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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

1177 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

Daniel Suarez Runs Well, Overshadowed by Teammate and Replacement

If Daniel Suárez was going to run well anywhere as a lame-duck driver in his final season for Trackhouse Racing, it's probably not surprising that he delivered what could be his final top-10 finish on the Charlotte roval on Sunday. He seemed to benefit somewhat from his teammate Shane van Gisbergen's speed to finish seventh […]


Kyle Larson Will Likely Go for the Win Over Stage Points

Although Kyle Larson has been taking a lot of heat for both embarrassing crashes and a downturn in performance over the summer, he enters the Charlotte roval race with a 54-point lead over Ross Chastain for the final playoff spot, meaning Larson will clinch a spot in the Round of 8 as long as he […]


Ryan Blaney Might Look Past Charlotte Roval to Focus on Last Two Playoff Rounds

Since Ryan Blaney advanced to the Round of 8 via his win at Loudon, it would not be surprising if the No. 12 team looks past this week's race at the Charlotte roval to prepare for the Round of 8 and the Phoenix race as his teammate Joey Logano has frequently done in previous playoffs. […]


Denny Hamlin Could Focus on Stage Points to Clinch Round of 8 Spot

Although Denny Hamlin was pretty consistent on road courses in the Gen 6 era of NASCAR, he's been a lot sloppier in the Next Gen era, crashing out of several races after winning the pole. The Charlotte Roval was never Hamlin's best road course, as he only earned a single top-10 finish at the track, […]


Bubba Wallace Unlikely to Make the Round of 8

After being roughed up by his boss Denny Hamlin on the last lap at Kansas, Bubba Wallace probably won't make the Round of 8 now, but the once-subpar road racer has picked up a little speed on road courses in recent years with seventh and ninth-place finishes at the Charlotte roval in the last three […]


Austin Cindric Very Unlikely to Advance to Round of 8

Although Austin Cindric is quite unlikely to actually advance to the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs and he is nowhere near as good on road courses as his reputation, he's still pretty decent on them and finished fourth in last year's Charlotte roval race. However, he started fifth last year and […]


Alex Bowman Reliably Consistent at Charlotte Roval

Alex Bowman has been reliably consistent at the Charlotte roval and in 2019, he made a gallant come-from-behind drive to finish second in the race and make the Round of 12 even though he was below the cutline entering the race. In his first five starts here, he finished in the top ten every time, […]


Daniel Suarez Unlikely to Run Well at Charlotte

In what could be Daniel Suárez's last road race in the NASCAR Cup Series, while starting 20th, unsurprisingly far behind his teammates Shane van Gisbergen and Ross Chastain, who qualified second and 12th, respectively. Although road courses used to be a strength for him, he hasn't really had any strengths this year in what has […]


Carson Hocevar Will Likely Earn a Lot of Place-Differential Points at Charlotte

Carson Hocevar is a strong option for DFS lineups for Sunday's race at the Charlotte Roval. Last year, he started 20th and finished 12th, and this year, he qualified even worse (27th). When you consider that he has been typically faster this year than last year, he stands a solid chance of gaining a lot […]


Brad Keselowski Probably Won't be Viable for DFS

Brad Keselowski has typically been a strong choice on paper for DFS lineups most weeks because he tends to qualify poorly in races and run better, but he has often not delivered finishes commensurate with his running position, so he's also been a pretty risky choice for most of this year and not as reliable […]


Ty Dillon Earns Best Qualifying Result at Charlotte Roval

Ty Dillon earned the best qualifying result of his NASCAR Cup Series career on a road course on Saturday at the Charlotte roval, where he qualified 16th, breaking his previous record of 24th originally set at Watkins Glen during his 2017 rookie season. Although he's occasionally shown moments on road courses, such as displaying unexpected […]


Despite Power-Steering Failure, Denny Hamlin Dominates and Finishes Second at Kansas

As has become almost routine of late, Denny Hamlin dominated Sunday's race at Kansas, winning both stages and setting a personal record of 156 laps led at the track despite losing his power steering in Stage 3 in one of his grittiest performances. After starting second, Hamlin took the lead from his teammate Chase Briscoe […]


Bubba Wallace's Playoff Bid Likely Ends After Scrape With Boss at Kansas

Kansas is usually 23XI Racing's best track, and Sunday's race was no exception as both Bubba Wallace and his teammate Tyler Reddick were in the hunt for the win with both drivers seemingly in a must-win situation to advance to the Round of 8. Despite starting seventh, he fell out of the top 10 on […]


William Byron Runs Poorly, Still Finishes in the Top 10

For a while, it looked like William Byron might be in danger of missing the Round of 8 as he was bafflingly slow for most of a race where Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson regularly ran in the top five. Byron's average running position of 17th was his worst on an unrestricted oval since Pocono […]


Tyler Reddick Finishes Seventh at Kansas Despite Distractions

Tyler Reddick's mind was obviously elsewhere as his four-month old son Rookie is currently in an intensive care unit in North Carolina where he has been hooked up to a ventilator and is showing signs of heart failure. Despite that fact and a botched pit stop, Reddick recovered to be an outside contender for the […]


Shane Van Gisbergen Earns First Cup Series Top-10 Finish on an Oval

Shane van Gisbergen earned his best oval finish of 10th in Sunday's Kansas race after deftly avoiding a string of wrecks in Stage 3. Although he wasn't very fast with an average running position of only 24th, and he only spent 23.8% of laps inside the top 15, his great control from Supercars often helps […]


Christopher Bell Has Been Consistent at Kansas Despite Rarely Contending to Win

Although Christopher Bell is one of the best drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series, intermediates to some extent have been his Achilles' heel. Despite winning four poles at Kansas, Bell has rarely factored for the win here but last year's fall race was a big exception when he led 122 laps until hitting the wall […]


Miserable Qualifying Result Makes Joey Logano a Top DFS Contender

A week after dominating the first half of the race at Loudon, Joey Logano was astonishingly slow in Kansas qualifying, where he starts 35th and was even outqualified by Cody Ware, although he starts one row ahead of his teammate Ryan Blaney after Blaney crashed in practice and Logano blew a tire. Nonetheless, you should […]


Chase Elliott Likely to Make Round of 8, but Has Hardly Been Inspiring

Chase Elliott is aimlessly drifting through the playoffs via consistency despite not factoring for many race wins, but with Kansas and the Charlotte roval remaining in this round, he probably should advance to the Round of 8 regardless. Elliott starts fourth tomorrow and he leads more races here than not with six races where he […]


Austin Cindric Unlikely to Advance in NASCAR Playoffs

Austin Cindric is probably not going to advance to the Round of 8 this year since he rarely posts good finishes, even though he has a lot of good runs. Cindric sits 19 points behind his former Xfinity Series rival Chase Briscoe for the final transfer spot, but Briscoe is starting on the pole while […]


Ty Gibbs Likely to Finish Much Worse Than He Starts

Ty Gibbs's historical record at Kansas is quite similar to the early record of his predecessor, Kyle Busch, when Kansas was generally regarded as his best track. Despite the consistent speed his grandfather's team has shown at the track, Gibbs has tended to qualify well and consistently finish worse than he starts. He did finish […]


Josh Berry Might Be Let Down by Penske's Slow Cars This Weekend

Although Josh Berry was eliminated from the opening round of the NASCAR playoffs, he rebounded last week with his best career race at Loudon. Berry is typically very fast at intermediate tracks and he'll likely be undervalued because of his shaky finishing record here, particularly his opening lap crash in last year's race, but in […]


Austin Dillon Qualifies Too Well for Place-Differential Points at Kansas

Austin Dillon used to be pretty solid at Kansas in his early years in the NASCAR Cup Series in the Gen 6 along with five top-10 finishes, with his most recent coming in 2023 with the Next Gen car, but admittedly, he has not finished better than 10th since his sixth-place finish in 2016. He […]


Despite Poor Qualifying Result, Stay Away from Kyle Busch

Despite his awful first decade at Kansas, Kyle Busch was quite productive with the Gen 6 car, with which he won twice and led 320 laps. He had some speed with the Next Gen car as well with 70 laaps led and a third-place finish in the spring 2022 race, but he really hasn't had […]


Shane Van Gisbergen Not Worth Starting at Kansas

Shane van Gisbergen did not run very well in his Kansas debut in the NASCAR Cup Series, starting 34th and finishing 20th with a weak average running position of 28th, but that is admittedly typical for nearly all drivers learning the Next Gen car on ovals for the first time. He has tended to have […]


Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Arguably Becoming NASCAR's Most Invisible Driver

Although Ricky Stenhouse Jr. hasn't crashed as much as he did in many previous seasons, he has arguably been less relevant. Despite cleaning up his racecraft somewhat, he now sits 28th in points and is poised to have the worst points finish of his NASCAR Cup Series career. He's unlikely to turn it around at […]


Michael McDowell th Most Mediocre on Intermediate Tracks

Michael McDowell does not typically run well at Kansas. He has only scored a single top ten here in his entire career, although that was recent in the 2024 spring race where he started eighth, finished tenth, and actually had decent speed throughout. He's certainly had some intermediate speed for Spire Motorsports this year, particularly […]


Lame-Duck Daniel Suarez has Miserable Kansas Record

Proving that results patterns can significantly diverge even at similarly-styled racetracks, Daniel Suárez has been pretty miserable at Kansas despite its similarity to Las Vegas, where he had a pretty consistent record. At Kansas, however, Suárez has earned only a single top-10 finish since his career-best seventh-place showing in his Kansas debut in 2017. He […]


Josh Berry Recovers from Spin to Finish Second

Josh Berry had almost certainly the best drive of his NASCAR Cup Series career, recovering from a disastrous string of three straight last-place finishes to start the playoffs. After starting third, he remained in the top five all race until being spun by Shane van Gisbergen on lap 82. Miraculously, Berry drove back through the […]


Joey Logano Delivers Playoff Speed After Regular-Season Mediocrity

Joey Logano has often been criticized for his lack of consistency by people who erroneously believe the Winston Cup points system still matters, but his team clearly chooses to go for stage points while being indifferent to consistency to maximize his probability of winning the championship, even at the expense of consistent results. Logano has […]


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