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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

1177 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

Despite No Wins on Drafting Tracks, Kyle Larson is Improving

Although Kyle Larson isn't particularly known as a drafting-track master -- he has yet to win any races either using the classic restrictor plates or the more recent tapered spacers -- he is improving and finished fourth and second in the last two Talladega races despite not really contending for the win. The Hendrick cars […]


Despite Winning at Talladega, Tyler Reddick's Drafting Record Is Not So Hot

Tyler Reddick won the spring race at Talladega in 2024, but it was a little cheap as the Toyotas were the first manufacturer to make their final pit stop in that race, which vaulted Reddick into the lead after the crash John Hunter Nemechek triggered took out most of the others. Since that allowed him […]


Ross Chastain's Poor Qualifying Makes him a Strong DFS Option at Talladega

Although Trackhouse Racing's speed has seriously stagnated on ovals lately, that doesn't matter at Talladega, where many races aren't decided on speed. Ross Chastain won here once in 2022 when he almost stumbled into the lead and led only one lap after Erik Jones' drafting help crashed behind him. He factors for the lead more […]


Chris Buescher's Excellent Crash Avoidance Could Reap Dividends at Talladega

Although he has seemed a lot slower this year than in previous seasons, Chris Buescher's greatest strength is that he arguably crashes less than any other driver on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit. This year, he has only crashed out of a race once, but that came in this spring's race at Talladega when a […]


If Ty Gibbs' Team Executes a Better Strategy, he Could Win at Talladega

Ty Gibbs starts 18th at Talladega on Sunday, a track where he has never finished better than 13th. However, he had a great deal of speed in the spring race, leading a race-high 32 laps before the extra fuel he burnt running out front caused many other drivers to jump him after the final exchange […]


Daniel Suarez Hopes for Clutch Talladega Win to Remain in the NASCAR Cup Series

After Justin Haley was released from Spire Motorsports this week, many observers are expecting Daniel Suárez to be his replacement. One way of likely ensuring that would be if he wins at Talladega today. The Trackhouse Racing cars have tended to consistently have speed on these tracks, what with Ross Chastain winning the first Next […]


Josh Berry Might Contend at Talladega

Considering the dominance the Fords in general and the Penske Fords in particular have shown on drafting tracks in recent years, it wouldn't come as much surprise if Josh Berry won at Talladega on Sunday, especially after the inferior Harrison Burton already won at Daytona in the Penske-aligned Wood Brothers car last year. However, in […]


Austin Dillon Doesn't Lead Enough at Talladega to Contend for Wins

Although Austin Dillon has won two drafting-track races, both of those came at Daytona, where he roughed up the leader. Although theoretically anyone could win at Talladega, Dillon seems like he would have only the remotest chance because to win at Talladega, you still need to be able to put yourself in the lead, and […]


Christopher Bell Sits Third in Points After Quiet Third-Place Finish

Although Christopher Bell has not been as dominant as in previous years, he's having arguably his most consistent season with a series-best 11.4 average finish. Those trends continued in yesterday's race at Las Vegas as he never led in a race where his teammate Chase Briscoe won the pole and his other teammate Denny Hamlin […]


Chase Briscoe Passes Denny Hamlin at the Start, but Hamlin Gets Him in the End

Chase Briscoe did what he needed to do to hold serve in the NASCAR playoffs on Sunday. After qualifying second, he blew around his teammate Denny Hamlin on the opening lap and led the first 35 laps until William Byron beat him out of the pits on the first green-flag pit cycle. Briscoe consistently ran […]


Joey Logano Falling Out of Playoff Picture Despite Other Contenders' Crashes

Although Joey Logano has a knack for winning the first race of the penultimate round of the NASCAR playoffs en route to the championship, he perhaps surprisingly wasn't much of a factor in Sunday's Las Vegas race. After starting ninth, he consistently ran in the back of the top 10 until a pit stop during […]


Stage 1 Crash Puts Ryan Blaney in Severe Playoff Trouble

Ryan Blaney had a nightmare situation befall him in the first race of the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs on Sunday at Las Vegas. After qualifying 14th, Blaney did not make much progress, consistently running between 12th and 14th, until a blown tire sent him straight into the wall with nine […]


Chase Elliott Should Run Well at Las Vegas

Although he no longer seems to have the blinding speed he once had in the Gen 6 era, Chase Elliott has gotten his consistency back as a modern-day analogue to what the Labonte brothers were 25-30 years ago. It seems likely he doesn't have the speed to make the Championship Round, particularly since he's never […]


Kyle Larson's Conservatism May Keep him from Replicating Previous Las Vegas Drive

Although Kyle Larson only finished ninth in the March race at Las Vegas, he was pretty spectacular, as he made five passes for the lead without being passed once for the lead himself before he was ultimately foiled by pit strategy. While he has been nowhere near as fast in the second half of the […]


After Josh Berry's Las Vegas Win, Ryan Blaney Should be a Top Contender

Although Ryan Blaney has led only 84 laps at Las Vegas, it still seems like he's kind of overdue for a win, here particularly after the 2020 race where he was leading when a caution came out with five laps left, which handed the race win to Blaney's teammate Joey Logano after Blaney pitted. After […]


Chase Briscoe has Definitely Improved on Intermediate Tracks

Chase Briscoe continued his run as NASCAR's most dominant qualifier with a second-place qualifying run on Saturday at Las Vegas. Although he finished fourth in the fall race in 2022, he normally doesn't run well here, although he has run better at most tracks since he switched to Joe Gibbs Racing after Stewart-Haas Racing, which […]


Tyler Reddick An Excellent DFS Option on Paper

On paper, Tyler Reddick seems like one of the best DFS options since he is generally regarded as a flat-intermediate master. He had five top-10 finishes in six starts here from 2021-2024, and he also led 34 laps in the March race before he got trapped a lap down after making a green-flag pit stop […]


Alex Bowman May Not Get the Attention he Needs at Las Vegas

Alex Bowman typically runs well at Las Vegas as he does on most flat intermediates. He won the first Next Gen-era race in 2022 here, drawing the ire of Kyle Busch, who whined after the race about how Bowman backed into most of his victories. His luck has mostly run out since then, especially after […]


Brad Keselowski's 34th-Place Qualifying Run Makes Him a Must-Start in DFS

Brad Keselowski used to be a master at Las Vegas wih three wins from 2014-2018, but as with most tracks, he hasn't been much of a contender here with the Next Gen car, although he did lead 38 laps and finish fourth in the 2023 fall event. His 34th-place qualifying run yesterday is the worst […]


Shane Van Gisbergen Still Not Really Viable for DFS Play

Although Shane van Gisbergen hasn't typically been fast in oval races yet, he's now outqualified both his Trackhouse Racing teammates Ross Chastain and Daniel Suárez several times, and his speed in recent weeks has rapidly improved in oval races as well. He'll probably never win one, but much like his Supercars champion predecessor Marcos Ambrose, […]


Josh Berry's Chance for a Las Vegas Sweep Looks Unbelievably Remote

Although Josh Berry's win in the March race at Las Vegas seemed to mark a breakthrough for him in the NASCAR Cup Series, in retrospect, it's starting to seem like more of a fluke. This is not to say Berry hasn't had a number of good runs this season - his Loudon drive was probably […]


Carson Hocevar a Top-Tier DFS Option at Las Vegas

Although the fan base seems to be giving up on Carson Hocevar's potential as he has caused more crashes and been arguably sloppier than he even was last year, avoid him at your own peril. Hocevar hasn't posted a particularly good finish at Las Vegas yet, but Spire Motorsports clearly has speed here if they […]


Ryan Preece Probably Won't Finish Third Again at Las Vegas

Ryan Preece earned a career-best third-place finish in the last race at Las Vegas in March, but he ran nowhere near as well as that implied. His average running position of 15th was the worst of any of the drivers who finished in the top ten as the No. 60 team made an excellent strategy […]


Las Vegas is One of Michael McDowell's Worst Tracks

Las Vegas is typically one of Michael McDowell's worst tracks in terms of finishing results. Although he shockingly won the pole for the March race and earned his best career finish here, that finish was a relatively mediocre 16th. This means McDowell is almost guaranteed to finish worse than his 18th-place starting position and is […]


Despite Erik Jones's General Intermediate Strength, Las Vegas Is An Exception

Although Erik Jones is typically noted for his superspeedway strength and he often runs well on intermediates when his cars are fast enough, Las Vegas is a big exception. Jones has never finished better than eighth here and only led a single lap here, although surprisingly it came in the March race here during a […]


John Hunter Nemechek Probably Won't Contend in Vegas This Year

John Hunter Nemechek starts 26th for Sunday's Las Vegas race, just as he did in last year's event when he finished a career-best ninth. However, that finish masked a mediocre overall performance, as his average running position of 18th was only barely better than in his other Las Vegas starts (even in his ill-fated 2020 […]


Christopher Bell Gives Shane van Gisbergen a Brief Challenge

Christopher Bell was the last NASCAR Cup Series driver besides Shane van Gisbergen to win on a road course at the Circuit of the Americas early this year and he backed that up at the Charlotte roval where he started seventh and seldom ran worse than that all day. Although he never quite worked his […]


Ross Chastain Misses Round of 8 After Speeding Penalty and Failed Banzai Move

In what was otherwise a fairly run-of-the-mill Charlotte roval race, Ross Chastain stole the headlines by intentionally spinning out his long-standing rival Denny Hamlin on the last lap after Chastain fell below the playoff cutline for the Round of 8. It looked like it was going to be a struggle for Chastain to advance to […]


Austin Cindric Unsurprisingly Fails to Advance to Round of 8

Nobody really expected Austin Cindric to advance to the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs to begin with. His frequent leading rarely gets finishes, so it came as no surprise that he failed to advance at the Charlotte roval, especially since he never emerged as a frequent contender for road-course wins like […]


Ryan Preece's Improved Pace Continues at Charlotte Roval

Ryan Preece is not particularly noted for his road-racing prowess, but he has tended to run better this year on all track types than he ever has before, so it probably wasn't as shocking that he ended up finishing sixth in Monday's Charlotte roval race. The RFK Racing cars clearly have speed on these tracks, […]


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