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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

726 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

Joey Logano Likely To Lead At Las Vegas, But Will He Lead Enough For DFS Consideration?

Even though Joey Logano is very expensive at $9,500, last fall's Las Vegas winner seems potentially poised to lead early and often since he qualified second directly outside Michael McDowell. Considering he is a vastly better intermediate driver and one of Las Vegas' foremost masters, he stands a good chance of earning a lot of […]


Michael McDowell Wins Spire Motorsports' First Pole At Las Vegas

Michael McDowell pulled a big surprise by delivering Spire Motorsports' first pole position for Sunday's Pennzoil 400, while his teammates Carson Hocevar and Justin Haley only qualified 25th and 33rd, respectively. Although McDowell won the most poles last year, that came for a Front Row Motorsports team that was dominating on drafting tracks, and one […]


Austin Cindric Qualifies Third But Is Almost Guaranteed To Lose Spots

Austin Cindric tends to qualify well on flat intermediates, and Las Vegas is no exception, as he has now qualified third here for the third time, including three of the last four winter Las Vegas races. However, he also has a history of sliding back through the pack when he qualifies well on an intermediate […]


Chase Briscoe's Las Vegas Performance Hard To Predict

Chase Briscoe was typically very slow in his previous races at Las Vegas, with a fourth place in the 2022 fall event serving as his sole highlight, but even in that race he only had an average running position of 17th. Admittedly, a large part of that was the fact that the Stewart-Haas Racing cars […]


Ty Gibbs A Solid DFS Option In Theory

After looking like he would inevitably win his first NASCAR Cup Series race soon in the first half of last year, Ty Gibbs has had an inexplicable falloff. He has only posted a single top ten in the last 15 races despite having theoretically championship-caliber Joe Gibbs Racing equipment and it's not like he's even […]


Shane Van Gisbergen Too Inexperienced At Las Vegas For DFS Consideration

Even though Shane van Gisbergen's teammate Ross Chastain was the fastest driver in Saturday's practice at Las Vegas, don't expect SVG to utilize his Trackhouse Racing cars to the same extent. Although it might be tempting to draft him because he is starting 28th and because of Chastain's speed, he is still a rookie who […]


Noah Gragson Finished Well At Las Vegas Last Year

Although Noah Gragson crashed out last week at Phoenix when he seemed to be the best underdog DFS choice, the hometown native seems to have a little value at Las Vegas since last year he drove from 30th to sixth on a track type where the Stewart-Haas Racing cars usually struggle. However, even though he […]


Austin Dillon Decent At Las Vegas, But Not Worthy Of DFS Play

Austin Dillon has a decent record at Las Vegas, even though he hardly ever leads there. In 19 starts, he has finished in the top twenty 14 times and has been reliably consistent on a very low level, which suggests he will probably improve somewhat from his 22nd place starting position. However, he has only […]


Josh Berry's Poor Intermediate Record Likely To Override Strong Qualifying Result

Josh Berry qualifying well is starting to become rather routine, and his seventh-place starting position for Sunday's race at Las Vegas is consistent with that. However, he tends to be very slow on unrestricted intermediate tracks, and he only finished 20th and 24th in last year's Las Vegas races. Admittedly, he was a rookie, but […]


Spire Speed Suggests Justin Haley Is A Strong DFS Option

In a puzzling qualifying session, Michael McDowell won the pole while his Spire Motorsports teammates Carson Hocevar and Justin Haley only qualified 25th and 33rd, respectively. Nonetheless, based on qualifying, Spire has seemed to have an uptick in speed this year and Spire at least is a Hendrick Motorsports satellite at a track where HMS […]


Cole Custer Could Be Valuable If Haas Has Intermediate Speed

Although Cole Custer's career-defining moment in the Cup Series came when he made a four-wide pass for the win as a rookie at Kentucky Speedway in 2020 and Las Vegas is likewise a flat 1.5-mile track, he hasn't been too strong at Las Vegas, as his best finish is 16th and he has never led […]


Despite Decent Run Last Fall, Cody Ware Still Isn't Worth Considering

Cody Ware qualified 35th for Sunday's race at Las Vegas. After missing the fall 2023 and winter 2024 races at Las Vegas after his arrest and suspension by NASCAR, he earned a career-best finish at the track when he finished 21st, and it wasn't that unrepresentative of a result as his average running position of […]


Power-Steering Failure Foils Tyler Reddick's Bid For Potential Victory

Tyler Reddick never led at Phoenix on Sunday but he had strong speed as he moved into the top five on the 10th lap and remained there for most of the race, spending long portions of it running second to either William Byron or eventual winner Christopher Bell. However, in the third stage, his power […]


William Byron Recovers From Being Trapped A Lap Down To Finish Sixth

After winning the pole for Sunday's race at Phoenix, William Byron led 83 of the race's 94 laps. Although it looked like Joey Logano was faster in the early stages of the race and they exchanged the lead four times, Byron began to dominate after Logano was penalized for jumping the second restart. However, Byron […]


Josh Berry Gives Wood Brothers Team Best Run Since 2021

Josh Berry had one of the best runs for a Wood Brothers driver in years in Sunday's Phoenix race. After starting fourth, Berry ran in the top five for almost the entire first stage but fell to 29th after a loose lug nut during the race's fourth caution. Luckily, he managed to evade the multi-car […]


Tyler Reddick's DFS Value Likely Hinges On How Much He Leads

Tyler Reddick has lately seemed to exchange some of his blinding speed from previous years for a nearly robotic consistency. Phoenix hasn't been one of his best tracks as short tracks and one mile ovals tend not to suit him, but he's still earned four top tens in his last six starts including two third-place […]


Despite Strong Phoenix Record, Chase Briscoe Qualifies Inexplicably Poorly

Chase Briscoe got the reprieve of a lifetime when his 100 point penalty at the Daytona 500 was rescinded last Wednesday. On paper, Briscoe should be extremely valuable for DFS lineups since he is starting 30th (worse than he has ever qualified here) but he has also earned top tens in four of his ten […]


Bubba Wallace's Phoenix Record Is Not Great

Although short tracks have become arguably Bubba Wallace's best track type in terms of finishes, Phoenix isn't a short track and Wallace usually qualifies poorly and runs in the upper midfield here. However, his 19th-place qualifying run yesterday was actually tied for the second-best of his career and he has finished between 7th and 16th […]


Daniel Suarez Seeks To Prove Himself At Phoenix After Embarrassing Austin Crash

After the embarrassment of crashing himself and his possible replacement, Connor Zilisch, out last week at Austin, Daniel Suárez will be eager to prove himself at Phoenix, but his 31st-place starting position is tied for the second-worst of his career here, and that came when he was driving for Gaunt Brothers Racing. However, his worst […]


Josh Berry Could Run Well At Phoenix

Josh Berry has a knack for qualifying in the NASCAR Cup Series although it often escapes notice. After seven top five qualifying runs in his rookie season and another at Atlanta this year, he starts on the outside of Row 2 at Phoenix today, the best starting position on a non-drafting oval for the No. […]


Erik Jones Qualifies Well At Phoenix But Rarely Finishes Well

Considering Erik Jones has been one of the weakest qualifiers in the NASCAR Cup Series in recent years, the fact that Jones qualified fifth for Sunday's race at Phoenix may come as a surprise. However, he has qualified in the top 10 nine times here, including thrice with Legacy Motor Club. But after being dropped […]


Noah Gragson The Most Underrated DFS Option

Noah Gragson may fade in the background more than any other NASCAR Cup Series driver lately, but his record at Phoenix is really solid as he finished 12th in both events last year and he was actually by far the highest-placed finisher for Stewart-Haas Racing in their final race in last year's finale. Although he […]


Shane Van Gisbergen Likely Too Inexperienced To Run Well At Phoenix

Shane van Gisbergen's season effectively lives or dies based on his road course performances to such an extent where his oval performances are something of an afterthought. He makes his first NASCAR Cup Series start at Phoenix today but he performed decently well here in the Xfinity Series, where he finished 6th and 12th in […]


Ricky Stenhouse Jr. One Of The Weakest DFS Options

Phoenix has been a pretty terrible track for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He has only ever placed in the top 10 twice in 24 starts, with both coming in his relative glory days at Roush Fenway Racing in 2017. Since the move to the Next Gen chassis, he has never finished better than 19th and he […]


Justin Haley's Car Faster Than He Is At Phoenix

Justin Haley seems to have lucked out that the Spire Motorsports cars are significantly faster than they were last season (and even faster than the Rick Ware cars he had last year), but it doesn't seem to have much to do with him. Carson Hocevar and Michael McDowell have looked faster all year, and Saturday […]


Riley Herbst Likely To Finish Worse Than His Usual 17th At Phoenix

After an improbable three straight 17th-place finishes to start the season, Riley Herbst qualified one spot worse than that at Phoenix, which was actually his best qualifying position on a non-drafting oval in his Cup Series career to date. However, don't expect him to extend his streak a fourth week as Herbst developed very lowly […]


Zane Smith Likely To Outperform Phoenix Expectations Due To Ford Speed

Zane Smith starts 26th at Phoenix and on paper is not expected to do much because his best career finish at the track is 29th. However, he has switched from Spire Motorsports to Front Row Motorsports for 2025 and FRM has arguably been better at the track lately than Spire was last year. Michael McDowell […]


Cody Ware Not Very Valuable At Phoenix

Cody Ware qualified 35th for Sunday's race at Phoenix. Although Ware has finished better than he has started in every one of his Phoenix starts, except for the 2021 winter race where he crashed, there still isn't enough upside to actually consider him for DFS lineups. He has never finished better than 28th in a […]


Chase Elliott Recovers From Lap 1 Spinout To Finish Fourth

After starting third, Chase Elliott's race at Austin spun out of control literally after a bump from Ross Chastain dropped him to 36th. After making repairs on the Stage 1 caution, he didn't catch up to the field in time as he restarted over 10 seconds behind the other lead lap cars in Stage 2. […]


In Battle Between Last Two Race Winners, William Byron Comes Up Short

Last year's Circuit of the Americas winner William Byron came very close to repeating the feat despite starting 15th. He ran in the top ten all race as he immediately drove up to 9th by evading the lap 1 crash then steadily worked his way through the field until he was in the top five […]


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