SP Strikeout Risers: 2019 Season Review

For the last four seasons, MLB has seen an increase in strikeout rate (K%). Since 2015, K% has increased from 20.4% to 23.0%. We’ve also seen an increase in walk rates and a poorer league-wide ERA. Those trends can make it difficult to assess whether a pitcher is actually better at inducing swings and misses.... Read More

Second-Half Surgers - Hitters to Buy Now

With all the recent emphasis on the MLB draft, striking on prospect call-ups, and finding early-season breakouts, it’s easy to get lured into complacency during the dog days of summer. The All-Star break marks a clean checkpoint and gives us the opportunity to take stock of underperformers or players poised to outperform their current market... Read More

Welcome (Back) to the Show, Willie Calhoun

Despite being 5’8”, Willie Calhoun is widely regarded as one of the best pure hitters in baseball. However, Calhoun’s size and limited defensive abilities have prevented him from earning elite-prospect status and getting the same hype as similarly-talented batters. Despite his limitations and that perception, the reality is that Calhoun profiles as a potential .290... Read More

Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 10

Week 10 provides a number of young arms and a few pitchers whose limitations make them easy to overlook. I’m particularly excited about the Indians’ calling up Zach Plesac. I’m not sure what happens when Mike Clevinger gets back, but Plesac looks like a legitimate SP2 talent. A reminder before we begin: This column focuses... Read More

Griffin Canning (SP, LAA) - Waiver Wire Pickups Week 9

BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues OWNED IN: 33% of Leagues ANALYSIS: You need a top-tier starter who can provide strikeouts, limit baserunners, win games, and provide a strong ERA? If so, why haven’t you added Griffin Canning, who owns a 3.42 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a 28.3 K%? Canning’s numbers in the PCL were... Read More

Alex Verdugo (SP, LAD) - Week 9 Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues OWNED IN: 32% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Only 23 years old, Verdugo owns a 60-grade hit tool and a strong plate approach. In the minors, he was a consistent .300 hitter with pop, but he’s struggled to find playing time in the majors. The concern about Verdugo coming into the... Read More

Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 9

As I'm attempting to fill in for our inimitable Kyle Bishop, I want to point out that pitching help is tough to find, but that history favors owners who are willing to take risks and acknowledge that sometimes old dogs can learn new tricks. This week's waiver wire list features a number of arms which... Read More

Griffin Canning (SP, LAA) - Waiver Wire Pickups Week 8

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues OWNED IN: 21% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Three weeks ago, when the Angels surprised everyone and called up Canning from AAA, the analysis focused on him as a pitcher who was "dominating" the PCL. Those skills and success didn't immediately translate into a great start for Canning, but he's... Read More

Chris Martin (RP, TEX) - Waiver Wire Pickups Week 8

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues OWNED IN: 27% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Since inheriting the Rangers' closing role on May 8, Chris Martin has averaged a strikeout per inning, allowed two hits (one was a home run), managed a .50 WHIP, and provided a 2.25 ERA. The Texas situation is one of the messiest... Read More

Franmil Reyes and the Javy Baez School of Hard Knocks

For almost a month straight, Franmil Reyes did not take a walk. While that’s not a good thing, I’m not convinced that it’s a bad thing either. Since April 18th, Franmil Reyes has hit nine home runs, and that is definitely a good thing. Reyes’ carrying tool is his power. Walks don’t provide him a path... Read More

Pablo Lopez (SP, MIA) - Waiver Wire Pickups Week 7

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues OWNED IN: 17% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Lopez officially lost his prospect status last season when he threw 58.2 innings for the Marlins, and he entered this season as a relative unknown, hidden in the shadows of Caleb Smith's breakout. Despite Lopez's low ownership rate, he owns a 3.80... Read More

David Fletcher (2B/3B/OF, LAA) - Waiver Wire Pickups Week 7

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues OWNED IN: 11% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Fletcher's selling point is simple: He owns a .354 OBP, a .455 SLG and he hits leadoff when the Angels face a right-handed starter. That means that about 60% of the time, Fletcher is hitting just before Mike Trout. Additionally, when he doesn't... Read More

Who Can Breakout in 2019? The Yandy Man Can...

When the Tampa Bay Rays traded Jake Bauers and cash money to acquire Yandy Diaz, it was a move that seemed to prompt both excitement and head scratching. Bauers was already an everyday outfielder who projected as an above average outfielder very soon. Diaz was a toolsy but frustrating player chiseled of the same stuff... Read More

Caleb Smith (SP, MIA) - Waiver Wire Pickups Week 4

BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues OWNED IN: 37% of Leagues ANALYSIS: With a 2.35 ERA and dual eight-strikeout performances against the Mets and Nationals, Caleb Smith has been making waves to start the 2019 season. In 2018, Smith wan an early-season darling, when he showed moments of brilliance. Smith also suffered from some of the... Read More

Christian Walker (1B, ARI) - Waiver Wire Pickups Week 4

BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues OWNED IN: 26% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Walker is 28 years old but just now getting his first test as an everyday player in the majors. Despite being an effective minor leaguer, Walker has struggled in the majors before this season. He’s had trouble with left-handed pitchers, against whom he generates... Read More

Buying and Selling the Young Friars

As a sport, baseball’s greatest cultural advantage might be its roots as a game which begins with the thaw of winter and the arrival of spring. There is nothing more generally inspiring for all fans than the promise of Spring Training and the potential growth of young players. That’s especially true when those prospects play... Read More

Jake Bauers (1B/OF, CLE) – Week 2 Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ team leagues OWNED IN: 32% of leagues ANALYSIS: Hyped in some circles before the season, Jake Bauers has seen his ownership levels drop after a shaky start to this season. Modest numbers last season haven’t been enough to inspire confidence with his .182 average, zero home runs, three runs, and... Read More

Domingo German (SP, NYY) – Week 2 Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ team leagues OWNED IN: 26% of leagues ANALYSIS: After a surprisingly effective 2018, German entered the pre-season without a clear spot in the Yankees' rotation. After Luis Severino’s injury, however, the Yankees rewarded the 26-year-old by naming him their fifth starter. In two outings, he has two wins, a 1.64... Read More

Jed Lowrie (2B, NYM) – Week 2 Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ team leagues OWNED IN: 27% of leagues ANALYSIS: As a productive and reasonably healthy player for the last two seasons, Lowrie has been undervalued as a useful asset for an underrated Oakland Athletics offense. He’s hurt again to start this season, and his timeline is unclear. However, managers with a... Read More

Finding Under and Overvalued SS Using Expected Draft Values

We've been rolling out our Expected Draft Values series, starting with Nick Mariano's look into some undervalued players and overvalued players.As draft season winds down today, we're going to give you some undervalued and overvalued players who qualify at shortstop. As a quick primer, Expected Draft Value is the value you would historically expect, on average, from... Read More

Where Are The Elite Starters? Looking for 2019’s deGrom

Researching elite starters has taught me a number of things about pitcher development. One of the most valuable has been the reminder that progress is never linear. Blake Snell and Justin Verlander present recent examples of that. Verlander has been in “obvious decline” on two occasions now, and both times he’s bounced back. 2016 Blake... Read More

Dave Emerick's 10 Bold Predictions for 2019

I'll openly acknowledge that I don't really do bold predictions. I sit, read, think, and then watch the players play. If I see something, maybe I'll write an article. But in the spirit of fun, I've put together my own version of 10 Bold Predictions that will definitely, almost probably come to pass.   Paul... Read More

Where Do Elite Starters Come From?

Among expert drafts, starting pitchers are coming off the board earlier and more rapidly than in previous years. For instance, the LABR mixed league saw nine starters drafted in the first two rounds in comparison to just six in 2018 and five in 2017. Pitcher selection in expert drafts has been somewhat more aggressive than... Read More

ADP Champ or Chump - Nathan Eovaldi and Dallas Keuchel

Somewhere Dallas Keuchel is looking at Nathan Eovaldi’s four-year contract for $67.5 million and is wondering how he remains unsigned. He might be having similar thoughts about Patrick Corbin’s six-year, $140 million contract, but at least Corbin will be 29 to start the season and is coming off a Cy Young-caliber season. By contrast, Keuchel... Read More

Are Elite Pitchers Undervalued?

After San Francisco Giants’ president Farhan Zaidi announced that the team might use an opener this season, Madison Bumgarner messaged Bruce Bochy: “If you use an opener in my game I’m walking right out of the ballpark.” In addition to giving us the most Madison Bumgarner quote of all time, the news prompted me to... Read More

ADP Champ or Chump - Nelson Cruz and Shohei Ohtani

For fantasy managers, a player with only DH or Utility eligibility can be difficult to own because he creates lineup issues that limit flexibility. For the last decade, Nelson Cruz has been one of the most prolific hitters, and he’s shown few signs of slowing down, except for his shrinking defensive capability. Similarly, Shohei Ohtani... Read More

ADP Champ or Chump - Josh Hader and Arodys Vizcaino

Recent seasons have shown how a great relief corps can sometimes be a cheap and effective way to bolster a team. Moreover, the move to convert semi-viable starters to relief pitchers has increased the number of legitimately good relievers rather than hoping to luck into the good Joel Hanrahan (excellent for two years, unusable otherwise).... Read More

What I Learned in My First Slow Mock Expert Draft

Over the years, I’ve done hundreds of mock drafts, maybe even thousands. However, as someone relatively new to formal writing about fantasy baseball, I’ve never been part of an organization that ran a slow mock draft. I recently took part in RotoBaller’s Dynasty Mock Draft, and boy was it ever SLOW. We started this thing... Read More

ADP Champ or Chump - Nicholas Castellanos and Justin Upton

After the third tier of outfielders, fantasy owners have a few options before they find themselves left with only OF3-type candidates. Former teammates, Nicholas Castellanos and Justin Upton are the 24th and 25th outfielders going in drafts. They’re separated by 10 picks in ADP, at 87 and 97 respectively. Upton has the advantage in history... Read More

ADP Champ or Chump - Eduardo Escobar and Paul DeJong

In the past two years, baseball has seen an explosion in the number of shortstops with legitimate home run power. Everyone from Francisco Lindor to Tim Anderson seems capable of belting 20 dingers on an annual basis. Most of those players are being drafted in the first 10 rounds or so, but both of our... Read More