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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

726 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

If Brad Keselowski Has Any Speed Whatsoever, He's A Killer DFS Option

Brad Keselowski sits 30th in points and right now stands as 2025's biggest disappointment, as he has no top-10 finishes and two crashes and he hasn't even seriously contended anywhere with a best average running position this year of 20th in a year when Keselowski's teammate Chris Buescher has earned four top-10 finishes. These trends […]


Noah Gragson's Teammates Will Likely Outrun Him On Sunday

Noah Gragson qualified 24th at Martinsville. Although he lost positions in both of his first two starts here, he finished better than he qualified in both 2024 races, especially last year's fall race when he drove from 25th to 11th and unexpectedly beat all the other Stewart-Haas Racing cars. However, now he is driving for […]


Martinsville One Of Michael McDowell's Worst Tracks

Martinville is one of Michael McDowell's worst tracks, as he has never finished better than 14th, posted an average running position better than 18th, or led a lap at the paper clip. But now he has left his long-term home at Front Row Motorsports to switch to Spire Motorsports, where he qualified 15th and did […]


Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Consistently Slow At Martinsville

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. qualified 34th at Martinsville, worst of all the established veterans in competitive cars. However, this isn't particularly a good track for him, as he has never led a lap and has only earned three top-10 finishes with an average finish of 24.1 despite only crashing once here. He did earn his best […]


Erik Jones Has Worst Qualifying Run At A Track That Already Wasn't His Best

Erik Jones has never been particularly good at Martinsville, as he has never led a lap and has only earned one top-10 finish in the 2021 fall race. Even in his years with Furniture Row Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing, his best finish was a mere 12th twice, and the only thing anyone remembers about […]


John Hunter Nemechek Has Fastest Legacy Car, But That's Not Saying A Lot

John Hunter Nemechek earned his best starting position at Martinsville by qualifying 16th on Saturday, but although he definitely looks a little better this year than last year, his Martinsville Cup Series performances have not been inspiring as his finishes and average running positions were actually worse last year for Legacy Motor Club than they […]


Riley Herbst Unlikely To Gain Enough Positions To Justify DFS Play

Riley Herbst qualified 35th at Martinsville, matching his car number in a race where his two 23XI Racing teammates Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick both qualified in the top 10. Herbst has never started a NASCAR Cup Series race at Martinsville before, but he was fairly consistent in the Xfinity Series despite hardly ever leading […]


Cody Ware Unlikely To Contend At Martinsville

Cody Ware qualified 36th at Martinsville on Saturday, beating only Casey Mears, who is returning after a long absence, and Burt Myers, who is making his debut. He has gained a few positions in all his previous Martinsville starts except for the 2019 spring race, when he had a brake failure. But Rick Ware Racing […]


Southern Modified Legend Burt Myers Makes Cup Series Debut At Martinsville

Burt Myers makes his debut in Sunday's Martinsville race for Team AmeriVet. Myers, the grandson of Billy Myers, a two-time Cup Series winner, has been one of the most prolific modified drivers in the South in the 21st century, winning 10 track championships at Bowman Gray Stadium and numerous modified titles -- most notably the […]


Savvy Pit Strategy Helps Denny Hamlin Win Stage 2 At Homestead

Homestead has always been one of Denny Hamlin's stronger tracks, so it didn't come as much of a surprise that he eventually finished fifth in Sunday's race there, but for a while, it looked like he might finish significantly worse. Hamlin initially started 23rd and fell back as low as 30th in the early laps […]


Chase Briscoe Moves Above Playoff Cut Line With Fourth-Place Finish

Although Chase Briscoe qualified fourth for Sunday's Homestead race (higher than any of his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates), a lot of people had rather low expectations given his history of struggling on intermediates for Stewart-Haas Racing. However, JGR is a lot faster than SHR on those tracks, and he had a lot more staying power […]


Joey Logano Misses Top 10 Again After Pit-Road Spin

Defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Joey Logano's streak of zero top-10 finishes to start the 2025 season continued with a 14th-place finish at Homestead. Given the speed of the Penske cars (especially Logano's teammate Ryan Blaney) in Sunday's event, Logano must have expected more. After starting 12th, Logano drove up to sixth when the caution […]


Tyler Reddick Underachieves But Still Finishes Eighth

Tyler Reddick had a strangely muted run at Homestead, which is conventionally one of his best tracks in the NASCAR Cup Series. After winning last fall's race at Homestead in gallant fashion, he only finished 8th today after running much worse than that for most of the event. Although he gained five positions from 20th […]


Justin Haley Earns First Non-Drafting Oval Top-10 Finish For Spire Motorsports

After a string of futility in his first half-season as a Spire Motorsports driver, Justin Haley earned his first top-10 finish on a non-drafting oval at Homestead on Sunday. In a race that had relatively little attrition, Haley started 21st and steadily worked his way through the pack during the race, finishing 15th at the […]


Alex Bowman Earns First Non-Drafting Superspeedway Pole Since 2016

After a long run of consistent finishes in races where he has otherwise mostly been a non-factor, Alex Bowman earned his first pole on a non-drafting superspeedway for Sunday's Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Although you'd think Homestead would be one of his absolute best tracks since it is similar to Chicagoland, Kansas, […]


Denny Hamlin's Poor Las Vegas Run Suggests He Might Be Overvalued For Homestead

Denny Hamlin has been reliably consistent at Homestead over the years, earning 13 top-10 finishes in 20 starts as well as three wins. He has also led all three Homestead races with the Next Gen chassis and battled Ryan Blaney and his driver Tyler Reddick for the win last year, but now his former crew […]


Joey Logano's Recent Homestead Record Misleading Due To Past Playoff Situations

Joey Logano has gotten a lot of criticism for being the first defending NASCAR Cup Series champion to fail to earn a top-10 finish in the first five races of the season, but that doesn't reflect how well he has run as the Penske cars seem to be a lot faster this year, and Logano […]


Josh Berry Probably Needs To Lead To Have DFS Value

After Josh Berry's semi-surprise first win at Las Vegas last week, he has continued to keep up his consistently good qualifying and starts on the outside front row for Sunday's Homestead race. Although he's definitely gained a lot of speed over his entire sophomore season, he still needed a lot of help from faster cars […]


Daniel Suarez's Poor Qualifying Makes Him A Strong DFS Option

After Daniel Suárez's unexpected second-place finish last week at Las Vegas where his teammate Ross Chastain seemed to have the most speed for a while, Suárez qualified a miserable 33rd at Homestead, which suggests there's a lot of value there if the Trackhouse Racing cars are able to carry over their speed to other intermediate […]


Shane Van Gisbergen Likely Too Inexperienced To Gain Many Positions At Homestead

Shane van Gisbergen is making his first NASCAR Cup Series start at Homestead. He qualified 25th and finished 17th in his one Xfinity Series start, typically behind A.J. Allmendinger and ahead of Josh Williams. However, that isn't enough experience to make him necessarily valuable at Homestead or really any oval. The fact that he qualified […]


Austin Cindric's Increased Staying Power In Races May Make Him More Valuable

Although Austin Cindric had a reputation of fading to mid-pack in most of the races where he qualified well, that definitely seems to have stopped in 2025 as he has seemed to have a lot more staying power up front. In last week's race at Las Vegas, he overcame a loose wheel after winning Stage […]


Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Unlikely To Gain Enough Positions For DFS Value

Despite Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s reputation as a superspeedway driver, Homestead has arguably been his worst superspeedway. At all tracks where Stenhouse has failed to ever earn a top-10 finish in the NASCAR Cup Series, he has made more starts at Homestead than any other despite some solid qualifying runs. He might have some DFS value, […]


John Hunter Nemechek Delivers His Second-Best Qualifying Run At Homestead

John Hunter Nemechek qualified seventh for Sunday's Homestead race, which is actually his best-ever as a full-time driver since his fifth-place finish at Charlotte in 2020 came with metric qualifying, and his fourth-place starting position in 2022 also came at Homestead while he was filling in for the injured Kurt Busch. It would be an […]


Cole Custer Has Been Hapless At Homestead In Cup Series

Cole Custer was something of a Homestead master in the NASCAR Xfinity Series with a win in 2017, two poles, and three second-place finishes, but his Cup Series performances at the track have left little to be desired as he has finished between 22nd and 24th in all three of his previous starts there for […]


J.J. Yeley Needs Attrition To Gain Positions At Homestead

J.J. Yeley makes his second start of the 2025 season for the NY Racing Team on Sunday at Homestead, but don't expect him to be any sort of contender. Not only did Yeley qualify in 37th and last place for the race, he was so slow that pole-sitter Alex Bowman and 35th-place qualifier Shane van […]


Bubba Wallace Wrecks At Las Vegas But Shows Promising Speed

23XI Racing has always been fast on flat 1.5-mile ovals, and Sunday's Las Vegas race was no exception, even though neither Bubba Wallace nor his teammate Tyler Reddick ended up with good finishes. Despite starting 20th, Wallace drove up to fourth at the end of Stage 1 and then took the lead twice before being […]


Alex Bowman Recovers From Loose Wheel To Finish Seventh

Alex Bowman started sixth and finished seventh at Las Vegas, so you might figure he had his typical run-of-the-mill run where he ran in the back half of the top 10 of the race without really contending, but his run was actually a lot stronger than that. Bowman led two laps early after passing Austin […]


Austin Cindric Wins Stage 1, But Loose Wheel Foils Victory Bid

In a race where all the Team Penske drivers and their Wood Brothers satellite entry for Josh Berry seemed quite fast, Austin Cindric outdueled Alex Bowman to win Stage 1 at Sunday's Las Vegas race -- his first stage win on a non-drafting oval since Gateway in 2022. He still continuously ran in the top […]


William Byron Loses Las Vegas Race On Strategy But Expands Points Lead

William Byron entered Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Las Vegas as the points leader and expanded his lead over Christopher Bell to 29 points after a fourth-place finish. Byron entered the race as one of the pre-race favorites and did briefly lead twice for 10 laps after passing Bubba Wallace then Michael McDowell for […]


Ryan Preece Earns Best Career Non-Drafting Oval Finish At Las Vegas

One week after leading at Phoenix due to his alternative-tire strategy, Ryan Preece surprisingly delivered the best finish of his career on a non-drafting oval in Sunday's Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas, finishing third in a race where his two RFK Racing teammates Chris Buescher and Brad Keselowski did not run very well. Although Preece […]


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