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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

726 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

Zane Smith Benefiting From Front Row Motorsports Speed

Although Front Row Motorsports has not been as dominant in drafting-track qualifying this year as Michael McDowell was last year, all three FRM cars were still very fast in qualifying, as Zane Smith qualified seventh amidst a phalanx of Fords. However, even though he grew much more consistent in the second half of his rookie […]


After Surprise Daytona Run, Cole Custer Likely To Outperform Past Results At Atlanta

After unexpectedly battling for the win in the Daytona 500, Cole Custer starts 23rd at Atlanta, considerably worse than most of the other Ford drivers in a race Ford looks poised to dominate. Although he hasn't had a very strong finishing record on drafting tracks in general in the NASCAR Cup Series, his speed last […]


Too Few Cars Will Crash For J.J. Yeley To Get A Good Finish At Atlanta

J.J. Yeley qualified last for Sunday's race at Atlanta with a qualifying time over 1.1 seconds behind pole-sitter Ryan Blaney and 0.3 seconds behind the next-slowest driver B.J. McLeod. Although some people might see value in adding Yeley to DFS lineups because he could theoretically gain positions in the field, that would only likely happen […]


Denny Hamlin Fights For The Win But Gets Eliminated In Last-Lap Crash

Denny Hamlin had a rather anonymous run for most of Sunday's Daytona 500 as it seemed like the Toyotas were saving fuel for most of the event before they made their presence known in Stage 3. Nonetheless, Hamlin patiently worked through the field and took the lead with six laps to go before Austin Cindric […]


Austin Cindric Has Best Run At Daytona 500 Until Last-Lap Crash

Austin Cindric probably had the best run in Sunday's Daytona 500, leading 59 laps, spending 145 laps in the top five, and posting an average running position of 5.72, each of which led the field. Although it looked like his teammate Joey Logano had the measure of him in Stage 1, Cindric took charge in […]


Justin Allgaier Earns First Top-10 Finish Since 2015

Even though Justin Allgaier caused three crashes in Saturday's NASCAR Xfinity Series race, he managed to keep it clean and evaded all the wrecks in the Daytona 500 to earn an unexpected ninth-place finish -- his best in a NASCAR Cup Series race since finishing eighth at Bristol in 2015 and only his second top-10 […]


Martin Truex Jr.'s Sour Luck Continues With Early Daytona 500 Crash

Martin Truex Jr.'s bad luck from 2024 continued into 2025 as he was taken out in the Daytona 500 through no fault of his own when he was involed in a crash at the start of Stage 2 when Joey Logano could not get up to speed. This caused the entire outside lane to check […]


Helio Castroneves Eliminated From Daytona 500 In Crash With Teammate

Four-time Indy 500 winner Hélio Castroneves was eliminated from his first Daytona 500 start after leader Joey Logano could not get back up to speed at the start of Stage 2 due to a paper bag in his grille, which stacked up the outside line and resulted in a multi-car pileup when John Hunter Nemechek […]


Ross Chastain Has A Real Shot Of Winning But Should Be Avoided For DFS

Ross Chastain came oh so close to winning last year's Daytona 500 as he attempted a pass on leader William Byron and was alongside coming to the white flag just as Corey LaJoie bumped Austin Cindric into Chastain, spinning out both drivers and helping cost Chastain a playoff bid. Nonetheless, the Trackhouse Racing cars definitely […]


Chris Buescher Undervalued For The Win At Daytona

Chris Buescher starts sixth in Sunday's Daytona 500 after finishing third in the second Duel race. He significantly contented to win that event, as Austin Cindric made his final pass for the win with two laps remaining. Considering the fact that Buescher won here in 2023 in addition to the speed he showed in the […]


William Byron Undervalued For The Win But Should Be Avoided For DFS

William Byron's odds of winning are placed at only 17-1 at DraftKings, surprisingly ranking ninth in odds despite winning last year's Daytona 500, along with three other drafting-track races, and starting fifth in Sunday's race. His odds are probably lower than you'd expect because the Chevies in general did not seem to be as fast […]


Ricky Stenhouse Jr. A Very Worthy Daytona Bet

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. may have won the 2023 Daytona 500, the last drafting-track race at Talladega, and both Talladega races in 2017, but he sure has not done a whole lot else in recent years. Nonetheless, his knack for winning these sorts of races, including literally the last race on this track type, suggests he […]


Austin Dillon Unlikely To Contend At Daytona After Justin Alexander's Departure

Austin Dillon has had a knack for pulling off inexplicable wins at times, particularly on plate tracks after wrecking the leader, but don't count on history repeating itself in Sunday's Daytona 500. For one thing, it seems like lately he only runs well when Justin Alexander is his crew chief, and he has been replaced […]


Jimmie Johnson Won't Run Well Enough To Be Worthy Of DFS Play

After running out of fuel in his second Duel race, two-time Daytona 500 winner Jimmie Johnson fell from running as high as second to an eventual 19th-place finish. As a result, he starts 40th and next-to-last in Sunday's race as he was forced to advance to the Daytona 500 by virtue of his qualifying position […]


Ryan Preece Probably Won't Contend At Daytona 500

Ryan Preece makes his debut with RFK Racing in Sunday's Daytona 500, starting from the 27th position but he does seem to have speed as he qualified third in single-car qualifying and his RFK teammates both led in the second Duel race with Chris Buescher significantly contending for the win. As a result, Preece is […]


Michael McDowell Likely To Perform Worse At Daytona This Year

Although Michael McDowell has a reputation as a drafting expert because of his 2021 Daytona 500 win, the fact that he has eight top-10 finishes there and no more than four on any other track make him one to avoid this year. His actual finishing record at Daytona has not been so hot, as he […]


Justin Allgaier Drastically Overrated By All DraftKings Metrics

Justin Allgaier is making JR Motorsports' debut in the NASCAR Cup Series in Sunday's Daytona 500 after a late charge to finish ninth in the first Duel race. However, he seems drastically overvalued everywhere on DraftKings, where he is given 25-1 odds to win -- equal with Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher, who are both […]


Todd Gilliland Overvalued At Daytona 500

Although many people expected Todd Gilliland to be a significant contender for the Daytona 500 pole, considering how many poles his ex-teammate Michael McDowell won in his No. 34 car last year, he only qualified 14th before both starting and finishing seventh in the second Duel race, where he was not really much of a […]


Corey LaJoie Not A Good Option For DFS But Might Be A Solid Bet For A Top-10 Finish

Although Corey LaJoie became the butt of jokes after a string of crashes last summer, he is actually quite serviceable at Daytona, especially in the Daytona 500. He has never crashed out of this race in eight previous starts and his average finish of 10.2 over the last five Daytona 500s is actually the best […]


Cole Custer Has Low Expectations But Might Be Worthy Of DFS Play

Upon his return to the NASCAR Cup Series after his Xfinity Series title in 2023, Cole Custer both started and finished 16th in Duel Race 2 and was generally uncompetitive throughout the event. Even with the recent history of Ford dominance on drafting tracks, he isn't worth considering betting on him for the win even […]


Ty Dillon Overachieves This Week

Ty Dillon starts seventh in Sunday's Daytona 500 after finishing third in the first duel race at Daytona. He was directly behind Bubba Wallace on the final lap of the race until he switched lanes to pick up his Kaulig Racing teammate A.J. Allmendinger to attempt to draft around Wallace for the win. Unfortunately, he […]


Martin Truex Jr. Uncompetitive In Duel Race But Still Makes Daytona 500

Martin Truex Jr. had already advanced to the Daytona 500 on the basis of his qualifying time, thereby locking his Tricon Garage entry into the race, but he seldom factored into the first Duel race, where he started 12th, finished 15th, and rarely was anywhere near contention on a night his fellow Toyota drivers like […]


Justin Allgaier Advances To Daytona 500

Although it looked a little precarious for a moment, Justin Allgaier did advance to the Daytona 500 by finishing ninth in the first Duel race, finishing highest among the five non-chartered drivers to give his JR Motorsport team its first start in the NASCAR Cup Series. Although everyone expected him to advance over J.J. Yeley […]


Ty Dillon Surprisingly Battles For The Win In First Duel Race

Although Ty Dillon has always been lightly regarded, he matched his best-ever NASCAR Cup Series finish of third on his full-time debut with Kaulig Racing in Thursday's first Duel race. He has had moments on drafting tracks before and earned both of his top-five finishes in point races at Daytona and Talladega and even earned […]


B.J. McLeod Doesn't Have The Speed To Make The Daytona 500

After selling his charter to Live Fast Motorsports, B.J. McLeod finished 17th in Thursday's second Duel race and suffered his second consecutive DNQ in the Daytona 500, which hardly came as a surprise. Even with the estimated $40 million he received from selling his charter, Live Fast still does not have a great deal of […]


J.J. Yeley Misses Second Straight Daytona 500

Although J.J. Yeley initially looked like a long shot to advance into the Daytona 500, considering he drives for the historically subpar NY Racing Team, Yeley ran surprisingly well in the first duel race as he and Justin Allgaier ran together for large portions of the event and Yeley was even ahead for a while […]


Chase Briscoe Earns Toyota's First Daytona 500 Pole

Chase Briscoe kicked off his Joe Gibbs Racing stint with a bang by unexpectedly winning the pole for Sunday's Daytona 500, earning Toyota's first pole in the Great American Race since the marque entered the NASCAR Cup Series in 2007. Although on the surface this might appear surprising, Briscoe previously won the pole for the […]


Justin Allgaier Attempts To Make JR Motorsports's NASCAR Cup Series Debut

After winning a long-overdue NASCAR Xfinity Championship in 2024 for JR Motorsports, Justin Allgaier was rewarded by getting the opportunity to drive JRM's first-ever NASCAR Cup Series entry for next Sunday's Daytona 500 in the No. 40 car, sponsored for this race by country star Chris Stapleton's Traveller Whiskey brand. Although he only qualified 33rd […]


Jimmie Johnson Outqualifies Teammates To Advance To Daytona 500

Jimmie Johnson clinched a spot in Sunday's Daytona 500 by qualifying 29th in Daytona 500 qualifying on Wednesday evening, which ranked second among drivers for non-chartered teams. Johnson's qualifying run was impressive, as he outqualified both of his full-time drivers Erik Jones and John Hunter Nemechek while tying his Toyota stablemate Bubba Wallace in qualifying, […]


B.J. McLeod Likely Needs Attrition To Make Daytona 500

Although B.J. McLeod missed last year's Daytona 500 after he sold his Live Fast Motorsports charter to Spire Motorsports at the end of the 2023 season, he's trying to qualify for the race again this year, but his odds likely aren't much better. He qualified only 43rd in yesterday's qualifying session and posted by far […]


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