Points League Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 15

July 5, 2021

Nicklaus Gaut's H2H points league waiver wire pickups for Week 15 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season, identifying free agents to add and pitchers to stream.

We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.

Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help.

These waiver-wire adds are for the week of July 5 - July 11, looking at players below 50% rostered for ESPN and Yahoo! Stats and rankings are calculated using games through Saturday, July 3.

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Know Your System

If you've read me even a little, you likely know what I'm going to say...You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Don't be fooled into believing you can just make rough adjustments in your head, bumping up guys with high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. Every point, in every category, counts.

For example, ESPN and Fantrax are virtually identical in their scoring for hitters and roster size. The only difference is that stolen bases are worth one more point on Fantrax and ESPN subtracts one point per strikeout. That's the difference between Ronald Acuna Jr. being a top-five hitter versus top-20.

If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.

For example, my home league started on a now-defunct platform before moving first to ESPN and is now at Fantrax. But our scoring is basically ESPN standard only with two points for stolen bases and a handful of other minor adjustments.

If you look above, you'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes you can get away with some "close enough" calls. IE. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.

Waiver Wire Leaderboards

In addition to our overall waiver wire leaderboards, we're deep enough into the season that we'll also start doing a 14-day leaderboard (21 days for pitchers), as well, giving us a window into recent production. The charts are updated prior to Saturday's games, on stats and ownerships. All leaderboards, overall and 14-day, are sorted according to the player's APR*, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version.

*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)

The Hansels

Let the recency bias wash over you because these players are just so hot, right now. So, just for fun, let's start making a chart of the players in the top-100 of APR over the last two weeks before diving into the position-by-position analysis.

First Base

Must Add

• Joey Votto, CIN - Since returning from the IL on June 8, Votto has slashed .298/.379/.548 over 95 PA, with six home runs, 15 runs scored, and 20 RBI. He has a 51 APR over the last two weeks but has started to turn it back on over his last 10 games, collecting five two-hit games, with two home runs and a .376 wOBA, while slashing .308/.341/.538 over 41 PA. Widely available.
• Bobby Bradley, CLE - Given his plate discipline (28.7% K%, 17.1% SwStr%) and .322 OBP, it remains to be seen how viable Bradley will be in points over the long term but he's remained hot enough that it might be time to give him a chance. Over his first 87 PA in 2021, Bradley is averaging more points per PA (on every platform) than every first baseman besides Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He needs to be picked up until he cools down.

Can Add

• Garrett Cooper, MIA - Before hitting the IL in early June, Cooper was quietly turning into a solid source of production and since returning on June 25, he's gotten right back to it. In his 25 PA since then, Cooper has an 87 APR (180 APR for the year), collecting 10 hits and slashing .526/.640/.947, with two home runs and two doubles.
• Christian Walker, ARI - Walker missed large chunks of April and May to injuries but has started going back to the boring (and valuable) compiler that he can be in most point formats. He has a 90 APR over the last two weeks, slashing .289/.360/.467 over 50 PA, with two home runs and eight runs scored.
• Pavin Smith, SEA
• Gavin Sheets, CHW

Desperate Adds

• Miguel Sano, MIN
• Bobby Dalbec, BOS
• Miguel Cabrera, DET
• Ji-Man Choi, TB

Notable IL

• Brandon Belt, SF
• Daniel Vogelbach, MIL
• Colin Moran, PIT

Second Base

Must Adds

Jonathan India has left the low-owned fold but second base remains really deep on most wires. Pick freely!

• Kike Hernandez, BOS - When he's running well, Boston has let him have leadoff, which is where he's now been for seven straight games, after spending seven games near the bottom. Since the start of this last run at the top of the order, Hernandez is slashing .385/.515/.885 over 33 PA, with four home runs, an 18.2% BB% and just a 9.1% K%. That's points gold, baby.
• Cesar Hernandez, CLE - He's dipped to a 127 APR over the last two weeks but Hernandez still has a 69 APR for the season among all hitters and, worst case, is a low-ceiling compiler who you can ride when hot, or use him to fill out the back your bench.
• Ty France, SEA - France keeps trucking along, with an 83 APR on this season and a 93 APR over the last two weeks.

Can Adds

• Jed Lowrie, OAK - Lowrie has gotten hot again and might be worth riding until he cools back off. He's collected two hits in five of his last 10 games, slashing .353/.389/.647, with three home runs and a .439 wOBA.
• Wilmer Flores, SF - Flores continues to prove he can be a points monster when playing every day. He has a 39 APR over the last two weeks and should continue to play until Evan Longoria returns.
• Starlin Castro, WSH - Castro is on a heater, slashing .367/.446/531 over the last two weeks, with a .419 wOBA and 165 wRC+.
• Jace Peterson, MIL - With Kolten Wong and Daniel Vogelbach both on the IL, Peterson continues to play every day and just keeps hitting. He's collected multiple hits in three of his last six games and is slashing .292/.413/.462 over his 80 PA since returning to big league action on June 8. He'll probably turn back into Jace Peterson sooner than later but when you post a 10 APR over two weeks, you should probably be paid attention to.
• Brendan Rodgers, COL
• Luis Arraez, MIN 

Desperate Adds

• Josh Harrison, WSH
• Donovan Solano, SF
• Jurickson Profar, SD
• Dylan Moore, SEA
• Tony Kemp, OAK - "He-llpp me-eeeeee...I'm turning back into Tony Ke--mmmmmpp".
• Jon Berti, MIA

Notable IL

• Kolten Wong, MIL
• Nick Madrigal, CHW
• David Bote, CHC
• Aledmys Diaz, HOU
• Christian Arroyo, BOS
• Tommy La Stella, SF

Third Base

Must Adds

• Times are still dire. Basically, all of the subpar options from the last few weeks are still available. You're much better off grabbing one of the third base-eligible second basemen from above.

Can Adds

• Jeimer Candelario, DET
• Yandy Diaz, TB
• Abraham Toro, HOU

Desperate Adds

• Asdrubal Cabrera, ARI 
• Hunter Dozier, KC
• Patrick Wisdom, CHC 
• Josh Fuentes, COL
• Phillip Evans, PIT

Notable IL 

• Evan Longoria, SF 
• Travis Shaw, MIL
• Brian Anderson, MIA
• Matt Duffy, TB
• Jake Lamb, CHW
• J.D. Davis, NYM

Shortstop

Must Adds

• J.P. Crawford, SEA 
• Willy Adames, MIL - Adames has stayed red hot, posting a 12 APR over the last two weeks, slashing .340/.444/.717, with five home runs and a .483 wOBA. He's also been moving on up the order, batting 2nd-4th in each of his last seven games.

Can Adds

• Luis Urias, MIL
• Paul DeJong, STL - DeJong has started to heat up over his last seven games, hitting two home runs and slashing .286/.444/.619, with a .451 wOBA and 192 wRC+.
• Jose Iglesias, LAA - Iglesias has a 121 APR over the last two weeks and is currently on a five-game heater, collecting nine hits and slashing .474/.524/.842, with two home runs and a .573 wOBA.
• Elvis Andrus, OAK - Andrus is most useful in leagues that penalize strikeouts, with his APR around 10-15 spots higher on ESPN and CBS than it is on Yahoo and Fantrax.

Desperate Adds

• Willi Castro, DET
• Miguel Rojas, MIA
• Amed Rosario, CLE 
• Nick Ahmed, ARI
• Nicky Lopez, KC 
• Kyle Farmer, CIN
• Kevin Newman, PIT

Notable IL

• Freddy Galvis, BAL
• Jonathan Villar, NYM
• Niko Goodrum, DET
• Erik Gonzalez, PIT
• Nico Hoerner, CHC
• Taylor Walls, TB

Outfielders

Must Adds

• Brandon Nimmo, NYM - He's been out of action since May 2 but don't forget how good Nimmo was before a finger injury. Batting leadoff almost every game, Nimmo is slashing .333/.435/.444 for the season after returning on July 3 and going 3-for-6, with two runs scored. Please don't make me get upset about Brandon Nimmo every week like I do Joey Votto...Please? He's a good hitter that gets on base a ton and will compile tons of PAs from the leadoff spot. That's points gold, I promise.
• Akil Baddoo, DET

Can Adds

• AJ Pollock, LAD - He's most valuable in daily leagues but Pollack has heated up over the last two weeks, slashing .278/.333/.639 over 39 PA, with three home runs and nine RBI.
• Eli White, TEX - White continues to get full-time PAs following the injury to Willie Calhoun and has been hot enough to be worth taking a look at, posting a 52 APR over the last two week. Since returning to the big leagues on June 8, White is slashing .273/.349/.481, with a .360 wOBA and four home runs.
• Andrew Vaughn, CHW
• Robbie Grossman, DET
• Odubel Herrera, PHI
• Austin Hays, BAL
• Manuel Margot, TB
• Joc Pederson, CHC
• Trevor Larnach, MIN
• Alex Kirilloff, MIN
• Jake Fraley, SEA - Fraley is a much better pickup in daily leagues, with excellent scoring rates across platforms, but his biggest value drag remains the playing time, even if he is still on the strong side of things.
• Victor Robles, WSH
• Taylor Ward, LAA - Ward's a more viable option in daily moves leagues, as his pts/PA rates have stayed steadily above-average.
• Anthony Santander, BAL
• LaMonte Wade Jr. - He's been sitting against lefties but crushes when he actually starts. Comparing him, for example, to Bryan Reynolds (22 APR), Wade scores .65 pts/PA on ESPN (Reynolds: .67 pts/PA) .78 pts/PA on CBS (Reynolds: .79 pts/PA), and 2.05 pts/PA on Yahoo (Reynolds: 2.11 pts/PA). Wade Jr. is an excellent fill-in for daily leagues but remains heavily schedule-dependant.

Desperate Adds

• Daz Cameron, DET
• Yonathan Daza, COL
• Jorge Soler, KC
• Harrison Bader, STL
• Ian Happ, CHC
• Brian Goodwin, CHW

Notable IL

• Justin Upton, LAA
• Josh Naylor, CLE
• Willie Calhoun, TEX
• Corey Dickerson, TOR
• Clint Frazier, NYY
• Jordan Luplow, CLE
• Mike Tauchman, SF
• Kyle Lewis, SEA
• Lorenzo Cain, MIL
• Nick Senzel, CIN
• Kyle Garlick, MIN
• Stephen Piscotty, OAK
• Aaron Hicks, NYY
• Kole Calhoun, ARI
• Victor Reyes, DET

Catchers

Must Adds

• Omar Narvaez, MIL - Narvaez stays steady and boring, with a 139 APR on the season and an 89 APR over the last two weeks, slashing .275/.375/.375, with a .336 wOBA. Nothing exciting but he plays most every day, which is more than you can say for most available catchers.

Can Adds

• Tyler Stephenson, CIN - Going by per-PA scoring rates, Stephenson is roughly the same type of scorer as Narvaez but his value continues to be hampered by the timeshare with Tucker Barnhart, as he's on the short side of the platoon. He's slashing .286/.342/.457 over the last two weeks, with a 152 APR. But he's also another player with a big value gap across the platforms, depending on strikeout penalties. He has a 138 and 148 APR on ESPN and CBS over the last two weeks but just a 162 and 158 APR on Yahoo and Fantrax.
• Jacob Stallings, PIT
• Mike Zunino, TB

Desperate Adds

• All catcher adds are desperate adds.

Notable IL

• Carson Kelly, ARI
• Mitch Garver, MIN
• Jose Trevino, 
• Danny Jansen, TOR
• Travis d'Arnaud, ATL
• Austin Nola, SD
• Alejandro Kirk, TOR
• Roberto Perez, CLE

Starting Pitchers

Two Start Weeks

Must Add

• Drew Smyly, ATL (@ PIT) - Smyly has been on fire, coming in with a 5 APR over the last three weeks. In his last four starts, Smyly has a 1.21 ERA over 22.1 IP, collecting four wins and 21 strikeouts. He faces a  Pittsburgh offense that is sneaky-tough at the top but has mostly black holes in the second half. The Pirates only have a 22.1% K% vs LHP in 2021 but their .286 wOBA against them is the worst in baseball.
• Ross Stripling, TOR (@ TB) - The Rays offense is pretty mediocre against right-handers, posting a .314 wOBA and 26.4% K% against them for the year, with a .295 wOBA and 27.8% K% since June 1. Stripling has rolled over his last four starts, with a 2.31 ERA, including his last start when he allowed just one run in 5.2 innings to these same Rays, striking out five.
• Patrick Sandoval, LAA (@ SEA) - Sandoval and his 31.7% CSW take on a Seattle team that has a 27.2% K% vs LHP, with a .295 wOBA.

Can Add

• Tarik Skubal, DET (@ MIN) - He's a must-add for the season but Skubal has a tough matchup in his last start before the break, as Minnesota has a .340 wOBA against left-handers since June 1, with just a 20.1% K%.
• Shane McClanahan, TB (vs TOR) - He's in a similar position as Skubal, in that he should be rostered but is faced with a terrible last matchup before the All-Star Break.
• Zach Thompson, MIA (vs LAD) - Ditto one more time for Thompson, who has a tough matchup with the Dodgers.
• Alex Cobb, LAA (@ SEA) - Seattle only has .298 wOBA vs RHP in 2021 but have been much better since June 1, posting a .332 wOBA. However, they do still have a very friendly 26.2% K% (28.0% since June 1).
• Cole Irvin, OAK (@ TEX)
• Mike Minor, KC (vs CIN, at CLE)
• Merril Kelly, ARI (vs COL)
• Chris Flexen, SEA (vs LAA)
• Jon Gray, COL (@ ARI, @ SD)
• Johnny Cueto, SF (vs STL) - The Cardinals don't strike out very much against right-handers (21.8% K% vs RHP) but they don't do much of anything else, either. St. Louis has a .291 wOBA vs RHP this season and a .282 wOBA since June 1. Cueto got roughed up in his last start but facing St. Louis is always a good tonic for a right-hander to get back on track.
• Tyler Anderson, PIT (@ NYM)
• Kwang-Hyun Kim, STL (@ SF, @ CHC) - Only if you can sit him against the Giants.
• Ryan Weathers, SD (vs WSH, vs COL)
• Logan Gilbert, SEA (vs NYY)

Desperate Adds

• Steven Matz, NYM (@ BAL, @ TB) - You probably shouldn't be this desperate and definitely do not start Matz versus the lefty-crushing, Baltimore Orioles.
• Joe Ross, WSH (@ SF) - Ross has been really good over his last five starts, posting a 1.95 ERA over 32.1 IP, with 33 strikeouts and only six walks. But I'm being really careful with a road start versus the Giants, who have been tough on right-handers all season (.331 wOBA, 23.1% K%) but especially so lately. Since June 1, San Francisco has .364 wOBA vs RHP, with just a 22.0% K%.
• Ryan Yarbrough, TB (vs TOR) - I'm currently in "don't go out of my way to stream against Toronto" - mode.
• JT Brubaker, PIT (vs ATL) - You're basically banking on the fact that Atlanta loves striking out versus RHP, posting a 26.9% K% against them since June 1.
• Adrian Houser, MIL (@ NYM)
• Adbert Alzolay, CHC (vs PHI)
• Zach Davies, CHC (vs PHI)
• Kolby Allard, TEX (vs DET, vs OAK)
• Eric Lauer, MIL (vs CIN)
• Jameson Taillon, NYY (@ SEA, @ HOU)

Notable IL

• Austin Gomber, COL
• Josh Fleming, TB
• Spencer Turnbull, DET
• Matthew Boyd, DET
• Huascar Ynoa, ATL
• Logan Webb, SF
• Michael Pineda, MIN
• Erick Fedde, WSH
• Madison Bumgarner, ARI
• David Peterson, NYM

Relief Pitchers

Keep in mind that with relievers, points scored can be deceiving. Most scoring systems make it pretty difficult for even the best non-closers to score elite points, making them very reliant on unpredictable wins. You simply need the save points to really do damage. AKA, when you see totally random names hit the leaderboard (particularly the 14-Day one), it's probably because they happened to get a few wins and/or a lot of usage. If a reliever doesn't have an established role, tread carefully.

One note about ownership; because ESPN uses nine open pitching slots, as opposed to dedicated slots for RP/SP, relievers tend to be lighter owned than on other sites.

Must Adds

• Daniel Bard, COL - Let's not get crazy and claim he's Coors-proof but Daniel Bard just keeps on moving, now with a 20 APR for the year and a 16 APR over the last two weeks. Even better, he's getting ready to go on the road.

Can Adds

• Anyone else...Joakim Soria, I guess? Actually, no. Don't do that to yourself. I'm sticking with my original answer of, "anyone else".

Notable IL

• Lucas Sims, CIN
• Tejay Antone, CIN
• Michael Fulmer, DET
• Cesar Valdez, BAL
• Daniel Hudson, WSH
• Aaron Bummer, CHW
• Ryan Thompson, TB
• Ryan Tepera, CHC

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