Introducing the MLB Baller Ranks

July 18, 2020

David Emerick introduces The Baller Ranks, a weekly ranking system for 2020 fantasy baseball leagues to identify risers and fallers.

It’s my extraordinary pleasure to introduce The Baller Ranks, an up-to-date rankings sheet for player values. We wanted to roll this out back in March, but 2020 has had other ideas...

Ideally, The Baller Ranks are not a set of pre-season rankings or draft recommendations. They are designed to be an in-season set of data-based rankings to keep you current and help you navigate add-drop moves and trades. Specific dollar values are based on 12-team, 5x5, $260 budget leagues, but the overall rankings are relatively easy to apply to your league size.

For now, I’d love some feedback @D_Emerick about the design, about information, about what you want from a weekly rankings sheet. My hope is that the rankings here are helpful to you as we think about the return of baseball, but I also want to hear from readers and fantasy managers who think intensely about both the game of baseball and the game of fantasy baseball.

Overview

My goal with this format was to do a few things. I wanted to better illustrate comparative value. Hopefully, the format should better illustrate the value difference between players, but this first publication is just a taste of the larger product. Unfortunately, there is still no baseball, so this first list is based on our updated RotoBaller Rankings. In that regard, this isn’t really The Baller Ranks list I had intended, but it lets us roll out the updated MLB rankings in a new format. Truth be told, I think this pilot has about 40% of my intended content, but we need real games for the rest. Future versions will have more information about player performance and status.

I designed The Baller Ranks because I’ve always wanted a tool like this one: a big-picture update on what’s going on around the league. Until we do get real games, I hope this gives you some baseball content to consider and that you’ll share your thoughts with me. I’m actively soliciting your feedback. I may not be able to use all of it, and some of your ideas may take time to implement, but I want to hear about how I can make this tool better for you.

As you look at this installation, you’ll see two of the planned sheets. The first is the core sheet, which ranks players by position, lists previous rankings, trends, and includes a blurb on some of the more significant movers. The second is the rankings sheet, which arranges all of the players into a single sheet so that owners can think more critically about relative value, transactions, and how to build their teams.

For multi-position players, I’ve tried to put players at their most valuable position. If you think that I’ve placed someone in the wrong column, let me know because that impacts their overall value as well as the position on the table. If you think you a player is underrated and needs to be added/moved higher, or if you think a player is overrated and should get bumped, let me know as well.

With all of that out of the way, here are my takeaways for this first sheet. When we get to the season, the esteemed Nick Mariano will handle pitchers. My job is just to focus on hitters. We’ll start with the general commentary and move into specific players in the second half.

View The Baller Ranks Core Sheet here

Players Dealing with COVID-19 Diagnosis

Let’s get this out of the way first. Some of these diagnoses are built into the values, and some of them are new enough that my fellow rankers didn’t have time to do updates. For this version, I’m not going to do that unilaterally, especially because we’re still learning more. For now, I think I’d be discounting symptomatic players by 10-20% of their value (5-10 games) and leaving asymptomatic players at their current value or reducing them by only a dollar or two.

Universal DH

Hitters likely to benefit from a universal DH saw a small uptick, but the value changes are somewhat mixed. The biggest gainers were solid to middling hitters like Howie Kendrick, C.J. Cron, Avisail Garcia, and Ryan Braun. Each of those players has decent lefty-righty splits. Their teams wanted them on the field more, so the universal DH moves them from playing four or five times a week to five or six. That marginal increase will have a meaningful impact on their end-of-season value.  Additionally, fantasy managers might hope to see Garrett Cooper, Dominic Smith, Ryan McMahon, Garrett Hampson, Sam Hilliard, Francisco Mejia, Josh Rojas, Dylan Carlson, Austin Riley, and Nick Senzel benefit from a universal DH.

There are a number of other players where the benefit is less clear cut because they were already going to see nearly full playing time or because other players on their team may benefit from that playing time more than they do. Those include guys like JD Davis, Joc Pederson, Eric Thames, Asdrubal Cabrera, Starlin Castro, and Miguel Andujar.

Returners from Injury

Some injured players are returning to ranks that were near their previous highs.

Players like James Paxton, Mike Clevinger, and Justin Verlander are rebounding close to their original rankings. While it makes sense to see player value rebound once they are healthy, we haven’t actually seen these players fully healthy, and we have to be concerned about the increased likelihood that these players will be injured again this season. I’m particularly concerned about the three pitchers above, but there is some reason to be concerned about sluggers like Eugenio Suarez and Aaron Judge.

Geography-Based Value Changes

Rankers seemed unsure of how to handle the new schedule and regional effects. Much of that is because schedules have just been released and because strength-of-schedule analysis has usually been more characteristic of fantasy football than fantasy baseball.

The most likely scenario is that teams will be realigned into regional divisions, and while the Central looks like the weakest of those divisions, there doesn’t seem to be any coherent logic for how rankers weighed the impact of that realignment.

Relievers

One point of consensus about dealing with a shortened MLB season is that pitchers will see fewer innings and that we’re more likely to see teams using strategies closer to the Tampa Bay Rays. That’s done different things for the starters market, but it seems like it should be reducing the value and rankings of closers and relievers. Based on team strategy and greater distribution of innings and saves, we’ll probably see more closers worth one or two dollars and fewer who are worth eight to ten. Acquiring saves always has a high degree of variance, but if we’re seeing teams use their best reliever in the 7^th and 8^th more frequently and demoting a struggling closer more quickly than we’d expect that to be built into the rankings more.

Movers of Note

Jose Abreu (1B, White Sox): My best guess at Abreu’s rise has to do with potential regional realignment and chatter about the improved White Sox lineup. To that end, the consensus seems to be that Moncado and Jimenez will take a step forward. Tim Anderson will hold onto most of his gains, and EE will hold off father time for one more season.

That confidence in the White Sox lineup combines with a declining sentiment about Anthony Rizzo’s value, and I sorted through a handful of drafts to see Abreu going just ahead or just behind Rizzo. That might be a sense that Abreu is the last first baseman at that tier or that the consensus is that Abreu is a better bet than Rizzo. I don’t concur with that judgment, but that sentiment seems to be out there.

Jonathan Villar (2B/SS, Marlins): Villar’s modest drop in ranking doesn’t make a ton of sense to me because the shortened season means there will be less time to find steals on the waiver wire. I would have expected that to boost Villar’s value, not drop it. Granted, the Miami schedule is not particularly favorable, but Villar still seems like a good bet to produce.

Villar is generally regarded as the least desirable of the early-round stolen base options. However, given the pre-season focus on acquiring speed, the ranking drop seems counter-intuitive. His ADP has held steady over the last month, so drafters Villar’s perception has remained the same.

Howie Kendrick (1B/2B/3B, Nationals): The overwhelming consensus is that Howie Kendrick is the hands-down winner of the DH rule change. I know I wrote about him above, but if I needed power and a second baseman, I’d probably be targeting Kendrick over McMahon, Hampson, or Biggio.

Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson (2B, Rockies): As Nick Gaut recently noted, the Rockies appear to have an unfriendly home schedule (19 of their home games are against the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Athletics, and Padres). The combination will undermine the positive effects of Coors Field.

Eugenio Suarez (3B, Reds): The shoulder injury that could have derailed Suarez’s season has now had three additional months to heal. Before his surgery, Suarez’s ADP was 58. After the surgery was announced, Suarez was being taken around pick 90. His ADP has rebounded to 73 (a good match to his value here). That rebound is justified, and Suarez was arguably undervalued before the injury.

Shoulder injuries can rob power from sluggers, but the Reds have declared Suarez to be 100% healthy. The combination of skills and time to heal suggest that he’s appropriately valued in these current rankings.

Amed Rosario (SS, Mets): The former top-prospect flashed better power and plate discipline in 2019, and there was talk in the off-season that he could be approach 20-20 this season. There’s no health or playing time concerns. His context is the same as Villar’s, so why the change in rank? The hype has died down.

Rosario’s projections are mediocre, and shortstop is so rich with talent that the perception around Rosario has cooled. Mangers can just as easily draft Corey Seager, Jorge Polanco, Gavin Lux, Jean Segura, or Didi Gregorius. Alternatively, the tier above Rosario has stronger assets like Carlos Correa, Tim Anderson, and Marcus Semien.

Mike Trout (OF, Angels): Trout is only down a dollar in our rankings, but that move alone warrants discussion. If Trout misses a single week when his child is born, that’s a 10% hit to his fantasy value for the season. Let me be explicit about one thing here: I think Trout should absolutely take time off and be present for the birth of his child, regardless of how it impacts baseball. My point here is only about how fantasy managers should evaluate his status. If he gets “quarantined” for two weeks, it goes up to 20%. If we’re working mathematically and with total indifference, that puts him in Juan Soto range.

Austin Meadows (OF, Rays): Tampa Bay’s outfielder is entering his third season, and his relative health has suggested that he could shed the “injury-prone” label. It’s not clear whether that label is justified, but it has stuck with Meadows and prompted analysts and owners to question what Meadows will become. To some extent, the change in Meadows’ ranking is tied to the uncertainty about outfielders in the tier below him (Charlie Blackmon, Eloy Jimenez, and Marcell Ozuna). Meadows should also offer more steals and could approach 30-20 pace for this season, a possibility that has pushed him higher in drafts.

Aaron Judge (OF, Yankees): Fantasy managers seem to think they know who Judge is, but there are definitely two distinct opinions about that. One group sees him as an elite talent who has suffered from injury misfortune. The other sees him as a player who will struggle to stay healthy. Judge’s proximity to Giancarlo Stanton is definitely a factor in that perception, and plenty of analysts compare the two players.

The latter perception has calcified this spring. It was revealed that Judge’s shoulder and pectoral discomfort were related to the rib injury from his stress fracture last season. That’s the type of information that prompts fantasy managers to categorize a player with greater confidence. Very few doubt Judge’s ceiling. The question is whether he can be counted on to produce 70 percent of that ceiling.

Joc Pederson (OF, Dodgers): It’s been a strange winter for Joc Pederson. Fantasy owners are now looking at a situation where Pederson is not only an everyday starter for the best lineup in baseball but that he could see an increase in playing time with the universal DH. There’s not a lot of room for Pederson to improve on his 2019, but the current situation suggests he is more likely to repeat it than he once was.

Danny Jansen (C, Blue Jays): Last-year’s fantasy wunderkind at catcher was so bad for the first three months of the season that he became persona non grata on many fantasy squads. However, he assembled above average July and August, and his solid spring this year (.529 BA, 4 HR, 1.953 OPS) combined with the wasteland at catcher to push his value.

The dialogue around Jansen has been about growth and improved approach. In the second half, Jansen forced pitchers to keep the ball in the zone, and he was more aggressive when pitchers were actually in the strike zone. Those two changes helped drive up his barrel rate and performance. It’s a small sample size, and Jansen did struggle at the end of the season, but his current rank is still modest, even for a catcher.

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