dillon Consistent at Pocono at a Very Low Level

Ty Dillon has consistently kept it clean at Pocono but he's never quite been relevant. Dillon, who starts 27th today, has finished all 12 of his Pocono races and has completed all but nine laps at the triangle. Earlier in his career, he was even better than that with three top twenties in his first […]


Expect a Mediocre Pocono Run from Justin Haley

Justin Haley is having a low-key disastrous NASCAR Cup Series season this year, possibly due to his crew chief Ryan Sparks, who also helped make Corey LaJoie look worse than he was in previous years. While Haley doesn't crash as much as LaJoie, he has almost never been relevant this season even though his teammate […]


Cody Ware Might Not Get Lapped, but He Still Won't Run Well

Cody Ware was one of four drivers who failed to post a time in qualifying for today's race at Pocono. As a result, he will be starting 36th for the race. Because Pocono is one of the longest tracks on the schedule, NASCAR's mandatory stage cautions make it extremely difficult for drivers to be lapped. […]


Alex Bowman Delivers Bravura Performance After Michigan Injury

Alex Bowman delivered one of the grittiest performances of his career on Sunday at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City, finishing fourth despite being very sore from his crash a week ago at Michigan. Bowman said he felt more pain entering this race than he did after suffering a concussion and a broken back in […]


Tyler Reddick Inexplicably Mediocre on his Once-Best Track Type

Tyler Reddick inexplicably had one of the most mediocre road-course races of his career on Sunday at Mexico City despite consistently running well at Circuit of the Americas, the other Formula 1 track on the NASCAR schedule. After starting 22nd, Reddick spent most of the race outside the top 20 before eventually finishing 20th. Reddick […]


Canny Strategy Gives John Hunter Nemechek Best Career Road-Course Finish

Legacy Motor Club continued to show more pace than they have in 2023 and 2024, and John Hunter Nemechek was the main beneficiary in Sunday's race at Mexico City. After starting 32nd, he finished sixth, which actually matches his best career finish outside drafting tracks. Nemechek wasn't much of a factor in the first two […]


Cole Custer Earns Best Finish Since Cup-Series Comeback at Mexico City

Although Cole Custer has lacked speed all season since his return to the NASCAR Cup Series, he easily had his best run of the year at Mexico City on Sunday. Not only did he finish eighth to earn his first top-10 finish of the season, but he actually ran in the top 10 for most […]


Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win

Ross Chastain's speed on road courses has been inconsistent, just as Trackhouse Racing's speed tends to be generally, but Chastain has been fast this weekend and it is likely Trackhouse is putting greater emphasis on this race since it is the first NASCAR Cup Series race at Mexico, where Chastain's Mexican teammate has his first […]


Kyle Busch One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field

Kyle Busch is one of the few NASCAR Cup Series drivers who previously competed at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in the 2000s when the track held races in what was then the Busch Series and Nationwide Series. He won the last race there in 2008 before the track was removed from the schedule for 17 years. […]


Ryan Preece Earns Surprising Front-Row Start

Ryan Preece shockingly qualified second for Sunday's race at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, giving him only his third front-row start on speed. Needless to say, this was very surprising since Preece had only ever posted two top-10 finishes in 22 road-course starts -- both ninth-place finishes at the Daytona road course in 2021 and Watkins Glen […]


Austin Cindric Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think

Although Austin Cindric has a reputation as a road course expert in the NASCAR Cup Series, he's really overrated on this track type in recent years. Although he does have a better average finish on road and street courses than on any other track type, he has fallen off on these tracks somewhat in recent […]


Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones

Despite Bubba Wallace's reputation as a lousy road racer and Tyler Reddick's reputation as a great one, Wallace qualified 25th and only three spots behind Reddick for Sunday's event. When you consider that Wallace is having his best season in general, there is likely some value here for place-differential points considering how poorly Wallace qualified, […]


Joey Logano Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races

It's hard to tell which NASCAR races Team Penske is emphasizing these days. While previous years suggested that Joey Logano and the No. 22 were intentionally ignoring races once they locked into the playoffs to focus exclusively on winning the Las Vegas and Phoenix playoff races, they seem to have switched that up this year […]


Brad Keselowski One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience

Although Brad Keselowski has never been a very good road racer aside from a few years at Watkins Glen, he is one of the few drivers in the field who has past experience at Mexico City, where he finished eighth in 2008 before he even won his first NASCAR Cup Series race. Sunday's race arguably […]


Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014

After Denny Hamlin withdrew from Sunday's race at Mexico City after the birth of his son on Thursday, Ryan Truex was tapped to drive Hamlin's No. 11 car. After previously winning three NASCAR Xfinity Series races for Joe Gibbs Racing in 2023 and 2024, this marks his first start in the Cup Series since his […]


Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones

Although Legacy Motor Club seems to be improving a little after Erik Jones recovered from his injury and the No. 43 team replaced David Elenz and Ben Beshore, the team still isn't very fast. Jones's road course performances were decent when he was driving for Joe Gibbs Racing with the Gen 6 chassis, but his […]


Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option

Noah Gragson qualified 35th for Sunday's Mexico City race. This marks his worst starting position in over a year, and he only outqualified Ryan Truex and Katherine Legge, two drivers with next to no experience with the Next Gen chassis. Having said that, Front Row Motorsports clearly has some speed, as Gragson's teammate Todd Gilliland […]


Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type

Although Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was still in the playoffs a couple weeks ago more because he didn't crash than because he actually ran well, he will likely struggle and completely fall out of the playoff picture on the road-course-heavy summer stretch. In 41 road-course starts, Stenhouse only earned a single top-10 finish at Austin in […]


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