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Nick Mariano's Baller Ranks is a weekly fantasy baseball rankings list for the top 101 starting pitchers. He ranks and analyzes updated pitcher values for Week 9.
The penultimate week of the 2020 fantasy baseball season is here, meaning you need the Week 9 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks to help analyze where the top 101 SPs stand moving forward. You can check out my weekly Top 101 Relief Pitcher Baller Ranks as well.
David Emerick rolled out an introduction to our Baller Ranks here -- I suggest you read for a full explanation of our purpose, but the TL;DR is here we're providing a one-stop-shop for pitcher and hitter valuation. We'll explore value produced to-date, their current standing, and provide context with analysis.
And for those who want stats like the usual 5x5 categories, strikeout rates, Called + Swinging Strike (CSW) rates, xwOBA, and more on a decked-out spreadsheet, we've got you covered - you can view the full Week 9 Top 101 SP Baller Ranks core sheet here. I encourage you to click that.
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Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 9
| Rank | $ | Tier | Player | EV | $PV | Trend | Notes |
| 1 | 43.0 | 1 | Shane Bieber | 21.7 | 43.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 42.0 | 1 | Jacob deGrom | 18.7 | 40.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Oh my, is deGrom finally getting run support?? |
| 3 | 37.0 | 1 | Yu Darvish | 17.6 | 37.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 4 | 35.0 | 2 | Clayton Kershaw | 8.1 | 35.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 5 | 33.0 | 2 | Gerrit Cole | 8.0 | 33.0 | 0.0 ▬ | HRs have been an issue, but 19 K & 1 ER vs. BAL x2 is great. |
| 6 | 31.0 | 2 | Trevor Bauer | 15.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 7 | 29.0 | 2 | Aaron Nola | 13.5 | 29.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 8 | 29.0 | 2 | Max Scherzer | 13.1 | 27.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 9 | 27.0 | 2 | Luis Castillo | 13.7 | 25.0 | 2.0 ▲ | That CG against the Cards felt great, good skills win out. |
| 10 | 25.0 | 3 | Lucas Giolito | 16.6 | 29.0 | -4.0 ▼ | Still an ace in 7-of-10 outings this year, you'll take it. |
| 11 | 25.0 | 3 | Dinelson Lamet | 12.7 | 23.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 12 | 23.0 | 3 | Kenta Maeda | 15.1 | 22.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Blowing away my highest hopes for him, love to see it. |
| 13 | 23.0 | 3 | Dylan Bundy | 15.8 | 17.5 | 5.5 ▲ | |
| 14 | 22.0 | 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 8.2 | 22.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 15 | 22.0 | 3 | Lance Lynn | 10.1 | 18.5 | 3.5 ▲ | |
| 16 | 22.0 | 3 | Jack Flaherty | 3.7 | 25.0 | -3.0 ▼ | Hasn't gone past 5 IP in any start since Opening Day. |
| 17 | 20.0 | 3 | Sonny Gray | 11.9 | 22.0 | -2.0 ▼ | Back-to-back implosions, but draws PIT at home next. |
| 18 | 20.0 | 3 | Zac Gallen | 10.9 | 23.0 | -3.0 ▼ | Looked mortal last 2 starts, but RoS schedule still a beaut. |
| 19 | 18.5 | 4 | Carlos Carrasco | 8.2 | 16.0 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 20 | 17.5 | 4 | Blake Snell | 3.6 | 14.0 | 3.5 ▲ | |
| 21 | 15.5 | 4 | Corbin Burnes | 15.5 | 10.0 | 5.5 ▲ | Stock ascending faster than his batted balls allowed in 2019. |
| 22 | 15.0 | 4 | Zack Greinke | 15.0 | 20.0 | -5.0 ▼ | |
| 23 | 14.0 | 4 | Zach Plesac | 9.4 | 14.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 24 | 14.0 | 4 | Brandon Woodruff | 13.2 | 12.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Had been sliding, but 7 IP, 1 H, 12 K is a statement. |
| 25 | 14.0 | 4 | Kyle Hendricks | 11.5 | 11.0 | 3.0 ▲ | |
| 26 | 13.0 | 4 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 8.8 | 9.5 | 3.5 ▲ | |
| 27 | 12.0 | 4 | Aaron Civale | 11.1 | 14.0 | -2.0 ▼ | |
| 28 | 11.0 | 5 | Charlie Morton | 3.4 | 13.0 | -2.0 ▼ | Good form in 2 starts since IL, but he won't be pushed. |
| 29 | 11.0 | 5 | Mike Clevinger | 2.8 | 11.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Has only walked one batter in each of last 3 starts. |
| 30 | 10.0 | 5 | Jesus Luzardo | 5.7 | 9.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 31 | 9.5 | 5 | Jose Berrios | 6.4 | 9.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 32 | 9.5 | 5 | Andrew Heaney | 12.2 | 9.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 33 | 9.5 | 5 | Zach Davies | 10.3 | 9.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Faces LAD next, but had 7 IP, 2 ER against them in August. |
| 34 | 9.5 | 5 | Marco Gonzales | 11.7 | 8.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 35 | 9.0 | 5 | Sixto Sanchez | 6.1 | 8.0 | 1.0 ▲ | The fish that was promised? Just wrecking MLB batters. |
| 36 | 9.0 | 5 | Zack Wheeler | 12.3 | 14.0 | -5.0 ▼ | Learn how to put on pants, c'mon. |
| 37 | 9.0 | 5 | Kevin Gausman | 8.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 ▲ | Kevin is throwing gas, man. |
| 38 | 8.5 | 5 | Masahiro Tanaka | 6.4 | 6.5 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 39 | 8.5 | 5 | Ian Anderson | 2.9 | 4.0 | 4.5 ▲ | Getting lucky, but creating lots of good fortune as well. |
| 40 | 8.5 | 5 | Triston McKenzie | 4.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 ▲ | Matchup against MIN will be a good test. |
| 41 | 8.5 | 5 | Tyler Mahle | 5.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 ▲ | |
| 42 | 8.0 | 6 | Tony Gonsolin | 7.4 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 43 | 8.0 | 6 | Cristian Javier | 2.1 | 8.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 44 | 8.0 | 6 | Patrick Corbin | 5.8 | 9.5 | -1.5 ▼ | Encouraging bounceback with 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 K vs. ATL. |
| 45 | 8.0 | 6 | Chris Bassitt | 5.5 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 46 | 8.0 | 6 | German Marquez | 13.1 | 8.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 47 | 6.5 | 7 | Dustin May | 3.8 | 8.0 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| 48 | 5.5 | 7 | Dallas Keuchel | 12.0 | 8.0 | -2.5 ▼ | Hopefully returning from IL this week, re-injury risk. |
| 49 | 5.0 | 7 | Deivi Garcia | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 50 | 4.5 | 7 | Pablo Lopez | 8.8 | 9.0 | -4.5 ▼ | Two bad starts in a row, we have little time for patience. |
| 51 | 4.5 | 7 | Framber Valdez | 10.6 | 4.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 52 | 4.0 | 7 | Zach Eflin | 6.3 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 53 | 4.0 | 7 | Michael Pineda | 4.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 54 | 4.0 | 7 | Garrett Richards | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 55 | 4.0 | 7 | Julio Urias | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 56 | 4.0 | 7 | Adam Wainwright | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 57 | 4.0 | 7 | Max Fried | 14.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | On IL for left-side muscle spasm, hopes to return Sept. 16. |
| 58 | 4.0 | 7 | Dylan Cease | -0.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 59 | 3.5 | 8 | Frankie Montas | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 60 | 3.0 | 8 | Brady Singer | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Will he face Detroit next? Or Milwaukee? |
| 61 | 3.0 | 8 | Walker Buehler | 2.6 | 20.0 | -17.0 ▼ | That blister's back and LAD has no reason to push Buehler. |
| 62 | 2.5 | 8 | Chris Paddack | 4.2 | 9.0 | -6.5 ▼ | His good-bad start pattern was interrupted by ankle sprain. |
| 63 | 2.5 | 8 | Sean Manaea | 8.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Four consecutive wins, looking good - but Coors awaits. |
| 64 | 2.5 | 8 | Matthew Boyd | -1.1 | 4.0 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| 65 | 2.0 | 8 | Danny Duffy | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 66 | 2.0 | 8 | Brad Keller | 7.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 67 | 2.0 | 8 | Justin Dunn | -1.1 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 68 | 2.0 | 8 | Justus Sheffield | 8.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ | 5 QS in his last six outings, K's ramping up again. |
| 69 | 2.0 | 8 | Randy Dobnak | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 70 | 1.5 | 9 | Dakota Hudson | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 71 | 1.5 | 9 | Antonio Senzatela | 6.1 | 2.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 72 | 1.5 | 9 | Dane Dunning | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 73 | 1.5 | 9 | Jordan Montgomery | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Looks amazing at times, but consistency remains an issue. |
| 74 | 1.5 | 9 | Jose Urquidy | -0.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 75 | 1.5 | 9 | Sandy Alcantara | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 76 | 1.5 | 9 | Ryan Yarbrough | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Ugly return from IL, eye Sept. 15 start vs. WSH. |
| 77 | 1.5 | 9 | Taijuan Walker | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 78 | 1.5 | 9 | Yusei Kikuchi | 9.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 79 | 1.5 | 9 | Rich Hill | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 80 | 1.5 | 9 | Seth Lugo | 4.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 81 | 1.5 | 9 | Dean Kremer | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Did well against Yanks in rematch, faces Rays next. |
| 82 | 1.5 | 9 | Kyle Freeland | 7.1 | 2.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 83 | 1.0 | 10 | Joe Musgrove | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Looks good upon return, but only 7 IP in two starts. |
| 84 | 1.0 | 10 | Alec Mills | 2.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 85 | 1.0 | 10 | Josh Fleming | 0.1 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 86 | 1.0 | 10 | Mike Minor | 2.9 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 87 | 1.0 | 10 | Griffin Canning | 3.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 88 | 1.0 | 10 | Luke Weaver | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 89 | 1.0 | 10 | Spencer Turnbull | 6.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 90 | 1.0 | 10 | Tarik Skubal | -0.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 91 | 1.0 | 10 | J.A. Happ | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 92 | 1.0 | 10 | John Means | -2.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Showed life against NYM last time, monitor next start. |
| 93 | 1.0 | 10 | Johnny Cueto | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 94 | 1.0 | 10 | Josh Lindblom | 2.9 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 95 | 1.0 | 10 | Adrian Houser | 3.8 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 96 | 1.0 | 10 | David Peterson | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 97 | 1.0 | 10 | Chad Kuhl | -0.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 98 | 1.0 | 10 | Kris Bubic | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 99 | 1.0 | 10 | Carlos Martinez | -0.9 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 100 | 1.0 | 10 | Brandon Bielak | -3.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 101 | 1.0 | 10 | Jakob Junis | -1.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
Starting Pitcher Movers of Note
Corbin Burnes (SP, Brewers): After a dreadful 2019 campaign where every other pitch of his seemed to leave the yard, Burnes has evolved in ‘20. He hasn’t given up more than three earned in a start this year, but some control issues and pitch limits capped his ceiling. He’d only pitched more than four innings once in his first four outings, but he’s put the pedal to the metal recently.
With a whopping zero earned surrendered in his last three outings alongside a 28/3 K/BB ratio, Burnes is demanding the spotlight. We must keep both feet on the ground and recognize that two of those starts came against PIT and DET, but the man still has to execute. He lines up to face the Cards next and is locked into fantasy lineups.
Kevin Gausman (SP, Giants): I realize rostering the Giants is tough right now given the Covid-19 delay, but Gausman now has 62 strikeouts in 46 ⅔ IP with a clean 3.06 xFIP and 3.24 SIERA behind the 4.05 ERA. He walked into Coors and earned the win by allowing just two solo homers over five innings on Sept. 1 before crushing the D-backs with six innings of one-run ball, once again allowing just two hits. It helps that his splitter is absolutely devastating:
Kevin Gausman’s splitter rankings (min. 150 thrown):
BA: .127-1st
xBA: .142-1st
SLG: .270-1st
xSLG: .227-1st
wOBA: .175-1st
xwOBA: .171-1st— Brandon Blet MVP ? (@Belt_SZN2) September 8, 2020
Add on that he’s averaging just 1.5 walks per start and you’ve got a healthy foundation to work off. Out of 63 SPs with at least 40 IP (as of Sept. 12), Gausman’s 27.8% K-BB% is sixth. The five ahead of him are Shane Bieber, Jacob deGrom, Aaron Nola, Trevor Bauer, and Yu Darvish. He’s just ahead of Gerrit Cole. Is that promising company? I think so.
Ian Anderson (SP, Braves): Anderson was bounced by Miami after three frames on Sept. 7, but the rookie rebounded with a career-high seven innings and nine strikeouts against the Nationals on Saturday. The shutout frames dropped his ERA to 1.64 alongside a 0.91 WHIP with a zesty 11.05 K/9 to boot.
I don’t love the 10 walks (4.09 BB/9) and seeing the .184 BABIP over 22 IP, but his 59.2% groundball rate leaves little room for big damage and that clip usually doesn’t accompany heavy K’s. His groundball rate in the minors usually hugged 45% so we must be mindful of the sample size, but ignoring hot streaks with rookies that MLB hitters haven’t figured out yet is a losing recipe.
Pablo Lopez (SP, Marlins): It can’t all be feel-good stories, as López has snuffed out his hot start with two absolute clunkers. Yielding five runs over four frames against Tampa Bay was understandable -- a blip, perhaps. But then he gave up a disastrous seven runs on four hits and four walks in just 1 ⅔ IP at Atlanta on Sept. 9, showing little semblance of command.
Those are two talented lineups, but he gets another one in the Phillies next (on Monday). I’m not saying he’s an instant drop or lost cause, but the risk profile has increased just like his ERA has skyrocketed from 2.10 to 4.50 in a blink. Ditto Matthew Boyd, who gave up seven earned with four walks on Sept. 9 as well.
Brady Singer (SP, Royals): Singer celebrated his first start in a month that wasn’t against the Twins or White Sox by taking a no-hitter against Cleveland into the eighth inning on Sept. 10. He would lose it with four outs to go, but eight shutout frames for the win is nothing to scoff at.
And seriously, he had faced the Twins or White Sox in five consecutive starts going back to early August. That’s difficult for anyone to navigate, let alone a rookie. It’s unclear whether he’ll face the Tigers on Sept. 16 or wait until Sept. 18 to take on the Brewers. Either one is okay, but obviously Detroit is the preferable draw.
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